lkce16 - getting to pull at enterprise scale by david j. anderson

Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Email:[email protected] Twi4er:@LKI_dja

TrueBusinessAgilityGe0ngto“pull”atenterprisescale

Presenter David J. Anderson

Lean Kanban Central

Europe Hamburg, Germany

November 2016


KanbanisUbiquitous!


Acceptance

11yearslaternooneisarguingthatKanbanisn’tappropriateinprofessionalservicesworkCompanieseverywhere,largeandsmall,aresimplydoingit!

So,it’sFmetodeclarevictory!We’vewontheargumentthatKanbanisagoodidea!


China

3Chinesecompanieshave“verylargescale”KanbanimplementaFons§  Huawei–Telecoms&electronics–5000+people§  PingAn–Insurance&banking–5000+people§  CMB–Banking–3000+people

MeanwhileinEurope…§  LargescalehasbeenseenatEricsson,Skania,Siemens,Rolls-Royce,BBVA,Odigeo(eDreams,Opodo)andothers


ReturnonInvestment

ImplementaFonsatHuawei,PingAn&CMBhaveeachcostaroundtheequivalentof3fullFmeemployeessalariesHuaweiareseeingimprovementsinproducFvityintherangeof10-50%withanaverageof25%acrossmorethan10productunitsImprovementsatHuaweiaretheequivalentof1250engineerstheydidn’tneedtohireReturnoninvestmentis300->400:1or>30,000%


Don’tmissit!

AdamWuat17h20“PingAnChinaInsurance&Services”CaseStudyKanbanacross5000peopleWhatdiditcost?Whathasitmeantforcompanyperformance,enterpriseagilityandrobustnesstodisrupFvefintech?§  ParFcularlyreleasefrequencyofmobilefinancialapplicaFons


NoHarm!

WhiletherehavebeenfailedKanbanimplementaFons,therearenostoriesofKanbandoingharmtoorganizaFonsUnlikesomeAgilemethodsandothermanagementfadssuchasholacracy,therearenostoriesofKanbancausing20%-40%staffturnoverorinflicFngbrutalandcruelchangeTherehasbeentribal,emoFonalpushbackinorganizaFonswhereAgileisareligion


Butwait,it’snotKanban!

TheproblemwiththisubiquitousandvirtuousadopFonofKanbanisthatitisn’treallyKanbanatall!


KanbanatMicrosoW2005

VirtualKanban“pull”system–Novisualboards!230%producFvityimprovement91%reducFoninaverageleadFmeOn-Fmeperformanceupfrom0%to98%Timeframe–15monthsCost–almostnothing,nocoachingfees,notraining,noconsultants,2permanentteammembersaddedmid-transformaFontakingproducFvityfrom150%improvementto230%improvement


KanbanatHewle4-Packard2006

VirtualKanban“pull”system–novisualboards!700%producFvityimprovement!LeadFmeonnewgeneraFonoflaserprinterfirmwaredroppedfrom21monthsto3.5months4.5dayworkingweekTimeframe–lessthan1yearCost–almostnothing–nocoaches,notraining,noconsultants


Proto-Kanbanrepresentsminorleaguevictory

WhatisbeingimplementedatlargescaleallovertheworldisvisualizaFonandperperson,orperteamWIPlimitsEnterprisesarestrugglingtoimplementend-to-end“pull”atanysignificantscale!

WHY?


Proto-Kanban


TeamKanban

Backlog

F

H

E

C A

G

D

Next Done

3

In-progress

3 ∞ ∞

GY

PB

DE

I

J Avatar for each team member Still at a single team

level but maturing to focus on managing work and less on

managing workers


O

P

R

N

M

L

J

PerPersonWIPLimit

Done

F

H E

C

A

I

Pending

G

D

GY

PB DE

MN

AB

Dev/Build/ Test/Deploy

Dev Ready

GY

GY

PB

PB

MN

MN

DE

DE

AB AB

K

Bench

Specify

B

∞ ∞ ∞

Unbounded Queue

Delayed WIP

At this level, we are focused on managing work and enabling people to self-

organize around it but we aren’t limiting WIP in the

system as a whole. Hence, service delivery will not be

predictable

Moving beyond a single team to a service delivery

workflow


AggregatedTeamKanban

Done

Pool of

Ideas

F

H E

C A

I

Next

Deploy-ment

Ready

G

D

GY PB

DE MN

5 ∞

P1

AB

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done Ongoing Done

3 3

Team 1 Kanban

∞ ∞

Team 2 Kanban



Done

Pool of

Ideas

F

H E

C A

I

Next

Deploy-ment

Ready

G

D

GY PB

DE MN

5 ∞

P1

AB

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done Ongoing Done

3 3 ∞ ∞

Also known as “infinite done

queues”



Done

Pool of

Ideas

F

H E

C A

I

Next

Deploy-ment

Ready

G

D

GY PB

DE MN

5 ∞

P1

AB

Ongoing

Development Testing

Done Ongoing Done

3 3

Infinite limits on Done columns means that there really isn’t a kanban pull system present.

