mid-term adequacy forecast 2016 · thank you for your attention daniel huertas hernando, ph.d....

Mid-termAdequacyForecast2016

6July2016

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Whatdoweassess?

RisktoEUsecurityofsupplyoverthenext10years

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Howdidwedoit?

Market-basedprobabilisticmethodologyappliedforthe1sttimetothepan-EUarea

Benchmarkofresultsusing4differentsoftware

Data andassumptions providebasisforfurtherstudiesatregionallevelandnationallevel

Howdidwedoit?

2020Basecase

Dayaheadmarket

2020SensitivityI

Dayaheadmarket

Operationalreserves

2020SensitivityII

Dayaheadmarket

Operationalreserves

HVDCinterconnectionavailability

2025Basecase

Dayaheadmarket

Whatindicatorsdidweuse?

• EnergyNotSuppliedorENSistheamountofenergynotsuppliedexpressedinmegawatthourperyear

• LossofLoadExpectationorLOLE isthenumberofhoursperyeardemandisnotmet

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Whatdidwefindout?Sowhatdidwefindout?

EvolutionoftheriskinEurope

Interactivemaps

Probabilisticmethods

Combinationoffactorstodetect‘exceptional’situations

Probabilisticmethods

Example:2Combinations

Probabilisticresults

AVERAGE

Probabilisticresults

Probabilisticresults:BaseCase2020

Probabilisticresults:BaseCase2025

2020à 2025

@TYNDP2016<0%

Constantdemand

≥0%and<1.03%(ENTSO-Eav)

≥1.03%and<2.06%

≥2.06%

TYNDP2016

Demand

NewGeneration

Mix

FlexibilityandInfrastructurewillbeneeded inthefuture

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Thank you for your attention

Daniel Huertas Hernando, Ph.D.Senior Advisor / Team Lead Adequacydhh@entsoe.euwww.entsoe.eu

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Questions?

Lessons learned

For the first time probabilistic methods have been used to assess risk to security of

supply at the pan-European level

The MAF gives the pan-European perspective that can later be used for

additional regional and national studies

Whatweachieved

Need for a permanent group of transmission system operators expert to

work on MAFCoordination and consistency between MAF and regional and national studies needs to

be improvedInformation, knowledge and best practice

exchange increase the quality of all outputs

Whatweachieved

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Whatcanweimprovenexttime?

Use the data of 35 climatic years instead of 14

Improve assumptions on Net Transfer Capacity

Model demand response

Use flow-based models