confronting urgent climate challenges · cfmip damip dcpp fafmip geomip gmmip highresmip ismip6...

WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04

Confronting urgent climate

challenges

Week CenturyDecadeSeason

USA NAS April 2015

Week CenturyDecadeSeason

USA NAS April 2015

Observations

Models

CMIP

WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04

Coupled Model Intercomparison

Project(CMIP6)

WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04

Proposals from CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs & Model Groups’ Commitments to Participate in each MIP

Long Name of MIP (Short Name of MIP) 1 Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) 2 Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) 3 Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) 4 Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) 5 Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) 6 Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) 7 Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) 8 Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project (GMMIP) 9 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

10 Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) 11 Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture MIP (LS3MIP) 12 Land-Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) 13 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) 14 Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) 15 Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) 16 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) 17 Solar Model Intercomparison Project (SolarMIP) 18 Volcanic Forcings Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) 19 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) 20 Dynamics and Variability of the Stratosphere-Troposphere System (DynVar) 21 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) 22 Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation Advisory Board for CMIP6 (VIA AB)

13

19

19

14

17

10

10

20

15

11

13

13

21

14

11

23

7

11

13

13

17

4

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

AerChemMIP

C4MIP

CFMIP

DAMIP

DCPP

FAFMIP

GeoMIP

GMMIP

HighResMIP

ISMIP6

LS3MIP

LUMIP

OMIP

PMIP

RFMIP

ScenarioMIP

SolarMIP

VolMIP

CORDEX

DynVar

SIMIP

VIAAB

WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04

2100  fo

rcing  level  (W/m

2 )

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

SSP1Environmentally  

FriendlySSP2

<-­‐Intermediate-­‐>

SSP3Emissions  

Cooperation

Shared  Socioeconomic  PathwaysSSP4Emissions  

Cooperation

SSP5Emissions  

Cooperation

~7

~3.7

CMIP5simulations

Future  Scenarios  in  CMIP6

ScenarioMIP  Tier  1 ScenarioMIP  Tier  2

WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04

Week CenturyDecadeSeason

Climate Grand Challenges

WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04

Roemmich et al. 2015doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2513

Oce

an D

epth

, m

Global, Temperature anomaly

WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04

Roemmich et al. 2015doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2513

Oce

an D

epth

, m

8 yrs

WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04

Schuur et al. 2015doi:10.1038/nature14338

WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04

Schuur et al. 2015doi:10.1038/nature14338

WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04

Slangen et al. 2014doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9

CMIP5 (RCP 4.5): ocean heat, dynamics, atmospheric pressureObservations: regional land ice, land subsidence, GIA, gravity

WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04

Greve et al. 2015doi:10.1038/NGEO2247

Combinations of E, Ep, & P data sets, 1984-2005

WCRP SBSTA RD 2015.06.04

Climate challenges the human spirit