lkce16 - getting to pull at enterprise scale by david j. anderson

Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Email:dja@leankanban.com Twi4er:@LKI_dja

TrueBusinessAgilityGe0ngto“pull”atenterprisescale

Presenter David J. Anderson

Lean Kanban Central

Europe Hamburg, Germany

November 2016

KanbanisUbiquitous!

Acceptance

11yearslaternooneisarguingthatKanbanisn’tappropriateinprofessionalservicesworkCompanieseverywhere,largeandsmall,aresimplydoingit!

So,it’sFmetodeclarevictory!We’vewontheargumentthatKanbanisagoodidea!

3Chinesecompanieshave“verylargescale”KanbanimplementaFons§  Huawei–Telecoms&electronics–5000+people§  PingAn–Insurance&banking–5000+people§  CMB–Banking–3000+people

MeanwhileinEurope…§  LargescalehasbeenseenatEricsson,Skania,Siemens,Rolls-Royce,BBVA,Odigeo(eDreams,Opodo)andothers

ReturnonInvestment

ImplementaFonsatHuawei,PingAn&CMBhaveeachcostaroundtheequivalentof3fullFmeemployeessalariesHuaweiareseeingimprovementsinproducFvityintherangeof10-50%withanaverageof25%acrossmorethan10productunitsImprovementsatHuaweiaretheequivalentof1250engineerstheydidn’tneedtohireReturnoninvestmentis300->400:1or>30,000%

Don’tmissit!

AdamWuat17h20“PingAnChinaInsurance&Services”CaseStudyKanbanacross5000peopleWhatdiditcost?Whathasitmeantforcompanyperformance,enterpriseagilityandrobustnesstodisrupFvefintech?§  ParFcularlyreleasefrequencyofmobilefinancialapplicaFons

NoHarm!

WhiletherehavebeenfailedKanbanimplementaFons,therearenostoriesofKanbandoingharmtoorganizaFonsUnlikesomeAgilemethodsandothermanagementfadssuchasholacracy,therearenostoriesofKanbancausing20%-40%staffturnoverorinflicFngbrutalandcruelchangeTherehasbeentribal,emoFonalpushbackinorganizaFonswhereAgileisareligion

Butwait,it’snotKanban!

TheproblemwiththisubiquitousandvirtuousadopFonofKanbanisthatitisn’treallyKanbanatall!

KanbanatMicrosoW2005

VirtualKanban“pull”system–Novisualboards!230%producFvityimprovement91%reducFoninaverageleadFmeOn-Fmeperformanceupfrom0%to98%Timeframe–15monthsCost–almostnothing,nocoachingfees,notraining,noconsultants,2permanentteammembersaddedmid-transformaFontakingproducFvityfrom150%improvementto230%improvement

KanbanatHewle4-Packard2006

VirtualKanban“pull”system–novisualboards!700%producFvityimprovement!LeadFmeonnewgeneraFonoflaserprinterfirmwaredroppedfrom21monthsto3.5months4.5dayworkingweekTimeframe–lessthan1yearCost–almostnothing–nocoaches,notraining,noconsultants

Proto-Kanbanrepresentsminorleaguevictory

WhatisbeingimplementedatlargescaleallovertheworldisvisualizaFonandperperson,orperteamWIPlimitsEnterprisesarestrugglingtoimplementend-to-end“pull”atanysignificantscale!

Proto-Kanban

TeamKanban

Backlog

Next Done

In-progress

3 ∞ ∞

J Avatar for each team member Still at a single team

level but maturing to focus on managing work and less on

managing workers

PerPersonWIPLimit

Pending

Dev/Build/ Test/Deploy

Dev Ready

Specify

∞ ∞ ∞

Unbounded Queue

Delayed WIP

At this level, we are focused on managing work and enabling people to self-

organize around it but we aren’t limiting WIP in the

system as a whole. Hence, service delivery will not be

predictable

Moving beyond a single team to a service delivery

workflow

AggregatedTeamKanban

Pool of

Deploy-ment

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done Ongoing Done

Team 1 Kanban

∞ ∞

Team 2 Kanban

Pool of

Deploy-ment

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done Ongoing Done

3 3 ∞ ∞

Also known as “infinite done

queues”

Pool of

Deploy-ment

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done Ongoing Done

Infinite limits on Done columns means that there really isn’t a kanban pull system present.

