chart 1 average change in employment per firm. chart 2 unfilled job openings
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CHART 1 AVERAGE CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT PER FIRM
-1.3
-0.8
-0.3
0.2
79 82 85 88 91 94 97 '00 '03 '06 '09
Perc
ent
of F
irms
WORKERS PER FIRM
CHART 2UNFILLED JOB OPENINGS
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 '00 '03 '06 '09
Perc
ent
of F
irms
% WITH AT LEAST ONE UNFILLED OPENING
CHART 3
JOB CREATION PLANS
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Perc
ent
of F
irms
% PLAN INCREASE - % PLAN DECREASE
CHART 4PARTICIPATION & EMPLOYMENT RATES
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
Perc
ent
EMPLOYED PARTICIPATION RATE
% OF ADULT POPULATION
CHART 5REPORTED CHANGE IN PAST SALES
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 '00 '03 '06 '09
[% "HIGHER" - % "LOWER", SEAS. ADJ.] Perc
ent
of F
irms
LAST QUARTER VS PREVIOUS QUARTER
CHART 6PREDICTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Perc
ent
of F
irms
PREDICTED ACTUAL
CHART 7REGIONAL JOB CREATIONS PLANS
-15
-10-5
05
1015
2025
N.E.
MID
ATLESC
S ATL
ENCW
SCW
NCM
TNPAC
ALL
CUT JOBS ADD JOBS NET % ADD
PERCENT OF FIRMS NSA: OCTOBER
CHART 8MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
0
5
10
15
20
25
Perc
ent
of
Firm
s
LABOR COST LABOR QUALITYFIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER
CHART 9SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING OWNERS
05
1015202530354045
Perc
ent
of F
irms
INFLATION FINANCING WEAK SALES
CHART 10REGULAR BORROWING ACTIVITY
30
35
40
45
50
55
76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 '00 '03 '06 '09
Perc
ent
of F
irms
AT LEAST ONCE A QUARTER
CHART 11PLANNED CAPITAL OUTLAYS
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 '01 '04 '07
Perc
ent
of F
irms
NEXT 3 TO 6 MONTHS
CHART 12ACTUAL CHANGE IN INVENTORY
(% INCREASING - % REDUCING)
-30-25-20-15-10
-505
1015
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150NET % INCREASING NIPA ACCTS, BILLIONS OF $
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
CHART 13INVENTORY INVESTMENT PLANS
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Perc
ent
of F
irms
% PLAN INCREASE - % PLAN REDUCTIONS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
CHART 14SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT PROBLEMS
-505
1015202530
Perc
ent
of F
irms
% "HARDER" - % "EASIER"
CHART 15EXPECTED CREDIT CONDITIONS
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 '00 '03 '06 '09
(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
Perc
ent
of F
irms
% EXPECT “ EASIER” - “HARDER”
CHART 16SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1986=100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
CHART 17OPTIMISM INDEX COMPONENTS
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Perc
ent
of F
irms
HARD SOFT
HARD: JOB CREATION PLANS, JOBOPENINGS, INVENTORY PLANS AND CAPIAL EXPENDITURE PLANS
CHART 18EXPECTATIONS FOR GENERAL BUSINESS
CONDITIONS IN 6 MONTHS
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
Perc
ent
of F
irms
% "BETTER" - % "WORSE"
CHART 19OUTLOOK FOR BUSINESS EXPANSION
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Perc
ent
of F
irms
% “NOW IS A GOOD TIME”
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Perc
ent
of F
irms
% MAKING AN OUTLAY LAST 6 MONTHS
CHART 20ACTUAL CAPITAL OUTLAYS
LEASING ADDED
CHART 21
INVENTORY SATISFACTION
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
Perc
ent
of F
irms
% "TOO LOW" - % "TOO HIGH"
CHART 22
EXPECTED REAL SALES
-30-20-10
01020304050
Perc
ent
of F
irms
% EXPECT HIGHER - % EXPECT LOWER
CHART 23 EARNINGS TRENDS: %”HIGHER” - %”LOWER”
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Perc
ent
of F
irms
PAST QUARTER VS PREVIOUS QUARTER
RECORD PROFITS
CHART 24PAST & PLANNED PRICE CHANGES
0
10
20
3040
50
60
70
80
Perc
ent
of F
irms
LOWER HIGHER PLAN HIGHER
higher
lower
plans
CHART 25
ACTUAL PRICE INCREASESSEASONALLY ADJUSTED
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Perc
ent
of F
irms
% RAISED - % CUT
CHART 26 CHANGES IN PRICES AND LABOR
COMPENSATION
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Perc
ent
of F
irms
COMPENSATION RAISED PRICES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NET % OF FIRMS
PROFITS
CHART 27COMPENSATION TRENDS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
84 87 90 93 96 99 '02 '05 '08
0
2
4
6
8
10
12INCREASED DECREASED
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
FIRST MONTH IN EACH QUARTER
LEFT SCALE
RIGHT SCALE
CHART 28PLANNED & ACTUAL
LABOR COMPENSATION CHANGES
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Perc
ent
of F
irms
NET % INCREASEDNET % PLAN TO INCREASE
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