caa verification report · 2020-07-31 · taf performance apr 2019 jul 2019 oct 2019 jan 2020 apr...

TAF performance

Apr 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 Apr 20200.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

Latest CV34 value:0.893

SQI CompositeCivil 15 Composite Civil 34 Composite Target (0.878)

CAA Verification ReportCAA service performance:June 2020

The Met Office provides verification of TAF forecasts for UK Civilairports against METAR observations (including AUTO METARreports).

The box to the right shows how many of the composite 34 airportslist currently have a 12-month ’Service Quality Index’ (SQI) scoreabove the target.

Below and overleaf are a series of plots showing the SQI scorein relation to the agreed performance measure, split into regions.

Also provided is a 36-month SQI plot from the composite resultswhich is designed to smooth out seasonal fluctuations whichoccur.

27 airports out of the 34 which comprisethe composite SQI list are currentlyexceeding the rolling 12 month SQItarget:

Apr 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 Apr 20200.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98SQI: Scotland West Region

Civil 34 CompositeEGPF

EGPKEGPO

Target

Apr 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 Apr 20200.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98SQI: Scotland East Region

Civil 34 CompositeEGPH

EGPDEGPE

EGPBEGPM

EGPA Target

Jan 2019 Apr 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 Apr 20200.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98SQI: N. Ireland Region

Civil 34 CompositeEGAA

EGACEGAE

Target

Apr 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 Apr 20200.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98SQI: LTMA Region

Civil 34 CompositeEGLL

EGKKEGSS

EGGWEGLC

EGHIEGMC

EGSHTarget

Apr 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 Apr 20200.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98SQI: Airfields1 Region

Civil 34 CompositeEGCC

EGGPEGNT

EGNMEGCN

EGNJEGNV

Target

Apr 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 Apr 20200.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98SQI: Airfields2 Region

Civil 34 CompositeEGBB

EGGDEGNX

EGFFEGTE

EGHHEGHQ

Target

2018 2019 20200.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98SQI: 36-month mean

Civil 15 Composite Civil 34 Composite Target (0.878)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20202.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

4.00

Roo

tMea

nS

quar

eVe

ctor

Err

or

Latest value:2.90 m/s

Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPaMonthlyRolling 12-month meanTarget

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

Roo

tMea

nS

quar

eE

rror

Latest value:0.57 K

Global Model performance

Northern Hemisphere T+24 Temperature (K) at 250hPaMonthlyRolling 12-month meanTarget

Objective: To ensure airlines can access accurate global upper air model data for effiecient air navigation.

Accurate forecasting of upper wind and temperature is essential for safe and efficient international air travel. TheCAA have agreed targets (shown below) with the Met Office for day 1 forecasts (T+24) taken from our 00 UTC and 12UTC operational Global Model runs for results at 250hPa (which equates to FL340), over the Northern Hemisphere(90N-20N).

The graphs below display the accuracy of these two forecasts, with the smaller the error being a better value forecastto airline operators.

Performance measure: ≤ 2.90m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.57K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values)

Jul2019

Sep2019

Nov2019

Jan2020

Mar2020

May2020

0

1

2

3

4

Timeliness of BUFR data

Count of occasions transmission time target exceeded00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z

Objective: Ensuring flight planning systems receive timely and reliable forecasts of en-route aviationhazards.

As a World Area Forecast Centre (WAFC), significant weather charts to support Global air travel are provided by theMet Office. The timely delivery of the data used to compile these charts is important for airlines flight planning.

The graphs below show the number of occasions per month that a significant weather chart has been transmittedlate, and from which model run it occurred from.

Performance measure: In no more than 3 instances per quarter (99.2%) should the transmission time of 7hrs00mins be exceeded from any of the four model runs.

Aberdeen Heathrow Manchester Norwich Scatsta

March 2020

Sumburgh

Timely TREND forecasts Late/missing TREND

Aberdeen Heathrow Manchester Norwich Scatsta

April 2020

Sumburgh

Aberdeen Heathrow Manchester Norwich Scatsta

May 2020

Sumburgh

Aberdeen Heathrow Manchester Norwich Scatsta

June 2020

Timeliness of TREND forecasts

Sumburgh

Objective: To append landing forecasts to selected airport METARs in time for their global dissemination.

TRENDs are 2 hour ’landing forecasts’ which get appended to METAR reports at selected UK airports. The targetis to append a trend within 7 minutes of the validity time of the observation (nominally 3 minutes from receipt of theMETAR). (Note: This measure excludes duplicate, untimely, automated and non-compliant METARs)

The pie charts below represent timeliness performance for six airports over the most recent four months, with withthe table at the bottom showing the green area in the charts in percentage terms.