This style of proto-kanban controls multi-tasking but doesn’t limit

workflow WIP

∞ ∞

Benefitsofproto-Kanbanimplementa`ons

Benefits

Transparency Relief from overburdening

Reduced multitasking Improved quality

People engaged emotionally More collaboration Greater empathy

Benefitsofproto-Kanbanimplementa`ons

Benefits

10-50% greater productivity Up to 50% reduction

in lead times Average 25% headcount saving

Return on investment 300->400 : 1

Arewethereyet?

KanbanLitmusTest

1.  Havemanagerschangedtheirbehavior?2.  Hasthecustomerinterfacechanged?3.  Hasthecustomercontractchanged?4.  Hastheservicedeliverybusinessmodelchanged?

Ifyoucan’tansweryestoatleast2ofthesequesFonsitisunlikelyyou’veswitchedtoKanbanyet!YoumayhavetheintenttoadoptitthroughaseriesofevoluFonarystepsiniFallyadopFngproto-Kanban

HaveManagersChangedtheirBehavior?

Aremanagersmanagingpeople,assigningwork,focusedonuFlizaFonlevels,buildingbrinle,determinisFcplans,makingearlycustomercommitmentsandooenmakingpromiseswithoutregardtocapabilityorrespectforrisk&uncertainty?Orhavetheyswitchedtomanagingwork,focusingonflow,forecasFngprobabilisFcally,deferringcommitment,makingpromisesbasedonprobability,embracingriskanduncertainty,andfocusingonduedateperformanceagainstSLAs?

HastheCustomerInterfaceChanged?

AreyousFllanendingthesameoldplanningmeeFngsonthesameoldschedule?Or,haveyouadoptedkanbansystemreplenishmentmeeFngs?ArecustomerspresentatreplenishmentmeeFngs?DoescommitmenthappenatthereplenishmentmeeFngwhenanitemis“pulled”ontotheboard?HasthefrequencyofthemeeFngchanged?Isitmuchmorefrequentthanbefore?

HastheCustomerContractChanged?

AreyousFllmakingcommitmentsthesameway?Hasthepromiseyoumakeandthewayyoumakeitchanged?AreyousFllmakingdeterminisFcplans,promisingprecisescopeandschedule,andhedgingwithconFngencyby“overesFmaFng”size,complexity,orduraFonofwork?OrareyouworkingprobabilisFcally,studyinghistoricaldata,aggregaFngriskandusingservicelevelagreementsasanewstyleofcontractwiththecustomer?

HastheServiceDeliveryBusinessModelChanged?

Areyoucarryingalltherisk?Fixeddeliverydate,fixedscope,fixedcost?PrecisepromisesbasedondeterminisFcplanning?IsallworktreatedhomogenouslyfromariskperspecFve?Doyouprocessallrequeststhesameway?Or,haveyouintroducedclassesofservicebasedonriskprofilingandassessmentofcostofdelay?DoyouoffermulFpleclassesofservicebyallocaFngcapacityandhedgingrisk?IsclassofserviceFedtoriskandurgency?Doyouhaveexplicitpolicyassigningclassofservicetodifferentriskprofiles?

Triage

“pull”createsapressuretotriage:§  Whatshouldwedoimmediately?§  WhatcanwaitunFllater?

•  Andifso,when?(aschedulingproblem)

§  Whatshouldn’twedoatall?(discard)

Ifyouhaven’tdevelopedastrongtriagedisciplinethenyoualmostcertainlyhaven’tachievedend-to-end“pull”

Usingmovabletokensaskanbanismoreflexible

Dev Ready

Development Testing Test

UAT Release Ready

In-progress

Legend

Blocked - issue

Blocked - defect

Override on kanban limit introduces additional

“blocked – issue” kanban

People working on blocked item “A”

have been redirected to work on item “I”

