earthquake early warning where we are and where we are going
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Earthquake Early WarningWhere we are and where we are going
Doug GivenUSGS Earthquake EarlyWarning Coordinator
CISN Steering CommitteeMarch 25, 2013
Principal Collaborators• Caltech Hauksson, E., Böse, M., Heaton, T.• UC Berkeley Allen, R., Hellweg, P.• Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Clinton, J., Cua, G.• U. of Washington Vidale, J., Bodin, P.• SCEC
Jordan, T., Maechling, P.• Moore Foundation
Atherton, C. • USGS
Given, D., Cochran, E., Oppenheimer, D.
• ShakeMap• CISN Display• ShakeCast• Pager• ENS• And more…
CISN Post-seismic Earthquake Products
Anza M4.7 .avi
Status today:Status today: Demonstration system
Next three years:Next three years:Production Prototype
Thanks to partnerships…
Current CISN EEW Status
Receiving alerts today:Receiving alerts today:• >50 scientists
• CalEMA
• Google.org
• BART
• LA Metro
• Metrolink
• San Francisco DEM
• Amgen
• So Cal Edison
• UC Berkeley OEP
• L.A. City
• L.A. County
• Riverside Co.
• San Bernardino Co.
• more…
Potential Uses of Early Warning?– Human Response
• Drop, cover, and hold on • Evacuate hazardous areas• Brace for shaking
(surgeons, dentists, etc.)
– Automated Response• Slow or stop trains, traffic• Close valves, gates• Stop elevators• Open firehouse doors• Slow or stop machinery• ?
Main Components of EEW System• Dense sensors (seismic & GPS)
• Reliable field telemetry
• Fast processing to determine:
• Location, magnitude
• Fault extent & slip
• Fast mass notification
• End user interaction & education
Sensors Processing UsersField telemetry Notifications
West Coast
Centers
Pacific Northwest
Northern California
Southern California
• EEW is a natural extension of ANSS & CISN core capabilities
• Leverage…
• Technical
• Management
• Community engagement
CISN will be transformed by EEW
• More stations, upgraded stations• More robust telemetry• Tighter integration with (inclusion of) GPS• Need for more rigorous testing and
monitoring for EEW than current products• More staff at Tier 1 centers• More interaction with users• More partnerships• Funding?
CISN Funding (2011)Not including EEW
Total ~$10.4M (USGS $8.9M, CalEMA $1.5M)
Does not include CSMIP
Investments in EEW
External grants R & D for EEW Phase I & II (2006-2012) $2,093,851 Phase III (2012-2015) 1st yr $ 450,000
ARRA California (2009-2011) $4,426,110 Network equipment upgrades
MultiHazards Project (2008-2012)$1,618,150
San Andreas sensors, digital upgrades,production computers, personnel
Caltech $1,996,888
UC Berkeley $2,040,889
Univ. of Washington $1,848,351
USGS $ 594,406
TOTAL $8,588,111 TOTAL $6,480,534
USGS Moore Foundation(2012-2015)
““The USGS has directly funded research and development The USGS has directly funded research and development toward earthquake ‘early warning’ since 2006 with toward earthquake ‘early warning’ since 2006 with the goal the goal of creating an operational warning capability in the highest-of creating an operational warning capability in the highest-risk regions of the United States.risk regions of the United States.” – Director, USGS” – Director, USGS
Technical Progress on EEW
• Installing/upgrading sensors
• Redesigning telemetry
• R & D continues
• Improving algorithms
• Fin-Der, GPS techniques
• IPAWS-WEA, phone app
• Beta user outreach, UD v2.4, social science, web sites
Sensors Processing UsersField telemetry Notifications
• Dense sensors
• Reliable telemetry
• Fast processing for:
• Location, magnitude
• Fault extent & slip
• Fast mass notification
• End user education
ShakeOut finite fault - .avi
Implementation Summary(with current modest funding levels)
• Upgrade network infrastructure as opportunities arise
• Continue algorithm development and implementation – Gordon & Betty Moore funding R&D– USGS EEW funding (Phase III) implementation
• Create production thread - “operationalize” current demonstration thread– Develop West Coast architecture for redundant, fail-safe
operation– Develop operational performance metrics and monitoring
• Continue user interaction, create new partnerships
• Complete implementation plan, cost benefit analysis, telemetry plan, etc.
ShakeShakeAlertAlert
Full West Coast Implementation
(estimate)California
Pacific Northwest
West Coast (CA+PNW)
One-Time Construction costs
$23,165,072 $15,146,920 $38,311,992
Annual Operation and Maintenance
$11,888,128 $4,607,909 $16,496,037
• Personnel to bring ANSS (CISN) network staffing up to robust levels
• Personnel at each center for EEW operation and user outreach• Personnel for EEW central implementation and testing• Support for continued algorithm & software development• 700 new or upgrades seismic stations & 300 GPS stations• Significant field telemetry upgrades
CaliforniaPacific
NorthwestWest Coast (CA+PNW)
One-Time Construction costs
$23M $15M $38M
Annual Operation and Maintenance
$12M $5M $17M
California SB 135 on EEW
Other Recent EEW Developments
• BART “live” since Aug. 2012
• Production system is being built
• UD v2.4 released, alpha phone app
• ShakeAlert being installed at UW
• Web sites created: shakealert.org & at partner sites
•1st draft of implementation plan with budget completed
• Los Angeles area UASI funding for new & upgraded station
• Partners developing strategy for congressional support
Summary
• USGS & CISN partners are committed to building and operating EEW for highest risk areas of CA
• ShakeAlert has been sending test EEW notifications since January 2012
• Work has begun on the “production” system• Significant progress is being made in all parts of
the system despite limited resources• Partners are coordinating to build support at
federal and state levelsShakeShakeAlertAlert
Thank You
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