This style of proto-kanban controls multi-tasking but doesn’t limit

workflow WIP

∞ ∞


Benefitsofproto-Kanbanimplementa`ons

Benefits

Transparency Relief from overburdening

Reduced multitasking Improved quality

People engaged emotionally More collaboration Greater empathy


Benefitsofproto-Kanbanimplementa`ons

Benefits

10-50% greater productivity Up to 50% reduction

in lead times Average 25% headcount saving

Return on investment 300->400 : 1


Arewethereyet?


KanbanLitmusTest

1.  Havemanagerschangedtheirbehavior?2.  Hasthecustomerinterfacechanged?3.  Hasthecustomercontractchanged?4.  Hastheservicedeliverybusinessmodelchanged?

Ifyoucan’tansweryestoatleast2ofthesequesFonsitisunlikelyyou’veswitchedtoKanbanyet!YoumayhavetheintenttoadoptitthroughaseriesofevoluFonarystepsiniFallyadopFngproto-Kanban


HaveManagersChangedtheirBehavior?

Aremanagersmanagingpeople,assigningwork,focusedonuFlizaFonlevels,buildingbrinle,determinisFcplans,makingearlycustomercommitmentsandooenmakingpromiseswithoutregardtocapabilityorrespectforrisk&uncertainty?Orhavetheyswitchedtomanagingwork,focusingonflow,forecasFngprobabilisFcally,deferringcommitment,makingpromisesbasedonprobability,embracingriskanduncertainty,andfocusingonduedateperformanceagainstSLAs?


HastheCustomerInterfaceChanged?

AreyousFllanendingthesameoldplanningmeeFngsonthesameoldschedule?Or,haveyouadoptedkanbansystemreplenishmentmeeFngs?ArecustomerspresentatreplenishmentmeeFngs?DoescommitmenthappenatthereplenishmentmeeFngwhenanitemis“pulled”ontotheboard?HasthefrequencyofthemeeFngchanged?Isitmuchmorefrequentthanbefore?


HastheCustomerContractChanged?

AreyousFllmakingcommitmentsthesameway?Hasthepromiseyoumakeandthewayyoumakeitchanged?AreyousFllmakingdeterminisFcplans,promisingprecisescopeandschedule,andhedgingwithconFngencyby“overesFmaFng”size,complexity,orduraFonofwork?OrareyouworkingprobabilisFcally,studyinghistoricaldata,aggregaFngriskandusingservicelevelagreementsasanewstyleofcontractwiththecustomer?


HastheServiceDeliveryBusinessModelChanged?

Areyoucarryingalltherisk?Fixeddeliverydate,fixedscope,fixedcost?PrecisepromisesbasedondeterminisFcplanning?IsallworktreatedhomogenouslyfromariskperspecFve?Doyouprocessallrequeststhesameway?Or,haveyouintroducedclassesofservicebasedonriskprofilingandassessmentofcostofdelay?DoyouoffermulFpleclassesofservicebyallocaFngcapacityandhedgingrisk?IsclassofserviceFedtoriskandurgency?Doyouhaveexplicitpolicyassigningclassofservicetodifferentriskprofiles?


Triage

“pull”createsapressuretotriage:§  Whatshouldwedoimmediately?§  WhatcanwaitunFllater?