Usingmovabletokensaskanbanismoreflexible

Dev Ready

Development Testing Test

UAT Release Ready

In-progress

Legend

Blocked - issue

Blocked - defect

Using physical slots in the previous example has been shown to create inertia to

modification & improvement

Using movable tokens allows for WIP limits to be easily modified and

provides a natural signal token mechanism

SingleService,Mul`pleClassesofServiceAllocatecapacitywithkanbanlimitpercolor

5 4 4 5 2=20total

AllocaFon

10=50%

+1=+5%

InputBuffer InProg DoneDoneInProg

DevelopmentAnalysis BuildReady Test

ReleaseReady

3ServicesAggregatedTogether

5 4 4 5 2 =20total

ChangeReq12

Maintenance2

ProducFonDefect6

AllocaFonTotal=20

InputBuffer InProg Done

BuildReady Test

ReleaseReadyDoneInProg

DevelopmentAnalysisReleased

Change Requests 3

Prod. Defects

Maintenance

Usability Improvement

ImprovingLiquiditythroughLaborPoolFlexibility

Engin- eering Ready

Ongoing

Analysis Testing

Done Verification Acceptance 3 3 Ongoing

Development

Done 3

Steven

Rhonda

Team Lead

Junior who will be rotated through all 4 teams

Generalist or T-shaped people who can move

flexibly across rows on the board to keep work flowing

It’s typical to see splits of fixed team workers versus flexible system workers of

between 40-60%

Roughly half the labor pool are flexible workers

Promotions from junior team member to flexible worker with an avatar clearly visualize why a pay rise is justified. Flexible workers help manage liquidity

risk better!

IrrefutableDemand

Don’tmissit!

AndyCarmichaelat15h20“IRREFUTABLEDEMAND:Whenyoucan’tsay“NO””§  UNDERSTANDYOUROPTIONS-YOUMAYHAVEMORETHANYOUTHINK!”

Pressurefor“push”ispar`allyinternal

Whydoesitfeellike“push”isinevitableandunavoidable?BecausesomuchdemandisactuallyinternallyspawnedfromexisFngcommitments!SomanyKanbanimplementaFonsareproto-Kanbansemi-pushsystemsbecausetheyserviceinternallygenerateddemandwhichisirrefutableIfyouaretogetto“pull”,yougenerallyhavetostartwithexternallyfacingcustomerservicesOrinsertastrong“definiFonofready”atthecustomerfacingpoint,whichstatesthatwewillonlycommittoexternallydemandwheninternaldependencycapacityisconfirmed(thishasatendencytoleadtoundesirablebehaviors–bigteam/orgunitsizes,bigbatchsizes)

Whatcausesirrefutabledemand?

“we’vealreadycomminedtoit”§  PotenFallybadbehavioronthepartofexecuFvesorsalespeople

§  “thebosswantsit”It’salegalorregulatoryrequirementIt’stablestakesforthiscustomerormarketnicheIt’smissioncriFcal§  HighseverityproducFondefects

Gehngto“pull”

PullrequiresthatdemandisrefutableoratleastdelayableDemandmustbebalancedagainstcapabilitytosupplyDemandcanbeshapedKanbansystemshaveanoFonofcapacityandhenceastrongdefiniFonofreadymayincludewhethercapacityhasbeenbookedinadvanceusingadynamicreservaFonsystem

Isallirrefutabledemandasirrefutableasitseems?

Canweusepolicytoshapedemand?§  Forexample,sacrificefidelityorqualityonitemsofagivenriskcategoryorriskprofiletobifurcatedemandtoasharedsevice?

Canwesmoothdemandthroughbenerunderstandingofwhentoscheduleitoritscostofdelay?§  SchedulehighestcostofdelayitemsatopFmalstartFme,andoffsetotherstolessopFmalstartFmeswhilerecognizingtheircomparaFvecostofdelayislower?

§  i.e.anFcipateoverburdeningandtradeofflostopportunityforsmootherflow,ratherthan…

§  reacFngtooverburdeningbydelayingitems,lengtheningleadFmes,increasingthetailonthedistribuFonandnegaFvelyaffecFngpredictability

Youhavemoremanagementop`onsthanyouthink!

