„die kalte sonne“ the cold sun the medieval warm period within the context of millennial scale...

„Die kalte Sonne“

The cold Sun

The Medieval Warm Period within the Context of Millennial Scale Climate Cycles

Dr Sebastian Lüning

„The Cold Sun – Why climate catastrophe is called off“

New book reminds IPCC scientists of the important role of natural climate drivers

> Publication date: February 2012

> Authors:– Prof Fritz Vahrenholt: CEO Renewable Energy Company

– Dr Sebastian Lüning: Geologist

> English edition: to be published in fall 2012

Fritz Vahrenholt Sebastian Lüning

Reaction of the Climate Establishment

Prof Mojib Latif (University of Kiel):“When reading the book as a scientist, my hair stands on end. This is a pseudo-scientific treatise.”

Prof Hartmut Graßl (formerly Director of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in Geneva):“Well, you know, I don‘t really want to comment on this rubbish.“

Prof Jochem Marotzke (Director of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg):“The book authors have read a lot but understood very little.“

But there were also positive reactions

Hamburger Abendblatt:“Cora Stephan once criticised the intellectual doldrums in Germany. What an irony that a wind energy manager of all people has to experience this lull”

Economy Program ECO of Swiss Television:Book Tip of the Week (23 April 2012)

PM Magazin:“Science is vulnerable to group think. Once a consensus has formed it becomes hard to express doubts. This is particularly true in the politically sensitive climate sciences. The subject is too important for that it could be allowed to suppress opinions deviating from the alleged consens. And this is why the climate discussion needs people like Vahrenholt.“

Daily Climate News on our Blog: www.kaltesonne.de

The Beginning

> Fred Singer/Dennis Avery:„Unstoppable Global warming - every 1,500 years“

> Published in 2006

> New York Times Bestseller

Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles during the last Ice Age:

1,470 years cycle

> Cycles with 1,470 years duration

> Grouped into bundles of cycles with common trends

> Temperatue changes of up to 10°C within a few decades

> DO-cycles occurred in Pleistocene (last ice age).

> What is their significance in postglacial times, the last 10,000 years?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event

Primary solar activity cycle periods

> There is no 1,500 year cycle periode in the primary solar activity record

> Next closest cycles are the

– Eddy cycle (1000 years)

and the

– Hallstatt cycle (2300 years)

> Stefan Rahmstorf suggests Gleissberg/Suess-de-Vries cycle combination for Pleistocene DO-cycles.

Spectral Analysis of sunspot data(data: Solanki et al. 2004, analysis from Kern et al. 2012)

Start of a new field of research in 2001:

Solar-forced millennial-Scale Climate Cycles in the North Atlantic

Ice Rafted Debris as Climate Proxy http://www2.imperial.ac.uk/blog/wilkeslandiodpexpedition/2010/01/19/19-january-2010-icebergs/

http://www.ccstib.fr/Climats-du-passe-le-climat-de-l,209.html

Bond et al. 2001

studied cores

Synchronicity between Solar Activity and Temperature in North Atlantic

Bond et al. 2001

Solar activity (blue curve): C14 as proxy for cosmic rays which are modulated by solar magnetic fieldTemperature (black curve): HSG=Hematite Stained Grains=ice berg debris

thousand years before present

cold

warm

Gerard Bond (1940-2005)

http://www.columbia.edu/cu/record/23/10/13.html

Bond‘s Follow-up Study 2003: The Same Milennial-Scale Cycles in a Lake in Alaska

IPCC AR4 lead author Stefan Rahmstorf on Bond et al. 2001:

„Bond cycles could not be reproduced in later studies“

> Rahmstorf about Bond et al 2001:

– Bond cycles could not be reproduced by other scientists.

– In later years Bond did not believe his results himself.

