managing crop production uncertainties and climate variability through a map-based system -...

Managing crop production uncertainties and climate variability though a map-

based system

By

Jean-Francois (John) Rochecouste Univ. of Qld.Brad Jones Bungulla Farming Pty LtdJames Betti Bungulla Farming Pty Ltd

Acknowledgment:

Case Study : Bungulla Farming

7,200 hectares of cropping

Average 320 mm Annual rainfall – sandy soils

Hard pan layer

Operating Economic Assumption 1 Price of oil to go up

Global Financial crisis effect

Diesel Price monthly retail (US cents/gallon)

Corresponding increase in the price of fertiliser

Operating Economic Assumption 2

Average gross income from wheat in 1997 was:1.4 X $193 = $270.2/hectare

Current price at silo Cambooya $320.00

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20090

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500Wheat prices in Australian dollars at Silo (annual average)

Dolla

rs (A

UD)

Operating Economic Assumption 3

Volatile grain prices

Despite some recent high grain prices in the last 5 years, grain farmers have averaged a -1.4%

productivity decline

source: ABARE presentation 2010 report to GRDC

Climate Risk

Median Precipitation change by 2030??

Suggested: “Decreases of around 5% prevail in winter and spring, particularly in the South-west where they reach 10%”

CSIRO, 2007, Climate change in Australia – Technical Report 2007

Proposed Management Action

Seek to develop a 2-3% increase in productivity per year and manage risks to protect productivity using

best available data

How do we determine data needs?

Does data drive management? (often the case)Letting available data use up time because its interesting …

or

Let operational needs determine available data

Management determined that ‘data’ should support decisions at critical points of crop

production failure using a map based system

Why maps?

• Most suited for managing large geographical and spatially complex units

• Bungulla operates 68 paddock “portfolios”• Can now be digitally interactive

Critical points of Production failure – responsibilities for Jim (farm manager)

• Pre-plant operations – Weeds, moisture, crop option, fertiliser options, frost risk, supply line

• Planting – Prescription fertiliser, labour, equipment readiness

• Weed, pest and disease control – Link with Agronomists, application logistics

• Harvest & storage• Product supply• Staff deployment

Data options for production• Soil (nutrient, pH, structure)• Climate (temp., RH, evaporation, light)• Water (soil moisture, irrigation, water flow)• Topography (drainage, erosion)• Vegetation (vigour, biomass, weeds)• Machinery operation (fertiliser, pesticide, yield)

1 MANAGING NUTRITIONExample

Yield maps

Mean relative yield – normalised from historical data

Stabilisation of yield pattern to check consistency

Operate some field trials if required

Fertiliser application to variable degrees of precision

Adding information to a farm map

Increasing Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE)

Old yield map

Modified Radiometric thorium section

Fertiliser prescription

Test yield results

constant

2 MANAGING WEED CONTROLExample

New potential technical applications: WEEDSEEKERS

What it means to the farmerArea to be sprayed 264 hectares

Weeds Targeted

wild cotton, peach vine, milk thistle and

fleabane

Chemical mix 2.6l/ha (roundup max) + 4.0 l/ha (surpass)

Water rate 80 l/ha

Actual Usage 4.5%

Actual area sprayed 11.88 ha

Actual cost of chemical $583.30

Chemical cost normal spray $12,962.40

ACTUAL CHEMICAL SAVING $12,379.10

Weed maps?

3 INTER-ACTIVE RELATIONSHIPSExample

What’s causing this???

Critical Points of Production failure – responsibilities for (Brad J) owner

• Finance - Cash supply, stubble, crop options

• Environment (created externalities) – salinity, off-site movement of pollutants (drift & run-off)

• Climate (long term) – Rainfall, temperature

• Staff – maintain & train

• Personal

Crop options

1 MANAGING FINANCE DATAExample

Sell to feed or keep stubbleHelps current cash flow but might compromise next crop

Forgoes present cash to supports next crop

Gross margin maps: $ return by area

2 MANAGING CONTAMINATED RUN-OFF

Example

Evaluating environmental risks using Topography & vegetation

Summary

• Management & Operations communicate comfortably with maps

• Operation concentrate on PROCESS with feedback

• Management concentrate on big picture outlook

• Australia farmers are capable of adapting but it’s a TEAM EFFORT not a brain injection process

Thank you