dutch bargain or dutch treat?
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Dutch bargain
or
Dutch treat?
Reference projections for Energy and Emissions in the Netherlands
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 2
Why projections ?
Assessing whether the Netherlands will meet the national emission ceilings
If not, what further measures/policies are needed?
Input for modeling future health and ecosystem impacts.
Latter is used for spatial planning procedures.
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 3
How projections ?
projection ≠ prediction; projections are scenario’s
Method:
• Eproj = Aproj * ef proj
• Eproj = possible future Emission
• Aproj = possible future Activity
• ef proj = possible future Emission Factor
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 4
Scenario’s envisaged
Pri
vate
resp
on
sib
ility
International co-operation
National sovereignty
Strong EuropeSE
Pu
blic
resp
on
sib
ility
TransatlanticMarket
TM
Global EconomyGE
RegionalCommunities
RC
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 5
History of projections
• Lessons from the past
• Late eighties “Concerns for tomorrow”
• 1989-2006: 6 Environmental outlooks
• Quality of projections? What were the
problems?
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 6
Historical trend
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 7
Policy and measures
starting point is ‘concrete’ policy, meaning
• sufficiently operational, • accompanied by instruments,• funded,• laid down in an official document and• for which powers have been granted.
• Following this CLE, an Additional Measures scenario is constructed
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 8
Overview of policy: transport
• Emission standards for (road) transport
• BPM (car and motorcycle); purchase tax differentiation by relative energy efficiency
• sulphur level standards for fuels
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 9
Overview of policy: agriculture
• Compulsory use of manure storage covers• Compulsory low-emission application of manure to
land• Low-emission livestock housing• Use standards (manure policy)• BEES1 to reduce NOx emissions in glasshouse
horticulture
• 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 10
Overview of policy: other
• NOx ETS
• 1BEES • Dutch Emissions Guidelines (NeR) • IPPC-BAT• Oil to gas fuel switch• NMVOC Reduction Plan• Solvents Decree and• Voluntary Agreements on Working Conditions
• 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 11
Measures in the pipeline
• SO2 agreements with refineries and energy producers
• IPPC-BAT• Oil to gas fuel switch• NMVOC Reduction Plan• Solvents Decree and• Voluntary Agreements on Working Conditions
• 1Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 12
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 13
Latest projections
• Reference Projections Energy and Emissions 2005-2020
• Two scenarios picked for reference projections: • Global Economy and Strong Europe.
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 14
Input for projections
• growth factors for different sectors from CPB (economical), LEI (agricultural), FOI (industry), ECN (energy) and NEAA (population, socio-economic, etc.)
• technological advancements from various international and national institutes (e.g. BREF documents)
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 15
2050 Workshop
• request for ‘aspirational’ scenario for 2050. • TFIAM seeking co-operation with other groups. • national experts available who could share
experiences on longer term scenario building ‘backcasting’ the necessary steps.
• ‘2050-workshop’ end 2008 with goal to publish a paper in spring 2009.
• link with climate modeling strategies
please contact rob.maas@mnp.nl
Benno Jimmink, Dutch Projections 16
Thank you !
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