– Bond cycles are a dead end street in climate science.

http://www.scilogs.de/wblogs/blog/klimalounge/klimadaten/2010-07-14/heiss-globale-rekord-temperatur

Did Bond really give up on his Bond cycles?No! He even published about them just before passing away

Müller et al. 2005

Kemp et al. (January 2012 in Quaternary Research):

Bond Cycles in South East Australia

> Precipitation (upper curve) and temperatures (lower curve) in synchronicity with Bond‘s North Atlantic cycles

> North Atlantic Cold periods marked by grey bars

Kemp et al. 2012

Cléroux et al. (February 2012 in Paleoceanography):

Bond Cycles off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

> Temperature off Cape Hatteras (blue curve) and solar activity (red curve) in synchronicity with Bond‘s North Atlantic cycles

Cléroux et al. 2012

Steinhilber et al. (April 2012 in PNAS):

Bond Cycles in Chinese Cave

> Delta 18O reflects precipitation and strength of Asiatic monsoon

> High degree of synchronity with solar activity changes

Steinhilber et al. 2012

Neff et al. 2001 in Nature:

Synchronicity between solar activity and temperature development in dripstones of Oman for the period 7500-4500 BC

Neff et al. 2001

Carter 2008

Greenland Temperature reconstruction for the past 5,000 years based on deuterium in ice cores

Solar induced millennial-scale cycles everywhere

North Atlantic

Greenland

Alaska

China (1)

Oman

West Virginia

India

China (2)

> Radiative forcing according to IPCC AR4:

– CO2: 1.66 W/m2

– Sun: 0,12 W/m2

> Sun has hardly any climatic significance in the IPCC models

A miracle: How did the sun do the trick?

Medieval Warm Periodand

Modern Warm Periodas part of the Bond cycle

Solar 1000-Year-Cycle and its climatic response

What would be the natural continuation?1850

100001000ADBC. TODAY

Sun

2CO

Medieval Warm Period

RomanWarm Period

MinoanWarm Period

ModernWarm Period

LittleIce Age

Cold Period (Migration

Period)

Cold PeriodCold Period

Temperature

Attack against the Sun: Attempt #1

The Hockey Stick Illusion

Michael Mann Steve McIntyre

Solar 1000-Year-Cycle and its climatic response

The Hockey Stick Illusion1850

100001000ADBC. TODAY

Sun

2CO

RomanWarm Period

MinoanWarm Period

LittleIce Age

Cold Period (Migration

Period)

Cold PeriodCold Period

Temperature

ModernWarm Period

Medieval Warm Period

Solar 1000-Year-Cycle and its climatic response

The Hockey Stick Illusion1850

100001000ADBC. TODAY

Sun

2CO

RomanWarm Period

MinoanWarm Period

LittleIce Age

Cold Period (Migration

Period)

Cold PeriodCold Period

Temperature

ModernWarm Period

Medieval Warm Period

Attack against the Sun: Attempt #2

Little Ice Age allegedly caused by volcanoes

Attack against the Sun: Attempt #2

Little Ice Age allegedly caused by volcanoes1850

100001000ADBC. TODAY

Sun

2CO

RomanWarm Period

MinoanWarm Period

LittleIce Age

Cold Period (Migration

Period)

Cold PeriodCold Period

Temperature

ModernWarm Period

Medieval Warm Period

VolcanoVolcano?Volcano?Volcano?

The 1000-year cycle

Increase of Temperature, CO2 and Solar Activity

Temperature

Sun

CO2

> Besides temperature and CO2 also solar activity has increased over the past 150 years.

> The solar magnetic field has more than doubled.

1717

Solanki et al. 2004 (nature):

Solar activity of the past decades was one of the highest over the past 10.000 years

after Mauas et al. 2010

Synchronicity between solar activity and streamflow of Parana River over past 100 years

Solar Schwabe 11 year cycle

Years

Gray et al. 2010

Different response of different solar parameters

Sunspots

Total SolarIrradiance

UV

Radio Waves

Cosmic Rays

Magnetic Field

Open Solar Flux

0,1%

Variability

10%

several %up to 70%

Synchronicity between solar activity and water level of Lake Victoria (East Africa)

Stager et al. 2007

Temperature response to 11 year solar cycle

Sunspots

Temperature(deducted:: El Nino & volcanoes)

Scafetta 2009

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=37575

What‘s next for Bond cycle?

Weak Solar Cycle 24

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

24th24th23rd23rd

234

5 6

24? 25?

Archibald 2010

Gleissberg and Suess/de Vries Cycles

Years

210 Year Suess/de Vries Cycle

Abdussamatov 2010

last Suess/de Vries Minimum

Next Suess/de Vries Minimum

Prognosis of solar activity based on main solar cycles

Clilverd et al. 2006

The traditionale IPCC view, Feulner & Rahmstorf (2010):Upcoming solar minimum with little climate effect

The traditional IPCC view, Jones et al. (2012):Upcoming solar minimum with little climate effect

Our Schematic Temperature Prognosis(„Die kalte Sonne“)

Thank You