climate outlook – may 2010 el nino dissipates; neutral or la nina conditions expected by september
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Climate Outlook – May 2010
El Nino Dissipates; Neutralor La Nina Conditions
Expected by September
Stronger El Niño
StrongerLa Niña
El Nino
La Nina
now
FMA 2010precip anom
FMA precipcomposEl Nino
wetdry
wetdry
Verification: G: globe T: tropics
this (meanforcst 1997→)
rpss: G 0.019 (0.008)T 0.031 (0.015)
likelihood:G 0.009 (0.004)T 0.015 (0.008)
Heidke:G 0.077 (0.042)T 0.112 (0.068)
GROC: G 0.557 (0.539) T 0.577 (0.565)
FMA 2010preciptercilecateg
FMA 2010 precip probabforecast frommid-Jan
Verification of Recent Season Precipitation Forecast
Verification: G: globe T: tropics
this (meanforcst 1997→)
rpss: G 0.271 (0.114)T 0.473 (0.177)
likelihood:G 0.146 (0.054)T 0.291 (0.090)
Heidke:G 0.467 (0.301)T 0.727 (0.414)
GROC: G 0.717 (0.574) T 0.820 (0.626)
FMA 2010 temptercilecateg
FMA 2010 temp probabforecast frommid-Jan
Verification of Recent Season Temperature Forecast
Southern Oscillation
o
.
.D
T
ENSO-related Sea Level Pressure Seesaw PatternSouthern Oscillation Index
Last week’s SST anomaly|||||||||||
--------------------------------------------------------------------
OutgoingLongwaveRadiationAnomalies 5N – 5S
ClimatePredictionCenterNCEP
*************
maximum influenceon climate
Stronger La Niña
StrongerEl Niño
**** **** *******
mid-Mar
mid-Apr
mid-May
May2008
Zonal WindsReturn to Average El Nino Disspates to
ENSO-neutralBelow-Average Thermocline Depth Takes Over from West
May2009
May2010
Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
mid-April 2010,
& mid-May2010
neutral ENSO
weak
+
=
MJO
Neutral(-) ENSO
current
(SST, sea level pressure, winds, cloudiness, convection)
Nino3.4 SST anomaly forecasts from Apr
Nino3.4 SST anomaly forecasts from May
from April
from May
May 2010 SST forecasts(plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right)
MEAN
PLUS
MINUS
New climate forecasts from May 20, 2010
E North Pacific
JJAS
NTC 45% 35% 20%
ACE 40% 35% 25%
Tropical Cyclone ForecastsMay 2010
NTC = Number of Tropical CyclonesACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy
West N Pacific JASO
NTC 25% 35% 40%
ACE 30% 40% 30%
North Atlantic
JJA
NTC 15% 35% **50%**
ACE 20% 35% **45%**
NoLocation Shift
belownormal
nearnormal
above normal
Has the 2009/10 El Nino had health impacts?
Spatial distribution of plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity
From Malaria Atlas Project (MAP)
Distribution of Dengue Fever and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever
equator
OutgoingLongwaveRadiationAnomalies 5N – 5S
ClimatePredictionCenterNCEP
*************
maximum influenceon climate
JFM 2010precip anom
JFM precipcomposEl Nino
wetdry
wetdry
JFM 2010 precipobserved tercilecategory
JFM 2010 precip probabforecast frommid-Dec
wet obsnormal obs dry obs
dry season(no forecast)
can we expecthigher risk of malaria and/or dengue?
JFM 2010 precipobserved tercilecategory
wetnormaldry
Brunei: 77 cases in JFM: high rainfall, poor rubbish managementThailand (Phuket): 123 cases in 2010: above-average temperatureNorth Queensland (Tully): 4 cases, March: recent rains and high temperature, and migration from dengue-ridden Cairns to northVenezuela (central): 26,724 cases in 2010: abandonment of fumi- gation and env’tal cleanup by Ministry of Health; water storage
Notable dengue outbreaks during first 4 months of 2010
This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive:
……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr
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