demographic change and challenges for social policy in the uk and europe
Post on 22-Dec-2015
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Demographic Change and Demographic Change and Challenges for Social Challenges for Social
PolicyPolicyin the UK and Europein the UK and Europe
What is Demographic Analysis?DEMOGRAPHY IS ANALYSIS OF SIZE AND
STRUCTURES OF POPULATION OVER TIME CENTRAL TO POLICY PLANNING DIFFERENT GROUPS IN THE POPULATION
-DIFFERENT NEEDS -DIFFERENT PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOUR -DIFFERENT PATTERNS OF CONSUMPTION
MAJOR STRATEGIC CONCERNS-
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WORKING/DEPENDENT POPULATIONS/SIZE OF LABOUR FORCE
UNDULATIONS IN BIRTH RATES PRODUCE PEAKS AND TROUGHS IN DEMANDS FOR PARTICULAR SERVICES ETC. AS COHORTS PROGRESS ACROSS THE AGE STRUCTURE
Thinking demographically
• Fertility rates/mortality rates
• Replacement rate (2.1)
• Dependency ratios
• Natural population increase migration/inmigration
• Household formation
• Household dissolution
Strategic/Political Importance
• Geo-politics of demographic ‘weight’-ie.the relative size of populations
• Pro-natalist policies
• Size of the labour force
• Structure of demand/consumption/internal markets
“Some countries, like Spain, Italy and Japan, have fallen so far below replacement fertility that their total population in each successive generation will be more than 30 per cent smaller than in the previous one. Absent large-immigration from less-developed countries, Japan and much of Europe will be losing population at a rate of well over 1 per cent per year, year after year, until they dwindle to a fraction of their current sizes towards the end of the 21st century.” (Frances Fukayama, 1999,The Great Disruption)
Other key trends/issues
• Rising divorce rates-nearly one divorce for every two marriages in the EU25
• Increasing cohabitation-one third of all babies born outside marriage in the EU25
• Rising lone parenthood• Later age at marriage
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