future plans for space weather observations – u.s. noaa perspective terry onsager national oceanic...

Future Plans for Space Weather Observations – U.S. NOAA Perspective

Terry OnsagerNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSpace Weather Prediction Center

U.S. National Plan for Earth Observations

• US National Plan released in July, 2014

• Based on a policy framework for routine assessment of Earth observations

• Establishes priorities and actions to advance civil Earth observing capabilities

• Defines two observation categories:

- Sustained: support public services

- Experimental: multi purpose, time limited

• Will be revised every three years, new assessment effort beginning this month

Societal Benefit Areas

• Agriculture and Forestry

• Biodiversity

• Climate

• Disasters

• Ecosystems

• Energy and Mineral Resources

• Human Health

• Ocean and Coastal Resources

• Space Weather

• Transportation

• Water Resources

• Weather

Group on Earth Observations

Assessment of observations organized in 12 Societal Benefit Areas:

High Impact Observing Systems withSpace Weather Benefit

Tier 1 Highest Priority – Support a majority of societal themes:

• Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite System (GOES)

• MetOp – Polar Orbiting Operational Meteorology (EUMETSAT)

Tier 2

• Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)

• Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)

• International Magnetometers

• Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (POES)

• Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)

• Solar Dynamics Explorer (SDO)

• Solar Electro-Optical Network

• Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) Satellites

• USGS Geomagnetic Observatories

Agency Roles and Responsibilities: Space Weather Monitoring

• NOAA (with NASA, interagency and international partners):Conduct sustained observations for space weather monitoring and prediction

- Solar wind (including coronal mass ejections)- Solar flares- Energetic particles- Related measurements to forecast space weather events

• Provide measurements through:- GOES- DSCOVR (2015)- Beyond DSCOVR – study options, international/interagency

Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Solar Wind Mission

• Launch scheduled for January, 2015

• Space weather is the primary mission; climate is secondary

• Faraday cup: solar wind density, speed, temperature

• Electron electrostatic analyzer

• Magnetometer

• International network of real-time receiving antennas: Germany, Japan, South Korea, U.S.

• Real-time data processed and provided by NOAA

DSCOVR Follow-on L1 Mission

• Launch planned for 2020

• Measurement baseline:

- Thermal plasma (density, velocity, temperature)

- Magnetometer

- Low-energy ions

- Coronagraph

Observations off the Sun-Earth line (such as L5) are also needed for accurate characterization of Coronal Mass Ejections. It is not clear how these measurements will be obtained.

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)

• Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Sensors (EXIS): X-ray sensor, expanded dynamic range and flare location

• Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) – Full-disk extreme ultraviolet imager: Active region characterization, filament eruption, and flare detection

• Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS): Electrons, protons, heavy ions – Surface charging, internal charging, single-event upsets

• Magnetometer: Detection of geomagnetic storms and magnetopause crossing, energetic particle products, model validation

GOES-R

GOES-R is planned to launch in 2016

Requirements workshop for future geostationary measurements planned for April 13, 2015, before Space Weather Workshop

Launch Plan for GOES Satellites

Plan for POES and Partner Satellites

NOAA 15-19 and European MetOp A, B, and C will include NOAA Space Environment Monitor packages for particle measurements

COSMIC 2

• Joint Taiwan-U.S. planned 12-satellite constellation

• GNSS Radio-Occultation measurements – GPS, Galileo, and GLONASS

• 6 low-inclination and 6 high-inclination satellites

• First launch (6 low-inclination) planned for 2016

• NOAA is working with international partners to host/operated data-receiving ground stations

Solar /Solar Wind

Components of NOAA’s Numerical Space Weather Modeling Effort

Magnetosphere/Ionosphere

Atmosphere/Ionosphere

ACE and DSCOVR

WSA/EnlilOperational

Univ. of Michigan Geospace2015

Whole Atmosphere Model/ Ionosphere-Plasmasphere2017

Ionosphere

Plasmasphere

Thermosphere

Mesosphere

GFS0 – 60 km

WAM: Neutral Atmosphere0 – 600 km

Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE) Model

Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM = Extended GFS)Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE)Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA = WAM+IPE)

WAM

Stratosphere

Troposphere

Coupling of Atmospheric Dynamic to the Ionosphere System

Model development includes collaboration with UK researchers and the UK Met Office

R. Viereck, NOAA/SWPC

Summary

• The U.S. is implementing a national effort to establish priorities and actions to advance Earth-observing capabilities

• Two observation categories are defined:

- Sustained: support public services

- Experimental: multi purpose, time limited

• This is an ongoing effort with expected three-year updates

• NOAA is responsible for sustained observations, including GOES, DSCOVR, and DSCOVR follow-on

• Observations off the Earth-Sun line (e.g., L5) are still unplanned

• Sun-to-Earth operational modelling chain is under development that will required real-time data for model driving and data assimilation