•  Andifso,when?(aschedulingproblem)

§  Whatshouldn’twedoatall?(discard)

Ifyouhaven’tdevelopedastrongtriagedisciplinethenyoualmostcertainlyhaven’tachievedend-to-end“pull”


Pull


H

F F

O M

N K

J

I

Usingmovabletokensaskanbanismoreflexible

Ideas

D

E

A

I

Dev Ready

G

Development Testing Test

Ready

F B

C

UAT Release Ready

In-progress

Legend

Done

Blocked - issue

Blocked - defect

Override on kanban limit introduces additional

“blocked – issue” kanban

People working on blocked item “A”

have been redirected to work on item “I”


H

F F

O M

N K

J

I

Usingmovabletokensaskanbanismoreflexible

Ideas

D

E

A

I

Dev Ready

G

Development Testing Test

Ready

F B

C

UAT Release Ready

In-progress

Legend

Done

Blocked - issue

Blocked - defect

Using physical slots in the previous example has been shown to create inertia to

modification & improvement

Using movable tokens allows for WIP limits to be easily modified and

provides a natural signal token mechanism


SingleService,Mul`pleClassesofServiceAllocatecapacitywithkanbanlimitpercolor

5 4 4 5 2=20total

AllocaFon

10=50%

...

+1=+5%

4=20%

6=30%

InputBuffer InProg DoneDoneInProg

DevelopmentAnalysis BuildReady Test

ReleaseReady


3ServicesAggregatedTogether

5 4 4 5 2 =20total

ChangeReq12

Maintenance2

ProducFonDefect6

AllocaFonTotal=20

InputBuffer InProg Done

BuildReady Test

ReleaseReadyDoneInProg

DevelopmentAnalysisReleased


Change Requests 3

1

Prod. Defects

Maintenance

Usability Improvement

2

1

ImprovingLiquiditythroughLaborPoolFlexibility

Teams

F

H

E

C A

Engin- eering Ready

G

D

GY

PB DE

MN

2

P1

AB

Ongoing

Analysis Testing

Done Verification Acceptance 3 3 Ongoing

Development

Done 3

Joe

Peter

Steven

Joann

David

Rhonda

Brian

Ashok

Team Lead

Junior who will be rotated through all 4 teams

Generalist or T-shaped people who can move

flexibly across rows on the board to keep work flowing

It’s typical to see splits of fixed team workers versus flexible system workers of

between 40-60%

Roughly half the labor pool are flexible workers

Promotions from junior team member to flexible worker with an avatar clearly visualize why a pay rise is justified. Flexible workers help manage liquidity

risk better!


IrrefutableDemand


Don’tmissit!

AndyCarmichaelat15h20“IRREFUTABLEDEMAND:Whenyoucan’tsay“NO””§  UNDERSTANDYOUROPTIONS-YOUMAYHAVEMORETHANYOUTHINK!”


Pressurefor“push”ispar`allyinternal

Whydoesitfeellike“push”isinevitableandunavoidable?BecausesomuchdemandisactuallyinternallyspawnedfromexisFngcommitments!SomanyKanbanimplementaFonsareproto-Kanbansemi-pushsystemsbecausetheyserviceinternallygenerateddemandwhichisirrefutableIfyouaretogetto“pull”,yougenerallyhavetostartwithexternallyfacingcustomerservicesOrinsertastrong“definiFonofready”atthecustomerfacingpoint,whichstatesthatwewillonlycommittoexternallydemandwheninternaldependencycapacityisconfirmed(thishasatendencytoleadtoundesirablebehaviors–bigteam/orgunitsizes,bigbatchsizes)


Whatcausesirrefutabledemand?

“we’vealreadycomminedtoit”§  PotenFallybadbehavioronthepartofexecuFvesorsalespeople

§  “thebosswantsit”It’salegalorregulatoryrequirementIt’stablestakesforthiscustomerormarketnicheIt’smissioncriFcal§  HighseverityproducFondefects


Gehngto“pull”

PullrequiresthatdemandisrefutableoratleastdelayableDemandmustbebalancedagainstcapabilitytosupplyDemandcanbeshapedKanbansystemshaveanoFonofcapacityandhenceastrongdefiniFonofreadymayincludewhethercapacityhasbeenbookedinadvanceusingadynamicreservaFonsystem


Isallirrefutabledemandasirrefutableasitseems?

Canweusepolicytoshapedemand?§  Forexample,sacrificefidelityorqualityonitemsofagivenriskcategoryorriskprofiletobifurcatedemandtoasharedsevice?

Canwesmoothdemandthroughbenerunderstandingofwhentoscheduleitoritscostofdelay?§  SchedulehighestcostofdelayitemsatopFmalstartFme,andoffsetotherstolessopFmalstartFmeswhilerecognizingtheircomparaFvecostofdelayislower?

