eugene s. takle iowa state university gstakle@iastate.edu midwest weather working group...

Eugene S. TakleIowa State Universitygstakle@iastate.edu

Midwest Weather Working Group

Indianapolis, IN7 October 2009

Des Moines Airport Data

1983: 31

2009 so far: 1

1988: 26

Des Moines Airport Data

1983: 13 1988:

10

2009 so far: 0

Des Moines Airport Data

1983: 13 1988:

10

2009 so far: 0

Des Moines Airport Data

1983: 13 1988:

10

2009 so far: 0

6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years

Ames Data

Des Moines Airport Data

Des Moines Airport Data

State-Wide Average Data

State-Wide Average Data

Cedar Rapids Data

“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “

Cedar Rapids Data

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

December-January-February Temperature Change

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999

4.0

3.5

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

June-July-August Temperature Change

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999

2.5

3.0

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

December-January-February Precipitation Change

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999

0.0

0.1

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

June-July-August Precipitation Change

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999

-0.1

0.0

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Annual Cloud Cover

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999

Change in Annual Cloud Cover

-1.0

-1.5

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Diurnal Temperature Range

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999

0.0

0.3

-0.3

Change in Diurnal Temperature Range

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Evaporation

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999

0.2

0.1

Change in Evaporation

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Soil Moisture

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999

-5

0

Change in Soil Moisture

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

*Estimated from IPCC reports

*Estimated from IPCC reports

*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports

Waxman-Markey Bill Midwest activities relating to a

“national climate service” Question for Midwest Weather Working

Group

TITLE I—CLEAN ENERGY TITLE II—ENERGY EFFICIENCY TITLE III—REDUCING GLOBAL WARMING

POLLUTION TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN

ENERGY ECONOMY TITLE VII—GLOBAL WARMING POLLUTION

REDUCTION PROGRAM TITLE VIII—ADDITIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS

STANDARDS

TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY Subtitle E—Adapting to Climate Change

PART 1—DOMESTIC ADAPTATION: Subpart A—National Climate Change Adaptation Program

NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION SERVICES NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE

Midwest regional office of the National Weather Service has been exploring climate needs assessment for the Midwest (Doug Kluck)

Corn and Climate Workshop (Ames, 2008) Regional Climate Services Planning Meeting

for Agriculture, September 9-10, 2009 – Champaign/Urbana, IL Pilot project (Steve Hilberg, Dev Niyogi, Gene

Takle) on agriculture needs assessment Calendar for weather-driven agriculture decsions

Don’t ask “what climate information do you need and when do you need it?”

Rather, “what do you do and when do you do it?”

When (month) are decisions made? What is the lead time related to that decision?

2 hours (weather forecast) 2 days (weather forecast) 2 weeks (ensemble climate simulation) 2 months (ensemble climate simulation) 6 months (ensemble climate simulation) 2 years (ensemble climate simulation)

What decision tools that you currently use can be driven by hourly values of future meteorological or soil variables?

When (month) are these decisions made? What lead time is needed for these weather

conditions?