climate change and implications for midwest agriculture

Eugene S. Takle and Christopher J. AndersonDepartment of AgronomyClimate Science Program

Iowa State UniversityAmes, IA 50011

gstakle@iastate.edu

Climate Change and Implications for Midwest Agriculture

Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale

27th Conference on Hydrology 93rd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting

Overview

Coupling RCMs to impacts modelsModel coupling and uncertainty (streamflow example)

Impacts examples: Lessons learned

NARCCAP dataFood Security

Impacts Examples: (Lessons Learned)Streamflow (uncertainty, thresholds)*Subsurface tile drainageWind energySolar energySoil carbonExtreme precipitationExtreme wind speeds (wind speed declines, role in ET)Roadway design (time series scenarios, appropriate use of past climate)Building energy use (changing national standards)*Animal agriculture (dairy production, breeding success)Mycotoxin (sequence of specific climate impacts; multiple impact models) Crop yield (timing and amount of precipitation)*

Characterizing and Quantifying Uncertainty

Streamflow vs. Precipitation

Impacts Examples: (Lessons Learned)Streamflow (uncertainty, thresholds)*Subsurface tile drainageWind energySolar energySoil carbonExtreme precipitationExtreme wind speeds (wind speed declines, role in ET)Roadway design (time series scenarios, appropriate use of past climate)Building energy use (changing national standards)*Animal agriculture (dairy production, breeding success)Mycotoxin (sequence of specific climate impacts; multiple impact models) Crop yield (timing and amount of precipitation)*

Total Heating Cooling-60.0-40.0-20.0

0.020.040.060.080.0

100.0Medium Office Energy Change

Ener

gy C

hang

e (%

)

Mason City, Iowa

Total Heating Cooling-60.0-40.0-20.0

0.020.040.060.080.0

100.0

Medium Office Energy Change

Ener

gy C

hang

e (%

)

Atlanta, Georgia

Total Heating Cooling-60.0-40.0-20.0

0.020.040.060.080.0

100.0Secondary School Energy Change

Ener

gy C

hang

e (%

)

Total Heating Cooling-60.0-40.0-20.0

0.020.040.060.080.0

100.0

Secondary School Energy ChangeEn

ergy

Cha

nge

(%)

Climate Change Impact on Building Energy Use

Impacts Examples: (Lessons Learned)Streamflow (uncertainty, thresholds)*Subsurface tile drainageWind energySolar energySoil carbonExtreme precipitationExtreme wind speeds (wind speed declines, role in ET)Roadway design (time series scenarios, appropriate use of past climate)Building energy use (changing national standards)*Animal agriculture (dairy production, breeding success)Mycotoxin (sequence of specific climate impacts; multiple impact models) Crop yield (timing and amount of precipitation)*

2011

2012

18701877188418911898190519121919192619331940194719541961196819751982198919962003201010.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

R² = 0.010782029618847

Total Annual State-Wide Average Precipitation

Year

Tota

l Ave

rage

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

) 1 yearTotals above 40”

7 years3 years

5 years

Totals below 25”2012

Iowa State-Wide Average

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Number of Days with a Maximum Temperature Greater Than or Equal to 100°F

Year

Num

ber o

f Day

s 1974: 71977: 8

1983: 13

1988: 1011 days in 2012

6 days ≥ 100oF in 23 years

Des Moines, IA Airport Data

Harvest Area (2000) for Maize and Soybeans

Soybeans

Maize

NARCCAP Change in JJA Precipitation

NARCCAP Change in JJA Precipitation

Changes in Precipitation Simulated by Four GCM Future Scenario Climates (2050-2000)

Takle, ES, D Gustafson, R Beachy, GC Nelson, D Mason-D’Croz, and A Palazzo, 2011: US Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures. Int’l Conf. on Climate Change and Food Security. Chinese Academy of Agriculural Sciences, Beijing, China.

Changes in Simulated Maize Yields Under Four GCM Future Scenario Climates (2050-2000)

Takle, ES, D Gustafson, R Beachy, GC Nelson, D Mason-D’Croz, and A Palazzo, 2011: US Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures. Int’l Conf. on Climate Change and Food Security. Chinese Academy of Agriculural Sciences, Beijing, China.

Changes in Simulated Soybean Yields Under Four GCM Future Scenario Climates (2050-2000)

Takle, ES, D Gustafson, R Beachy, GC Nelson, D Mason-D’Croz, and A Palazzo, 2011: US Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures. Int’l Conf. on Climate Change and Food Security. Chinese Academy of Agriculural Sciences, Beijing, China.

Summary

Pay attention to model uncertainty before jumping to conclusions about climate change

Each impacts model seems to bring its own set of climate model interpretation issues

Evaluation of mid-century food security is complex and needs both high resolution climate and pest/pathogen modeling in addition to crop modeling

For More Information:

Climate Science ProgramIowa State University

http://climate.engineering.iastate.edu/http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/

gstakle@iastate.edu