§  i.e.anFcipateoverburdeningandtradeofflostopportunityforsmootherflow,ratherthan…

§  reacFngtooverburdeningbydelayingitems,lengtheningleadFmes,increasingthetailonthedistribuFonandnegaFvelyaffecFngpredictability


Youhavemoremanagementop`onsthanyouthink!

Ensure…§  Usethefeedbackloopsofriskreview,operaFonsreview&strategyreviewtoadjustdemandtocapability

§  UseaholisFcapproachtomanagingthenetworkofinterdependentservices

•  OperaFonsreview•  DynamicreservaFonsystems

§  Decisionmakingisinformed&effecFve•  Riskprofiling•  Demandshapingthresholdsandotherpoliciesareexplicit

§  ManagementofuncomminedopFonsisreturnedtothecustomer


Strategiesforirrefutabledemand

DeferredcommitmentnegoFatedandagreedwithcustomerClassesofService§  maximizeflowofvalue§  buildflexibilitytohandlevariaFonOperaFonsReviewcadencetobalancedemandStaffliquidity§  allocatehighskilled,mulF-skilledstaffbeforelessflexiblestaffExaminetheconstraint/bonleneckinmulFpleworkflows§  Usepoliciestosubordinateotherpartsofthesystemtothebonleneck

(shape/bifurcatedemand)§  elevatetheconstraint/bonleneckLimitcapacity/uFlisaFon(e.g.to50%forplannedwork)ReduceworkinprogressManageflow!


ShapingDemand:Triage


DemandShapingThreshold

Dimension1

Dimension2

Dimension3

Dimension5

Dimension4

Definitely Do

This

Demand shaping threshold

Talk about this one

Definitely Don’t This

Each risk dimension represents a taxonomy of categories describing a

known risk.

Policy describes the category in each

dimension at or above which we wish to accept demand


DemandShapingThreshold

Dimension1

Dimension2

Dimension3

Dimension5

Dimension4

Don’t Do

This

Exclusion Zone

Talk about this one

Definitely Do

This

Thresholds can be used to as upper or lower bounds Exclusion zone can be

to the outside or inside of the graph


GetaDemoofSwiWESP!


SwiWKanbanESPimplementsRiskProfiling&DemandShapingtoManageLarge“Backlogs”


Don’tmissit!

MariaTorrijosLopezat12h30“DEALINGWITHAMASSIVEBACKLOGATTHEWORLD'SNO.2ONLINETRAVELCOMPANY”§  LargescaleEnterpriseServicesPlanningimplementaFon§  RiskprofilinginacFon


Organiza`onalMaturity


Personal Kanban

Aggregated Personal Kanban

Team Kanban

Emergent/Undefined Workflow

Per Person WIP Limit CONWIP

Physical space kanban

Physical token kanban Virtual Kanban

Classes of service Capacity allocation

Liquidity optimization

Aggregated teams

Pa4ernsofKanbanBoardDesigns


RiskHedging

RiskManagement

Benefitsofimprovingmaturity


What’sPreven`ngGehngto“pull”?


6ForcesPreven`ngGehngto“Pull”

1.  NotstarFngwithacustomerfacingservice2.  “Wearejustordertakers”3.  Lackofunderstandingofbusinessrisks4.  LackofmathemaFcalliteracy5.  LackofskillsinnegoFaFonorformingbusiness

agreements6.  Lackofconfidenceplanning&schedulingatscale


1.NotStar`ngwithaCustomerFacingService

TeamKanbanisn’tenoughunlesstheteamoffersabespokeservicethatisdirectlycustomerfacingIniFaFvesstartwherethereisenthusiasmanddon’tfollowthecoachingguidanceon“wheretostartinlargecorporaFons”InternalservicessufferfromirrefutabledemandbutlacktheguidanceorpoliFcalinfluencetocopewithirrefutabledemand


Affec`ngaParadigmShiWto“pull”

Kanbancoachingguidanceon“wheretostart”withinlargeorganizaFons…

1.  MustbeCustomerFacing2.  MustNotbeMissionCriFcal3.  MustbeHighlyvisible4.  StaffareenthusiasFc

§  indeedmayvolunteertopilotthechanges


2.WeareJustOrderTakers

OrganizaFonalstructureorcorporategovernancethatputsproduct&servicedeliveryfuncFonsinasiloswithoutinfluenceorstewardshipoverwhatisselected,whenitisscheduled,andhowitissequenced,isdestrucFveandeconomicallydamagingBuildtrustwithtransparency,visibility,excellenceindelivery,metricsEncouragegreatercollaboraFon–replenishmentmeeFngswithbothsidespresent-requestersanddelivery