Performance measure: Trends appeanded to the METARs at selected airports within 7 minutes of the validity timeof the observation on ≥ 86% of occasions (based on a 12-month rolling mean)

March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020Aberdeen (EGPD) 91.9% 95.9% 94.1% 94.3%Heathrow (EGLL) 89.3% 94.0% 93.3% 96.0%Manchester (EGCC) 88.8% 88.3% 87.9% 87.4%Norwich (EGSH) 87.6% 89.2% 86.2% 83.6%Scatsta (EGPM) 88.6% 94.8% 88.7% 86.5%Sumburgh (EGPB) 90.3% 94.8% 84.8% 86.2%12-month rolling mean 92.9% 92.7% 92.2% 91.8%

TAF timeliness

TAF compliance

SIGMET compliance

Objective: To ensure airlines and pilots have timely access to TAFs.

Reliable provision of TAFs are important to airlines and pilots, to ensure they are fully briefed on theexpected weather conditions at an airport upon arrival.

Around 280 TAFs per day are issued by the Met Office, and the percentage of all these TAFsgenerated in time for inclusion into bulletins generated by NATS are measured (by HH-52 mins).Results from the most recent four months are shown below.

Performance measure: At least 95.5% timely receipt of bulletins.

March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020% timely 95.0% 97.2% 97.6% 96.3%

Objective: To ensure TAFs are compliant with UK and international coding regulations andnot likely to be rejected by flight planning systems.

From a sample of 18 TAFs per day, the table below shows the percentage of these which wereclassified as format compliant during the course of the last 4 months.

Performance measure: At least 98.5% of TAF sample fully compliant

March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020% compliant 99.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Objective: To ensure SIGMETs are compliant with international coding regulations and notlikely to be rejected by flight planning systems.

Checking all issued SIGMETs for each month, the table below shows the number of SIGMETs whichwere classified as compliant during the course of the last 4 months.

Performance measure: At least 98.5% of all SIGMETs compliant

March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020SIGMETs issued 132 76 81 130% Format Compliance 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

GRIB2 timeliness

GRIB2 CB/Icing/Turbulence

HeliBrief Uptime

Objective: Ensuring flight planning systems have timely and reliable forecasts on en-routewind, temperature and hazard data.

The table below shows the number of occasions that operational GRIB2 data sets being issued afterT+4hrs20 over the last 4 months.

Performance measure: ≤ 3 instances per quarter issued late

March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020late GRIB2 2 0 0 0

Objective: Ensuring flight planning systems have timely and reliable forecasts of ’blended * ’en-route aviation hazard data. ( * combined WAFC London & Washington hazard data )

The table below shows the number of occasions of operational GRIB2 CB, Icing and Turbulence datasets being issued after T+4hrs50mins over the last 4 months

Performance measure: ≤ 3 instances per quarter issued late

March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020late GRIB2 1 0 2 0

Objective: To provide a reliable pre-flight weather briefing to support offshore helicopteroperations.

The table below shows HeliBrief uptime (excluding planned maintenance) during the course of thelast 3 months.

Performance measure: 99.6% HeliBrief availability per month (equivalent to 3hrs downtime permonth)

April 2020 May 2020 June 2020OHWeb uptime 100% 99.9% 99.97%

Aberdeen Heathrow Manchester Norwich Scatsta

March 2020

Sumburgh

Timely TREND forecasts Late/missing TREND

Aberdeen Heathrow Manchester Norwich Scatsta

April 2020

Sumburgh

Aberdeen Heathrow Manchester Norwich Scatsta

May 2020

Sumburgh

Aberdeen Heathrow Manchester Norwich Scatsta

June 2020

Annex: Alternate TREND Timeliness

Sumburgh

Objective: To append landing forecasts to selected airport METARs in time for their global dissemination.

This measure examines what percentage of the received METARs (excluding duplicate, untimely, automated and non-compliant METARs) had TREND forecasts appended and sent within 3 minutes of the METAR arriving (for Scottishlocations this time limit is set at 4 minutes).

The pie charts below represent timeliness performance for six airports over the most recent four months, with thetable at the bottom showing the green area in the charts in percentage terms.

Performance measure: Trends appeanded to the METARs at selected airports within 3 minutes of the validity timeof the METAR arriving (for Scottish locations this time is 4 minutes) on ≥ 85% of occasions (based on a 12-monthrolling mean)

March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020Aberdeen (EGPD) 85.8% 88.7% 86.0% 85.1%Heathrow (EGLL) 73.5% 77.6% 77.5% 82.7%Manchester (EGCC) 67.6% 63.4% 61.2% 58.7%Norwich (EGSH) 66.3% 67.2% 58.3% 58.9%Scatsta (EGPM) 78.6% 86.9% 68.4% 70.2%Sumburgh (EGPB) 84.7% 84.2% 77.6% 78.1%12-month rolling mean 79.6% 79.0% 77.9% 77.0%

Generated July 2020 for June 2020 results© Crown copyright 2020

Met Office Tel: 0870 900 0100FitzRoy Road, Exeter Fax: 0870 900 5050Devon EX1 3PB enquiries@metoffice.gov.ukUnited Kingdom www.metoffice.gov.uk