demand for higher education programs june gray reports - dem… · -city and program 2. gray’s...

Data • Insights • Strategy

www.GrayAssociates.com

Data • Insights • Strategy

www.GrayAssociates.com

Demand For Higher Education Programs

Results through June 2018

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CAROL ASLANIANPresident and Founder

ABOUTASLANIAN MARKET RESEARCH

Carol Aslanian “wrote the book” (Americans in Transition) on why people 25+ go back to college and is a leading expert on the demands, preferences, and motivations of adult/post-traditional/online students.

• 250+ Market Analyses for colleges and universities• 6 Major Reports on trends in adult/post-traditional learning• 7 National Studies on the demands and preferences of online learners• 90 Professional Development Seminars for enrollment leaders

AMR STAFFHAVE PRODUCED:

Confidential 3

Who Is Gray?

Program and MarketEvaluation Data

Employment

Placement Rates

Student Demand

Demographics

Wages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System

§ Program profiles

§ Program location

§ Market selection

§ Location selection

§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity

§ Price positioning

§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy

§ Strategy implementation

§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Employer Requirements

4Confidential

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program

2. Gray’s Program Scorecard3. Aslanian Market Research: Post-Traditional Graduate

Students4. Summary

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§ We started tracking inquiries in 2012 and Google search volumes in September 2016.§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Gray has tracked demand for several years.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016 2017 2018

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs. - In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.

§ Year-to-date searches have fallen 4%.

Google Search Trends: Programs

Program searches on Google are down 4% this year (January through June).

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Google Searches200 Largest Programs*

2016 2017 2018 2019

*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions

-4%

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§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs. - In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.

§ Searches fell 3% for June.

Google Search Trends: Programs

Program searches on Google are down 4% this year (January through June).

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Google Searches200 Largest Programs*

2016 2017 2018 2019

*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions

-3%

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§ Gray tracks search volume for a sample of 75 higher-education brands.§ June searches decreased by 5%, in line with this year’s average.

Google Search Trends (Brands)

Brand searches continue to fall 5% year-over-year.

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Google Searches75 Brands 2016 2017 2018

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§ April volume rose 1% year-over-year.§ May volume rose 4% year-over-year.§ June volume rose 1% year-over-year.

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Inquiries continue to increase slightly year-over-year in 2018.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

+ 1%

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§ Q3 2017 beat the baseline by 54%.§ Since then, conversion rates have fallen, but are still beating the baseline by 29%.§ However, conversion rates in Q1 2018 are 7% below last year.

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017 and Q1 2018, conversion1 rates were well above our 2014 baseline.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

Q1 2018

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014) +54%

+29%

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the associated inquiry was received (i.e., a January inquiry that converts in March is counted as a January conversion). Typically, the conversion rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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§ As Q2 matures, conversions are likely to beat last year.

Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For March 2018 inquiries, total conversions fell 13% year-over-year.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.

Immature Months1

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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§ In June, prices fell from May’s high of $49.47 to $48.85.§ But they are up 6.7% year-over-year.

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

For 15 out of the past 16 months, the average price paid per inquiry has risen year-over-year.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 $45.1 $45.9 $44.7 $44.8 $42.4 $44.9 $44.3 $44.5 $45.1 $44.7 $44.8 $45.42017 $45.3 $45.2 $45.5 $45.3 $45.5 $45.7 $45.2 $44.5 $45.0 $46.0 $45.9 $46.72018 $47.1 46.56 46.33 47.35 49.47 48.85 - - - - - -

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

+6.7% YoY

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs

In June, year-over-year spending dropped for 6 of the 10 programs with the largest budgets.

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

33%

14%

9%

6%

-7%

-9%

-23%

-25%

-28%

-35%

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Psychology, General

Criminal Justice/Police Science

Health Care Administration

Business Administration and Management

HVAC

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller

Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

Accounting Technology and Bookkeeping

June 2018 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets

% Change Year Over Year

14Confidential

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program

2. Gray’s Program Scorecard3. Aslanian Market Research, a Division of EducationDynamics4. Summary

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§ Inquiries for online programs have risen five of six months this year.

Inquiries for Online Programs

Inquiries for online programs grew 8% year-over-year in June.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

+8%

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Heat Map of Online Year-over-Year Inquiries – by State

Year-over-year, June inquiries grew most quickly in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, New Mexico, Arkansas, and Maryland.

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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Heat Map of Online 2018 Inquiries per Capita – by County

Inquiries per capita tend to be highest in rural areas. T he top five counties in 2018 per capita inquiries are located in Virginia (2), Georgia (2), and New Mexico (1).

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In June, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 18% year-over-year.

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

-18% YoY

19Confidential

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program

2. Gray’s Program Scorecard3. Aslanian Market Research, a Division of EducationDynamics4. Summary

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§ Los Angeles was up the most this month (17%).

Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

In June 2018, three of The Big 5 Cities grew inquiries year-over-year.