3.LackofUnderstandingofBusinessRisks

WithoutaframeworkforanalyzingrisksandscruFnizingtheanalysis,werelyon“theheroproductmanager”.It’slowmaturityupstream!Asharedlanguagefordiscussingbusiness,technicalanddeliveryrisks,fosterscollaboraFonandconsensusElevatetheproductownerfrom“thesingleringableneck”totheowneroftheriskassessmentframeworkEnterpriseServicesPlanningfeaturesarichriskassessmentframeworkwhichisnowimplementedinSwioKanbanESPediFon–getademo!


BlizzardSport&WhyRiskAssessmentMa4ers

Blizzard Factory


BlizzardSport-ReducingRiskActualSitua`on

ProducFonVolume

100%

Make-to-forecastWorld

SalesVolumeReporFngtoHQ

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI0%

Risk

LaunchVolume

100%oftotal–>90%risk=90%risk

CycleTime


BlizzardSport–Kanbanetcspeedsupproduc`on

ProducFonVolume

100%

Make-to-forecastWorld

SalesVolumeReporFngtoHQ


Risk

AdaptproducFontomake-to-order


LaunchVolume


BlizzardSport–Riskassessment&sequencingproducealargerpayoffinriskreduc`on

ProducFonVolume

100%

Make-to-forecastUSA/CAN/JP

Make-to-orderWorld

SalesVolume


Risk



4.ALackofMathema`calLiteracy

ThemathemaFcsofprobabilityinleadFmedistribuFonsandforecasFngservicedeliveryisnotdifficult,butitisn’ttaughtinschoolsoruniversiFesexcepttostaFsFcians!KnowingwhenandwhereGaussiandistribuFons,CentralLimitTheorem&funcFonsofaveragessuchasLinle’sLawapplyandwhentheydon’tisvitallyimportantYoucan’thaveraFonalconversaFonaboutwhentostartthings,orcommitmentsonwhenorhowmuchwillbedeliveredwithoutbasicallymathemaFcalliteracyonprobabilitydistribuFonfuncFons


5.LackofSkillinNego`a`on

Geeksonthedeliverysidegenerallyhaven’tbeentobusinessschool.Businessowners&productmanagersontherequesFngsidehavebeentobusinessschoolandreceivedformaltrainingintheartofnegoFaFonGeekstendtoloseoutinnegoFaFonsBusinesspeoplerefusetoplaythetransparent,collaboraFvegameandemoFonallyresistrealdata&evidenceHowtodealwiththischallengeisaskillweteachinKanbanCoachingProfessionalclasses§  Create“skininthegame”withcollaboraFveworkshops–STATIK§  Or,designkanbansystemswithlayersofclassesofserviceand

capacityallocaFonthatcanberevealedinresponsetocustomerobjecFons


6.LackofConfidencePlanning&Scheduling

KanbanhaslackedacomprehensivedependencymanagementandschedulingsystemThisisnowavailableinEnterpriseServicesPlanningCasestudieswithscheduling&planningboardsappearedasearlyas2009(PositScience),othersinclude…§  SamiHonkonen“SchedulingWorkinKanban”2011§  Visotech,KlausLeopold&LeanKanbanUniversityPress2014

§  Odigeo,MariaTorrijosLopez,LKCEHamburg2016


Reminder-Don’tmissit!

MariaTorrijosLopezat12h30“DEALINGWITHAMASSIVEBACKLOGATTHEWORLD'SNO.2ONLINETRAVELCOMPANY”§  LargescaleEnterpriseServicesPlanningimplementaFon§  RiskprofilinginacFon§  Dynamicreserva`onsystemforschedulingdemand


KanbanisUbiquitous!


DeclareVictory&FightOn!

11yearslaternooneisarguingthatKanbanisn’tappropriateinprofessionalservicesworkCompanieseverywhere,largeandsmall,aresimplydoingit!

Kanbanisbroadlyacceptedagoodthing! Nowitis`metoactuallystartdoingKanbanproperly!


Thankyou!


About

David Anderson is an innovator in management of 21st Century businesses that employ creative people who “think for a living” . He leads a training, consulting, publishing and event planning business dedicated to developing, promoting and implementing new management thinking & methods…

He has 30+ years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software organizations delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large companies such as Sprint and Motorola.

