how will thin film pv meet the terawatt scale generation?
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How thin film PV will meet the TW scale
generation?
Giulio Mazzotta, Christos Potamialis, Peter Yates
Liverpool, 14/11/2014
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 1 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
The energy problem
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 2 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
Source: International Energy Agency, 2013
120 000 TW·year
17.4 TW·year
World Primary EnergySupply, 2011Source: IEA, 2013
Average solar energy reachingEarth surface every year
Source: V. Smil, OCSE, 2006
Solar EnergyActual distribution of energy sources
**:eolic, geothermal, solar
Carbon Dioxide!
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 3 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
“Limiting warming to 2.5 °C or 3 °C involvessimilar challenges, but less quickly. Thesepathways would require substantial emissionsreductions over the next few decades, andnear zero emissions of CO2 and other longlived GHGs over by the end of the century.”
Source: OICA, 2013
CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 SYNTHESIS REPORT, IPCC
What surface do we need?
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 4 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
1 TW production:
Let’s assume:
20% efficiency (let’s be optimistic!) Intensity 1000 W/m2
=5 000 km2
MONEY!
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 5 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
Source: Fraunhofer Institute, 2013
Existing manufacturing
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 6 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
Existing installed capacity: 102 GW (data from: EPIA)
(data from: Fraunhofer Inst.)
Current thin-film technology: CdTe
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 7 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
• Absorber thickness ≈ 2μm
• Tellurium in Active Layer ≈ 50%
• Module efficiency ≈ 15%
Picture from Speirs et al, UKNERC
Current thin-film technology: CIGS
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 8 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
• Absorber thickness ≈ 2μm
• Indium in Active Layer ≈ 20%-30%
• Module efficiency of ≈ 12%
Picture from Speirs et al, UKNERC
Emerging thin-film technologies
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 9 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
• CZTS• Organometal Halide hybrid
perovskites• Organic
picture from: mibsolar.mater.unimib.itpicture from: Lee et al, Science 338, 643 (2012);picture from: spie.org
Earth abundance of materials
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 10 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
1 TW from CdTe:
93 000 tons of Te required1
80 tonnes/year2 increase
≈ 50 years for TW prod
(1): wikipedia.org
Graph from Speirs et al, UKERC
Tellurium production
Earth abundance of materials (2)
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 11 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
Graph from Speirs et al, UKERC
Indium production
CdTe production
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 12 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
Source: Fthenakis, MRS Bulletin, 37,2012
Market growth and projections
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 13 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
Source IEA, 2008
Technical solutions
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 14 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
Ground mounted Commercial
Residential roof mounted Building integration
Summary
G. Mazzotta, C. Potamialis, P. Yates 15 / How thin film PV will meet the TW scale generation?
• TW production by 2050 with solar power isachievable
• Is unlikely to be done with only one technology
• How much each technology will contributedepends on the success of current R&D of eachtechnology
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