-13% -13%

-7% -8%

-26%

8% 5%

-6% -1%

-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

10% 15%

Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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§ Inquiries for three of The Big 5 fell–CJ fell 70%.§ Healthcare Administration and Medical Assisting grew–M.A. was up 64%.

The Big 5 Programs: May Growth Year-over-Year

The Big 5 Programs faired poorly in June.

13%

-70%

-16%

64%

-1%

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0%

20% 40% 60% 80%

Healthcare Administration

Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Business Administration

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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The Fast 5 Programs:The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew 50% or more.

128% 110% 108%

57% 53%

0%

50%

100%

150%

Health Professions and Related

Programs

Electrical Engineering

Cybersecurity Hospitality Administration

Liberal Arts and Sciences

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in June Inquiries

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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Fastest-growing Programs

Searches for Aesthetician programs continued their rapid growth.

16%

16%

17%

18%

25%

25%

28%

36%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Health/Health Care Administration/Management

Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Refrigeration Maintenance …

Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering …

Surgical Technology/Technologist

Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operator and Instructor

Medical Radiologic Technology/Science - Radiation …

Nail Technician/Specialist and Manicurist

Aesthetician/Esthetician and Skin Care Specialist

Fastest-growing ProgramsJune Google Searches

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§ Hospitality-related programs also faired poorly.

Shrinking Programs

Search volumes for several teaching programs fell over 20%.

-68%

-46%

-44%

-40%

-35%

-28%

-27%

-24%

-80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

Hotel/Motel Administration/Management

Education, General

Hospitality Administration/Management, General

Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General

Criminal Justice/Safety Studies

Elementary Education and Teaching

Chemistry, General

Teacher Education, Multiple Levels

Fastest-declining ProgramsJune Google Searches

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§ Three of the top 10 are for-profits.

Fastest-growing Brands

The fastest-growing brands include very different schools.

7%

8%

10%

10%

13%

16%

16%

20%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

University of Kansas

University of Oklahoma-Norman Campus

University of Wyoming

College for America, SNHU

Florida Career College

Western Governors University

West Coast University

Universal Technical Institute

Fastest-growing BrandsGoogle Searches

26Confidential

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program

2. Gray’s Program Scorecard3. Aslanian Market Research, a Division of EducationDynamics4. Summary

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Healthcare Administration: Program Scorecard

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Healthcare Administration: Program Scorecard

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Healthcare Administration: Program Scorecard

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Healthcare Administration: Program Scorecard

31Confidential

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program

2. Gray’s Program Scorecard3. Aslanian Market Research, a Division of EducationDynamics4. Summary

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Two Reports

WHO ARE POST-TRADITIONAL STUDENTS?

UndergraduateReport,2017 GraduateReport,2018

Avai lab le Here : educat iondynamics .com/e-books

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WHO AREPost-Traditional Graduate Students?• Not enrolled in a daytime, full-time

or residential degree program

• Not necessarily “adult learners”

• More than 70% of the graduate student population

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National Study Methodology

WHO ARE POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS?

• 1,500studentsnationwide

• Anyage…butifunder25:notfull-time,day,residential(thisisourpost-traditionalscreeningcriteria)

• Enrolledingraduatestudyinpastthreeyears,currentlyenrolled,orplantoenrollinnext12months

• Studyofdemand– notneed.Scott

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Demographics

WHO ARE POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS?

Age22oryounger 2%23-24 3%25-29 26%30-34 23%35-39 16%40-44 9%45-49 7%50-55 7%Over55 6%

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66% 14% 11%

6% 1% 1%

CaucasianAfrican-American

HispanicAsianorPacific…

NativeAmericanOtherbackground

EmploymentStatus

Employedfulltime 71%

Employedparttime 12%

Not employed 13%

Retired 3%

WHO ARE POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS?Demographics

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Tren d s – How Far I s Th e ir On l in e I n s t i tu t ion ?

DistancefromInstitutionOnline

GraduateStudentsLessthan50milesaway 53%50to100milesaway 19%101-250milesaway 5%Morethan100milesaway 7%Morethan250milesaway 10%Notsure 7%

Key Takeaway : O n l ine s tuden t s p re f e r t o s t udy a t an i n s t i t u t i on t ha t i s l oca l and known to t hem .

RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS

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Trends – Preferred Course Format

Fullyclassroomcourses29%

Partiallyonline/hybrid

courses43%

Fullyonlinecourses27%

Key Takeaway :M a jo r i t y o f

pos t -t r ad i t i ona l

g r adua te s tuden t s p re f e r

s om e l eve l o f on l ine s tudy .

RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS

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Full vs Part TimePOST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS

Full-time66%

Part-time34%

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Trends in Recent/Current Program FormatPOST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS

25%

23%

19%

19%

14%

Allonlinecourses,novisitstocampus

Allonlinecourses,withoneormorefull-dayvisitstocampus(lowresidenceprograms)

Amixofclassroom,hybrid,andonlinecourses

Allhybridcourses(requiringregularclassroomandonlineinstruction)

Allclassroomcourses

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Trends – Preferred Course Length

8% 8%

6% 22%

8% 16%

1% 16%

15%

5orfewer

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13ormoreweeks

Median– 8-9Weeks

RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS

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Trends – Importance of Support Services

40% 30% 29% 28% 27%

24% 23%

21% 19%

17% 12% 11%

Libraryresources24/7techsupport

ResearchassistanceFacultyacademicadvising

Careerplanning/placement…Peerstudygroups

BookstoreTutoring

StudentnetworkingeventsCareerfairs/eventsorganized…

NewstudentorientationHealth/wellnesscounseling…

K e y Ta k e a w a y :E n ro l l m e n t ( a n d re t e n t i o n ) d e p e n d o n s t u d e n t s ’ a b i l i t y t o c o m p l e t e t h e i r s t u d i e s .

RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS

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Trends – How do they pay?

CoursePaymentMethods

UsedPaymentMethod Primary

SecondaryMethods

Personal/familyfunds 47% 66% 34%Studentloans 38% 56% 44%Privateloans(fromabank) 22% 51% 49%Governmentgrants 27% 59% 41%Privatethird-partyscholarships 11% 40% 60%Employertuitionsupportbenefits 24% 61% 39%Other 1% 86% 14%K e y Ta k e a w a y : U n l i k e p a s t d e c a d e s , p o s t - t r a d i t i o n a l g r a d u a t e s t u d e n t s a re f a r m o re l i k e l y t o re l y o n l o a n s , g r a n t s a n d o t h e r s o u rc e s t o d a y.

RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS

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Tren d s – Mos t I m p or t an t Fac t ors in En ro l lm en t

Post-TraditionalGraduateStudents

Costoftuitionandfees 52%Reputationofthecollegeorprogram 36%Professionalaccreditationofmyprogram 34%Availabilityofonlineprograms 32%Lengthoftimetocompletemystudies 30%Locationwheremycoursesareoffered/available 29%Availabilityofflexibleformats(online,hybrid,low-residence…) 26%Availabilityofacceleratedcourses 20%Availabilityofgraduateassistantships 16%Recommendationsoffriends,family,associates 13%Recommendedbymyemployer 11%

RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS

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Trends – Market ing Channels

TopMarketingChannelsPost-Traditional

GraduateStudentsCommercials(Television) 36%Email 29%Searchengines(paidandorganic) 27%CollegeFairs 22%DisplayAdvertisements 22%SocialMediaAdvertising 20%

Key Takeaway : En s u re t h a t yo u r m a r ke t i n g m ix h a s bo th t r ad i t i ona l and new m ed ia . You can no l onger avo id d ig i t a l m ar ke t i ng !

RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS

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Tren d s – Mob i l e Pres en ce Mat t er s f or S earch !

Notatall19%

Some 48%

Almostall23%

All 11%

MobileHeavy

RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS

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Trends – How Many Schools?

RECRUITING POST-TRADTIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS

NumberofInstitutions

Post-TraditionalGraduateStudents

Considered/Inquired Applied

1 21% 40%

2 35% 41%

3ormore 44% 19%

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Tr e n d s – E n r o l l m e n t i n 1 s t I n s t i t u t i o n t o O f f e r A c c e p t a n c e

RECRUITING POST-TRADITIONAL GRADUATE STUDENTS

Yes84%

No 16%

K e y Ta k e a w a y :S u c c e s s r e l i e s o n y o u r a b i l i t y t o o p t i m i z e y o u r c o n t a c t / e n r o l l m en t s t r a t e g y . Yo u a r e c o m p e t i n g f o r s t u d e n t s a s y o u n e v e r h a v e b e f o r e .

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For addit ional information, support resources or questions , p lease contact Carol Aslanian at

caslanian@educationdynamics.com or 201-377-3321

You can also vis i t our websi te : educationdynamics.com

Referenced Reports : educationdynamics.com/e-books

CONTACT US FOR A FREE STRATEGY DISCUSSION

HOW CAN WE HELP?

50Confidential

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program

2. Gray’s Program Scorecard3. Aslanian Market Research, a Division of EducationDynamics4. Summary

Confidential 51

§ The decline in total inquiries seems to be slowing.

- Google search volumes are off just 3%

- Gray inquiries are flat

- This reflects declining interest in on-ground and rising demand for online.

§ Conversion rates and conversions are now declining year-over-year.

§ Prices for inquiries are rising.

§ Non-traditional graduate students are a unique segment.

- Employed, married and raising kids

- Prefer local online with some on-campus work.

§ In this environment, you will need:

- Great data to inform decisions on programs and markets to invest in.

- The ability to take share, so you can sustain enrollment in a declining market.

Key Demand Trends and Observations

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Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836

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