Ensure…§  Usethefeedbackloopsofriskreview,operaFonsreview&strategyreviewtoadjustdemandtocapability

§  UseaholisFcapproachtomanagingthenetworkofinterdependentservices

•  OperaFonsreview•  DynamicreservaFonsystems

§  Decisionmakingisinformed&effecFve•  Riskprofiling•  Demandshapingthresholdsandotherpoliciesareexplicit

§  ManagementofuncomminedopFonsisreturnedtothecustomer

Strategiesforirrefutabledemand

DeferredcommitmentnegoFatedandagreedwithcustomerClassesofService§  maximizeflowofvalue§  buildflexibilitytohandlevariaFonOperaFonsReviewcadencetobalancedemandStaffliquidity§  allocatehighskilled,mulF-skilledstaffbeforelessflexiblestaffExaminetheconstraint/bonleneckinmulFpleworkflows§  Usepoliciestosubordinateotherpartsofthesystemtothebonleneck

(shape/bifurcatedemand)§  elevatetheconstraint/bonleneckLimitcapacity/uFlisaFon(e.g.to50%forplannedwork)ReduceworkinprogressManageflow!

ShapingDemand:Triage

DemandShapingThreshold

Dimension1

Dimension2

Dimension3

Dimension5

Dimension4

Definitely Do

Demand shaping threshold

Talk about this one

Definitely Don’t This

Each risk dimension represents a taxonomy of categories describing a

known risk.

Policy describes the category in each

dimension at or above which we wish to accept demand

DemandShapingThreshold

Dimension1

Dimension2

Dimension3

Dimension5

Dimension4

Don’t Do

Exclusion Zone

Talk about this one

Definitely Do

Thresholds can be used to as upper or lower bounds Exclusion zone can be

to the outside or inside of the graph

GetaDemoofSwiWESP!

SwiWKanbanESPimplementsRiskProfiling&DemandShapingtoManageLarge“Backlogs”

Don’tmissit!

MariaTorrijosLopezat12h30“DEALINGWITHAMASSIVEBACKLOGATTHEWORLD'SNO.2ONLINETRAVELCOMPANY”§  LargescaleEnterpriseServicesPlanningimplementaFon§  RiskprofilinginacFon

Organiza`onalMaturity

Personal Kanban

Aggregated Personal Kanban

Team Kanban

Emergent/Undefined Workflow

Per Person WIP Limit CONWIP

Physical space kanban

Physical token kanban Virtual Kanban

Classes of service Capacity allocation

Liquidity optimization

Aggregated teams

Pa4ernsofKanbanBoardDesigns

RiskHedging

RiskManagement

Benefitsofimprovingmaturity

What’sPreven`ngGehngto“pull”?

6ForcesPreven`ngGehngto“Pull”

1.  NotstarFngwithacustomerfacingservice2.  “Wearejustordertakers”3.  Lackofunderstandingofbusinessrisks4.  LackofmathemaFcalliteracy5.  LackofskillsinnegoFaFonorformingbusiness

agreements6.  Lackofconfidenceplanning&schedulingatscale

1.NotStar`ngwithaCustomerFacingService

TeamKanbanisn’tenoughunlesstheteamoffersabespokeservicethatisdirectlycustomerfacingIniFaFvesstartwherethereisenthusiasmanddon’tfollowthecoachingguidanceon“wheretostartinlargecorporaFons”InternalservicessufferfromirrefutabledemandbutlacktheguidanceorpoliFcalinfluencetocopewithirrefutabledemand

Affec`ngaParadigmShiWto“pull”

Kanbancoachingguidanceon“wheretostart”withinlargeorganizaFons…

1.  MustbeCustomerFacing2.  MustNotbeMissionCriFcal3.  MustbeHighlyvisible4.  StaffareenthusiasFc

§  indeedmayvolunteertopilotthechanges

2.WeareJustOrderTakers

OrganizaFonalstructureorcorporategovernancethatputsproduct&servicedeliveryfuncFonsinasiloswithoutinfluenceorstewardshipoverwhatisselected,whenitisscheduled,andhowitissequenced,isdestrucFveandeconomicallydamagingBuildtrustwithtransparency,visibility,excellenceindelivery,metricsEncouragegreatercollaboraFon–replenishmentmeeFngswithbothsidespresent-requestersanddelivery

3.LackofUnderstandingofBusinessRisks

WithoutaframeworkforanalyzingrisksandscruFnizingtheanalysis,werelyon“theheroproductmanager”.It’slowmaturityupstream!Asharedlanguagefordiscussingbusiness,technicalanddeliveryrisks,fosterscollaboraFonandconsensusElevatetheproductownerfrom“thesingleringableneck”totheowneroftheriskassessmentframeworkEnterpriseServicesPlanningfeaturesarichriskassessmentframeworkwhichisnowimplementedinSwioKanbanESPediFon–getademo!

