model description

Assessment of contributionsto climate change:Results from CICERO

UNFCCC Expert meeting, Bracknell, 25-27 September 2002

Bård Romstad, Jan Fuglestvedt and Terje BerntsenCICERO, Norway

Model description

• Simple Climate Model (SCM) (Fuglestvedt and Berntsen, 1999)

• Incorporates an energy-balance climate/up-welling diffusion ocean model developed by Schlesinger et al. (1992)

• A CO2 scheme from Joos et al. (1996)

• Lifetimes and concentration-forcing relations from IPCC TAR

• Includes 32 source gases

• Global radiative forcing is calculated for 35 components

• Global-mean ΔT and ΔSL from ocean thermal expansion (and melting of glaciers) (Schlesinger et al., 1992)

Model description (cont.)

• The model source code can be obtained by contacting

bard.romstad@cicero.uio.noorj.s.fuglestvedt@cicero.uio.no

Model setup for attribution calculation

SCMEmission database(CDIAC/EDGAR/

SRES)

World

OECD

REF

ASIA

ALM

World

OECD

REF

ASIA

ALM

WorldOECDREFASIAALM

Results (dT,dSL)

Results (dT,dSL)

Results (dT,dSL)

Results (dT,dSL)

Results (dT, dSL)

Attribution calculation

Perturbation of CO2 emissions for ALM

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

TgC

CO2 World

CO2 ALM

Model input (emission perturbations)

Emission database(CDIAC/EDGAR/

SRES)

World

OECD

REF

ASIA

ALM

Model output (dT)

Attribution calculation

WorldOECDREFASIAALM

Results (dT,dSL)

Results (dT,dSL)

Results (dT,dSL)

Results (dT,dSL)

Results (dT, dSL)

World dT and ALM deviation

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

World

ALM

World

OECD

REF

ASIA

ALM

SCM

World dT and regional deviations

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

World

OECD

REF

ASIA

ALM

Model output (all regions)

Results (dT,dSL)

Results (dT,dSL)

Results (dT,dSL)

Results (dT,dSL)

Results (dT, dSL)

World dT and regional deviations (stacked)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

ALM attribution

ASIA attribution

REF attribution

OECD attribution

Total dT

Attribution calculation

Attribution calculation

n

iiw

rwr

TT

TT

1

)(

Attribution calculation (αr)DEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O perturbations from 1890-2000

Relative dT attribution (default case)

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

α

ALM attribution

ASIA attribution

REF attribution

OECD attribution

Attribution from CO2, CH4 and N2O, 1890-2000Attribution based on dT (emission period: 1890-2000)

40 %46 % 49 %

15 %15 % 14 %

26 %19 % 17 %

20 % 20 % 20 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2000 2050 2100

OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution

Attribution based on dSL (emission period: 1890-2000)

42 % 44 % 46 %

14 % 14 % 14 %

26 % 23 % 21 %

18 % 19 % 19 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2000 2050 2100

OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution

Model setup for sensitivity study

Time frame

Attribution calculation period

1890 2100

Em

issi

on s

ourc

es+s

inks

CO2

AllGHGs

All forcingagents

CO2,CH4N2O

Kyotobasket

Historical Emissions

1890

Scenario Emissions

21001950 2000

Gas

es

Time frame sensitivity

• Emission attribution periods– 1890-2000 (default)– 1950-2000– 1890-2100– 1950-2100

Time frame sensitivity (em start and end)DEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O attribution from 1890-2000Default case and range from changes in timeframe parameters

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution

2000 2050 2100

Time frame sensitivity (cont.)

• Emission attribution periods– 1890-2000 (default)– 1950-2000

Timeframe sensitivity (em start only)DEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O attribution from 1890-2000Default case and range from changes in perturbation start date

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution

2000 2050 2100

Scope sensitivity

• Sensitivity due to inclusion/exclusion of gases– CO2 only– CO2, CH4 and N2O (default)– Kyoto basket– (all cases with emission attribution period 1890-

2000)

Gases includedDEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O attribution from 1890-2000

Default case and range from changes in perturbed gases

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution

2000 2050 2100

Attribution from CO2 only , 1890-2000Attribution based on dT in 2000, 2050 and 2100 (CO2 case, attribution: 1890-2000)

46 % 45 % 45 %

16 % 16 % 16 %

20 % 21 % 21 %

18 % 18 % 18 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2000 2050 2100

OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution

Attribution based on dSL in 2000, 2050 and 2100 (CO2 case, attribution: 1890-2000)

49 % 47 % 47 %

15 % 15 % 15 %

19 % 20 % 20 %

17 % 18 % 18 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2000 2050 2100

OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution

Attribution from CO2, CH4 and N2O, 1890-2000Attribution based on dT (emission period: 1890-2000)

40 %46 % 49 %

15 %15 % 14 %

26 %19 % 17 %

20 % 20 % 20 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2000 2050 2100

OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution

Attribution based on dSL (emission period: 1890-2000)

42 % 44 % 46 %

14 % 14 % 14 %

26 % 23 % 21 %

18 % 19 % 19 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2000 2050 2100

OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution

Attribution from all Kyoto-gases, 1890-2000Attribution based on dT in 2000, 2050 and 2100 (Kyotobasket, attribution: 1890-2000)

40 %47 % 50 %

15 %15 % 14 %

25 %19 % 16 %

20 % 19 % 19 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2000 2050 2100

OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution

Attribution based on dSL in 2000, 2050 and 2100 (Kyotobasket, attribution: 1890-2000)

42 % 45 % 46 %

14 % 14 % 14 %

26 % 23 % 21 %

18 % 19 % 19 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2000 2050 2100

OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution

Source sensitivity

• Sensitivity due to exclusion of LUCF– Attribution period 1890-2000

SourcesDEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O attribution from 1890-2000

Default case and range from changes in included sources

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

OECD attribution REF attribution ASIA attribution ALM attribution

2000 2050 2100