f. steinhausler and a. sobel cbrn terrorism mitigation: new aspects

F. STEINHAUSLER AND

A. SOBEL

CBRN Terrorism Mitigation:

New Aspects

Topics

1. Terrorism Threat2. CBRN Mitigation

1. Terrorism Threat

Threat Development

Suicide terrorismSequential truck bombsState sponsored terrorismSwarm attacksRemote-control of terrorist operationsDual-use-technology terrorism

Threat Outlook

Attacks on chemical facilities, other critical infrastructure

Decoding of individual genomes,metabolomesCommunicable diseasePhysical protection of nuclear weapons

Terrorist Profile & Society Response

MotivationPsychology of groups

and self-organizationRadicalizationSacred valuesMindset of terrorist

Bonding of victimsComplacency towards

security risksExtent of panicSelf-reliance of publicResilience of societyEducation of the next-

generation of scientists

2. CBRN Mitigation

Mitigation and Threat

CBRN weapons are likely to be deployed against:

High concentration of civilians present at high value or symbolic targets

Critical infrastructure (e.g., petrochemical facilities, power plants, pipelines, nuclear sites)

Security forces Psychology and political will

Mitigation and Probability

CBRN deployment has widely differing probability:

High p: Low-cost Easy to make R-device

Easy to access and dual-use

Medium p: Low-cost Crude B-, C-device

Low p: Material acquisition complex Improvised N-device;

weaponize (HEU-based device only)

Examples in Countries with Large Populations: Russia and India

Russia: Critique on politicizing Nuclear Terrorism and overestimating risk

Need for increased realism in CBRN mitigation

India: Predominant weighing different

threats to society and ideologiesRanking of CBRN within the scope of

conventional terrorismLow key efforts to mitigate CBRN in

large populations

Information Needs

CBRN Mitigation requires information on:

1. Equipment/processes necessary for the evaluationevaluation of a CBRN incident

2. Minimum capability for a nation, local government or individual to adequately identifyidentify and mitigatemitigate the consequences

3. Adequacy of international, national, regional or local communicationcommunication systems and standards available

Innovative Emergency Response Management: Cellular Phone System

Information relayed to individuals in emergency zone

PLUS: Data/science-driven management of overall emergency response

OPEN ISSUE: Technical implementation

CBRN Scenario Testing

Nuclear Attack:1.Large city under N-attack by boat 2. Important role of fallout mappingPLUS: Multidimensional information

infrastructure in placeOPEN ISSUE: Feasibility of scenario design

White Powder Attack: 1.Small city facing unknown threat2. Important role of decision forming process/immediate

stepsPLUS: Logical deduction by exclusion &

confirmation OPEN ISSUE: First Responder capability

Post-Attack 100 Days

1. Chemical: Thousand of victims Present emergency management feasible, if

adequate Public Health System in placeOPEN ISSUE: Questionable surge capacity and

sustainability

1. Biological: Tens of thousands of victims Adequacy of current emergency management

questionable in case of epidemic due to overburdening of Public Health System

OPEN ISSUE: Logistical problems with quarantine and baseline assessment of endemic disease

Post-Attack 100 Days (continued)

1. Radiological: Dozens of victims Current emergency management adequate Sound clean-up procedures and targeted communication-

strategy are keyOPEN ISSUE: Stigmatization of victims; property devaluation

1. Nuclear: Tens of thousands of victims, depending on yield,

population density, mode of deployment and metrological conditions

Successful emergency management dependent on timely arrival of adequate outside assistance

Long-term problems likelyOPEN ISSUE: Uncertain resilience of survivors until arrival of

external assistance; genetics and impact on health issues of future generations

Summary

A simplified one-science approach is recommended for CBRN operations

Many domains have yet to be explored to include the complex systems impacting CBRN operations

Psychological and political realms Adaptive and self-organizing networks Autonomous systems Understanding of human factors