BlizzardSport&WhyRiskAssessmentMa4ers

Blizzard Factory

BlizzardSport-ReducingRiskActualSitua`on

ProducFonVolume

Make-to-forecastWorld

SalesVolumeReporFngtoHQ

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI0%

LaunchVolume

100%oftotal–>90%risk=90%risk

CycleTime

BlizzardSport–Kanbanetcspeedsupproduc`on

ProducFonVolume

Make-to-forecastWorld

SalesVolumeReporFngtoHQ

AdaptproducFontomake-to-order

LaunchVolume

BlizzardSport–Riskassessment&sequencingproducealargerpayoffinriskreduc`on

ProducFonVolume

Make-to-forecastUSA/CAN/JP

Make-to-orderWorld

SalesVolume

4.ALackofMathema`calLiteracy

ThemathemaFcsofprobabilityinleadFmedistribuFonsandforecasFngservicedeliveryisnotdifficult,butitisn’ttaughtinschoolsoruniversiFesexcepttostaFsFcians!KnowingwhenandwhereGaussiandistribuFons,CentralLimitTheorem&funcFonsofaveragessuchasLinle’sLawapplyandwhentheydon’tisvitallyimportantYoucan’thaveraFonalconversaFonaboutwhentostartthings,orcommitmentsonwhenorhowmuchwillbedeliveredwithoutbasicallymathemaFcalliteracyonprobabilitydistribuFonfuncFons

5.LackofSkillinNego`a`on

Geeksonthedeliverysidegenerallyhaven’tbeentobusinessschool.Businessowners&productmanagersontherequesFngsidehavebeentobusinessschoolandreceivedformaltrainingintheartofnegoFaFonGeekstendtoloseoutinnegoFaFonsBusinesspeoplerefusetoplaythetransparent,collaboraFvegameandemoFonallyresistrealdata&evidenceHowtodealwiththischallengeisaskillweteachinKanbanCoachingProfessionalclasses§  Create“skininthegame”withcollaboraFveworkshops–STATIK§  Or,designkanbansystemswithlayersofclassesofserviceand

capacityallocaFonthatcanberevealedinresponsetocustomerobjecFons

6.LackofConfidencePlanning&Scheduling

KanbanhaslackedacomprehensivedependencymanagementandschedulingsystemThisisnowavailableinEnterpriseServicesPlanningCasestudieswithscheduling&planningboardsappearedasearlyas2009(PositScience),othersinclude…§  SamiHonkonen“SchedulingWorkinKanban”2011§  Visotech,KlausLeopold&LeanKanbanUniversityPress2014

§  Odigeo,MariaTorrijosLopez,LKCEHamburg2016

Reminder-Don’tmissit!

MariaTorrijosLopezat12h30“DEALINGWITHAMASSIVEBACKLOGATTHEWORLD'SNO.2ONLINETRAVELCOMPANY”§  LargescaleEnterpriseServicesPlanningimplementaFon§  RiskprofilinginacFon§  Dynamicreserva`onsystemforschedulingdemand

KanbanisUbiquitous!

DeclareVictory&FightOn!

11yearslaternooneisarguingthatKanbanisn’tappropriateinprofessionalservicesworkCompanieseverywhere,largeandsmall,aresimplydoingit!

Kanbanisbroadlyacceptedagoodthing! Nowitis`metoactuallystartdoingKanbanproperly!

Thankyou!

David Anderson is an innovator in management of 21st Century businesses that employ creative people who “think for a living” . He leads a training, consulting, publishing and event planning business dedicated to developing, promoting and implementing new management thinking & methods…

He has 30+ years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software organizations delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large companies such as Sprint and Motorola.

David defined Enterprise Services Planning and originated the Kanban Method an adaptive approach to improved service delivery. His latest book, published in June 2012, is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban.

David is Chairman of Lean Kanban Inc., a business operating globally, dedicated to providing quality training & events to bring Kanban and Enterprise Services Planning to businesses who employ those who must “think for a living.”