David defined Enterprise Services Planning and originated the Kanban Method an adaptive approach to improved service delivery. His latest book, published in June 2012, is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban.

David is Chairman of Lean Kanban Inc., a business operating globally, dedicated to providing quality training & events to bring Kanban and Enterprise Services Planning to businesses who employ those who must “think for a living.”


Screenshots of SwiftKanban ESP risk assessment framework courtesy of Digite Blizzard Sport inventory at risk assessment slides courtesy of Erix-Jan Kaak and Tecnica Group

Acknowledgements


Appendices


DynamicReserva`onSystems&ClassesofService

forDependencyManagement


Reserva`onsystems

FirstreportedbySamiHonkonen,“SchedulingWorkinaKanban”November2011hnp://www.samihonkonen.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/scheduling-work-in-kanban.pdf


DynamicReserva`on&ClassesofService

Basedonvariabilityofservicedeliverythroughput1.  Guaranteed–uptotheminimumdeliveryrate2.  Reserved(notguaranteed)–minimumtomeandelivery

rate3.  Stand-by–meantomaximumdeliveryrate

ReservaFonClasses&Kanban

1.  Guaranteed=6/week2.  Reserved=4/week3.  Standby=6/week


Dependencydiscovery

DependencydiscoveryisarequestforinformaFonDependencydiscoveryshouldhappenupstreamandberequiredfora“definiFonofready”ProvidinginformaFonisaserviceWeshouldtrackdependencydiscoveryrequestsasworkitemtypes,ifthelevelofeffortrequiredismorethanafewminutesandbecomesintrusiveforoneormorepeopleontheservicedeliverysideDependencydiscoveryrequests(likemanyrequestsforinformaFon,e.g.esFmates)canbedisrupFve(andspeculaFve)demandWeshouldtreatdependencydiscoverylikeesFmates:don’tdoitunlessyoureallyneedto;ifyouneedtothencontrolthedisrupFveeffectthroughFmeslicingorresource/servicedeliveryisolaFon


ClassesofServiceforReserva`onSystems

WetypicallyassociateclassesofservicewithservicedeliveryandthequeuingdisciplineofFcketsflowingthroughKanbanboardsWecanuseclassesofserviceforreservaFonsinschedulingsystems.Forexample,youcanholda“standby”reservaFonfora“firstclass”airFcket.DifferentclassesofservicesforthereservaFonversustheactualflight

Useriskprofilingtodeterminewhetheryoucareaboutdelayfromdependencyrisk§  E.g.ifwehavealowcostofdelaywhywouldwebothertoexplicitly

managefordependencieswhichmaycausedelayDetermineaclassofservicewhichdirectspolicyonhow(orif)youwillmanagedependenciesforanitemandhowareservaFonwillbemade§  InwhichFmeslotshouldwemakeareservaFonandwhichclassof

service(guaranteed/reserved/stand-by)isappropriate


Class1:NoDependencyManagement

LeadFmedistribuFonsalreadyaccountsfordependencydelays§  Noanempttodiscoverdependencies

Lowriskofincurringanysignificantcostofdelay,orWehavetheabilitytostartearlyenoughthatwedon’tcareaboutleadFmetailriskSojustdoit,don’tworryaboutdependencies.Letthemhappeniftheywill!NoreservaFonforthecallingserviceorcalledservice

ProbabilisFcdependency,probabilisFcscheduling


Class2:TailRiskMi`ga`on.ReservedCapacity

Careabouttailriskduetocostofdelayinthecallingservicee.g.changerequestforITsystemmaintenance.Tailriskisincreasedwhenadependencyexists,e.g.DBA(thecalledservice)Noanempttodetermineifaspecificdependencyoccursorwhenspecificcapacitywillberequiredonthe[DBAservice]Needsreliableserviceandpredictablequeuingonthecalledservice,e.g.DBAsAllocatecapacityonthe[DBAservice]forprobabilisFcallyanFcipateddemand.Use"outcome-drivendesign“todesignforanFcipateddemandwithSTATIK.Linle'sLawprovidesaveragedeliverycapabilitydefiningaWIPlimitforcapacityDemandshaping.Shapedemandfromthecallingserviceagainstaveragedeliverycapability.Avoidoverburdeningthe[DBAservice]



Class2:con`nued…

TrackleadFmeonthecalledservicefromrequestsubmission,asrequestisalreadycommined.BydefiniFondemandonthe[DBAservice]isirrefutable.“Push”demand.LeadFmedistribuFonandSLAwilltakeintoaccountqueuingFmedelayatthefrontendofthe[DBAservice].Ifdynamicbookingsystemisimplemented§  Scheduleslot(s)onthe[DBAservice]sufficientlyfaraheadtoaccountforthetailofitsleadFmedistribuFon

§  Use"Standby"classofserviceforthereservaFon§  BookseveralsimilarreservaFons,orhavecapabilitytorebookamissedreservaFon

Reserveaseriesof“standby”classslotsforthecallingserviceworkitem.NoreservaFononthecalledservice–wedon’tknowwhetherthedependencyexistornot



Class3:KnownDependency.InformedScheduling

CostofdelayismorecriFcal,ornotpracFcaltostartearlyenoughtomiFgatetailriskAddanalysis(informaFonrequest)todetermineifdependenciesexist.FilterleadFmedistribuFonforworkitemswithsamedependenciesUsefilteredleadFmetofacilitatescheduling&selecFonDefiniFonofreadyrequiresdeterminaFonofwhetheradependencyexistsornotUsecapacityallocaFon,demandshapingoncalledserviceAsclass2butbooka“reserved”slotonthecallingsystem.NoreservaFononthecalledsystembecausethefilteredcallingsystemleadFmedistribuFonaccountsfortheeffectofthedependency

DeterminisFcdependency,probabilisFcscheduling


Class4:Knowndependency.SpecificScheduling

CostofdelayissignificantorcriFcal,ordeferredcommitmentisvaluableasaddiFonalinformaFonarrivaltomiFgateotherrisksisrequiredtofacilitate(in/out)selecFondecisions,orsimplynotpossibletostartearlyenoughtomiFgatetailriskTreatasclass3andinaddiFon…AnFcipateapproximatelywhendependencywilloccur.ForecastFmefromcommitmenttodependencyoccurring.Booka"reserved"classkanbaninthedynamicreservaFonsystemforthecallingserviceBooka“guaranteed”slotforthecalledserviceCallingservicedefiniFonofreadyrequiresabookingonthecalledservice

DeterminisFcdependency,determinisFcscheduling


Class5:Nomarginforerror

Asclass4butdefiniFonofreadyisFghtenedto"Guaranteed"classbookinginthereservaFonsystemforboththeworkitemsonthecallingserviceandthecalledservice

DeterminisFcdependency,determinisFcscheduling


Class1DependencyManagement

CallingService

CalledService

WeDon’tCare!

NoWIPlimits

Dependency impact is built into customer lead time distribution. We start early enough & cost of delay is low enough that we don’t

need to explicitly manage the dependency



CallingService

CalledServiceWIPlimits

[5]

[2]

We wish to mitigate the tail risk in the customer

facing lead time by insuring dependency

delivery is predictable & reliable as a

consequence of reserved capacity on

the called service



CallingService

CalledService

ReservaFonsystem

[5]

[2]

FilteredleadFme

“Reserved”ClassBooking

DependencyAnalysis

Determine the dependency exists, make a reservation

for it to insure capacity on the

called service when we need it!



CallingService

CalledService

ReservaFonsystem

“Reserved”

“Guaranteed”ClassBooking

“DefnofReady”requiresconfirmedbookingoncalledservice

We want a high confidence in the start time for customer lead time. We take no risk

on dependent capacity becoming

available



CallingService

CalledService

“Guaranteed”

“Guaranteed”ClassBooking

“DefnofReady”requiresconfirmed

“Guaranteed”bookingoncalledservice

No margin for error!

We want 100% confidence in the

start time for customer lead time

and no risk on dependent capacity

availability


Mul`pleReserva`ons

Costofdelay(andotherriskassessment)canbeusedtoestablish,opFmalstart,andwhetherearlierorlaterispreferredifopFmalisn’tavailableMakemulFplebookingsatlowerclassesofservice“reserved”,or“standby”forthesameitem.Ifitshowsupearlyandcapacityisavailablestartit,cancelitsotherreservaFons

“Guaranteed”

“Reserved”

“Standby” 3bookingsforsameFcket


DependencyManagement&CostofDelay

Desired delivery date

Super-LinearRegion

Class2

Class4

Class2


DependencyManagement&CostofDelay

Desired delivery date

Sub-LinearRegion




lkce16 - getting to pull at enterprise scale by david j. anderson

Leadership & Management