Screenshots of SwiftKanban ESP risk assessment framework courtesy of Digite Blizzard Sport inventory at risk assessment slides courtesy of Erix-Jan Kaak and Tecnica Group

Acknowledgements

Appendices

DynamicReserva`onSystems&ClassesofService

forDependencyManagement

Reserva`onsystems

FirstreportedbySamiHonkonen,“SchedulingWorkinaKanban”November2011hnp://www.samihonkonen.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/scheduling-work-in-kanban.pdf

DynamicReserva`on&ClassesofService

Basedonvariabilityofservicedeliverythroughput1.  Guaranteed–uptotheminimumdeliveryrate2.  Reserved(notguaranteed)–minimumtomeandelivery

rate3.  Stand-by–meantomaximumdeliveryrate

ReservaFonClasses&Kanban

1.  Guaranteed=6/week2.  Reserved=4/week3.  Standby=6/week

Dependencydiscovery

DependencydiscoveryisarequestforinformaFonDependencydiscoveryshouldhappenupstreamandberequiredfora“definiFonofready”ProvidinginformaFonisaserviceWeshouldtrackdependencydiscoveryrequestsasworkitemtypes,ifthelevelofeffortrequiredismorethanafewminutesandbecomesintrusiveforoneormorepeopleontheservicedeliverysideDependencydiscoveryrequests(likemanyrequestsforinformaFon,e.g.esFmates)canbedisrupFve(andspeculaFve)demandWeshouldtreatdependencydiscoverylikeesFmates:don’tdoitunlessyoureallyneedto;ifyouneedtothencontrolthedisrupFveeffectthroughFmeslicingorresource/servicedeliveryisolaFon

ClassesofServiceforReserva`onSystems

WetypicallyassociateclassesofservicewithservicedeliveryandthequeuingdisciplineofFcketsflowingthroughKanbanboardsWecanuseclassesofserviceforreservaFonsinschedulingsystems.Forexample,youcanholda“standby”reservaFonfora“firstclass”airFcket.DifferentclassesofservicesforthereservaFonversustheactualflight

Useriskprofilingtodeterminewhetheryoucareaboutdelayfromdependencyrisk§  E.g.ifwehavealowcostofdelaywhywouldwebothertoexplicitly

managefordependencieswhichmaycausedelayDetermineaclassofservicewhichdirectspolicyonhow(orif)youwillmanagedependenciesforanitemandhowareservaFonwillbemade§  InwhichFmeslotshouldwemakeareservaFonandwhichclassof

service(guaranteed/reserved/stand-by)isappropriate

Class1:NoDependencyManagement

LeadFmedistribuFonsalreadyaccountsfordependencydelays§  Noanempttodiscoverdependencies

Lowriskofincurringanysignificantcostofdelay,orWehavetheabilitytostartearlyenoughthatwedon’tcareaboutleadFmetailriskSojustdoit,don’tworryaboutdependencies.Letthemhappeniftheywill!NoreservaFonforthecallingserviceorcalledservice

ProbabilisFcdependency,probabilisFcscheduling

Class2:TailRiskMi`ga`on.ReservedCapacity

Careabouttailriskduetocostofdelayinthecallingservicee.g.changerequestforITsystemmaintenance.Tailriskisincreasedwhenadependencyexists,e.g.DBA(thecalledservice)Noanempttodetermineifaspecificdependencyoccursorwhenspecificcapacitywillberequiredonthe[DBAservice]Needsreliableserviceandpredictablequeuingonthecalledservice,e.g.DBAsAllocatecapacityonthe[DBAservice]forprobabilisFcallyanFcipateddemand.Use"outcome-drivendesign“todesignforanFcipateddemandwithSTATIK.Linle'sLawprovidesaveragedeliverycapabilitydefiningaWIPlimitforcapacityDemandshaping.Shapedemandfromthecallingserviceagainstaveragedeliverycapability.Avoidoverburdeningthe[DBAservice]

Class2:con`nued…

TrackleadFmeonthecalledservicefromrequestsubmission,asrequestisalreadycommined.BydefiniFondemandonthe[DBAservice]isirrefutable.“Push”demand.LeadFmedistribuFonandSLAwilltakeintoaccountqueuingFmedelayatthefrontendofthe[DBAservice].Ifdynamicbookingsystemisimplemented§  Scheduleslot(s)onthe[DBAservice]sufficientlyfaraheadtoaccountforthetailofitsleadFmedistribuFon

§  Use"Standby"classofserviceforthereservaFon§  BookseveralsimilarreservaFons,orhavecapabilitytorebookamissedreservaFon

Reserveaseriesof“standby”classslotsforthecallingserviceworkitem.NoreservaFononthecalledservice–wedon’tknowwhetherthedependencyexistornot

Class3:KnownDependency.InformedScheduling

CostofdelayismorecriFcal,ornotpracFcaltostartearlyenoughtomiFgatetailriskAddanalysis(informaFonrequest)todetermineifdependenciesexist.FilterleadFmedistribuFonforworkitemswithsamedependenciesUsefilteredleadFmetofacilitatescheduling&selecFonDefiniFonofreadyrequiresdeterminaFonofwhetheradependencyexistsornotUsecapacityallocaFon,demandshapingoncalledserviceAsclass2butbooka“reserved”slotonthecallingsystem.NoreservaFononthecalledsystembecausethefilteredcallingsystemleadFmedistribuFonaccountsfortheeffectofthedependency

DeterminisFcdependency,probabilisFcscheduling

Class4:Knowndependency.SpecificScheduling

CostofdelayissignificantorcriFcal,ordeferredcommitmentisvaluableasaddiFonalinformaFonarrivaltomiFgateotherrisksisrequiredtofacilitate(in/out)selecFondecisions,orsimplynotpossibletostartearlyenoughtomiFgatetailriskTreatasclass3andinaddiFon…AnFcipateapproximatelywhendependencywilloccur.ForecastFmefromcommitmenttodependencyoccurring.Booka"reserved"classkanbaninthedynamicreservaFonsystemforthecallingserviceBooka“guaranteed”slotforthecalledserviceCallingservicedefiniFonofreadyrequiresabookingonthecalledservice

DeterminisFcdependency,determinisFcscheduling

Class5:Nomarginforerror

Asclass4butdefiniFonofreadyisFghtenedto"Guaranteed"classbookinginthereservaFonsystemforboththeworkitemsonthecallingserviceandthecalledservice

DeterminisFcdependency,determinisFcscheduling

Class1DependencyManagement

CallingService

CalledService

WeDon’tCare!

NoWIPlimits

Dependency impact is built into customer lead time distribution. We start early enough & cost of delay is low enough that we don’t

need to explicitly manage the dependency

CallingService

CalledServiceWIPlimits

We wish to mitigate the tail risk in the customer

facing lead time by insuring dependency

delivery is predictable & reliable as a

consequence of reserved capacity on

the called service

CallingService

CalledService

ReservaFonsystem

FilteredleadFme

“Reserved”ClassBooking

DependencyAnalysis

Determine the dependency exists, make a reservation

for it to insure capacity on the

called service when we need it!

CallingService

CalledService

ReservaFonsystem

“Reserved”

“Guaranteed”ClassBooking

“DefnofReady”requiresconfirmedbookingoncalledservice

We want a high confidence in the start time for customer lead time. We take no risk

on dependent capacity becoming

available

CallingService

CalledService

“Guaranteed”

“Guaranteed”ClassBooking

“DefnofReady”requiresconfirmed

“Guaranteed”bookingoncalledservice

No margin for error!

We want 100% confidence in the

start time for customer lead time

and no risk on dependent capacity

availability

Mul`pleReserva`ons

Costofdelay(andotherriskassessment)canbeusedtoestablish,opFmalstart,andwhetherearlierorlaterispreferredifopFmalisn’tavailableMakemulFplebookingsatlowerclassesofservice“reserved”,or“standby”forthesameitem.Ifitshowsupearlyandcapacityisavailablestartit,cancelitsotherreservaFons

“Guaranteed”

“Reserved”

“Standby” 3bookingsforsameFcket

DependencyManagement&CostofDelay

Desired delivery date

Super-LinearRegion

Class2

Class4

Class2

DependencyManagement&CostofDelay

Desired delivery date

Sub-LinearRegion

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