n84 unclassified rear admiral dave titley, ph.d. oceanographer of the navy / director task force...

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Rear Admiral Dave Titley, Ph.D.Oceanographer of the Navy / Director Task Force Climate Change

October 15, 2009

This Presentation is Unclassified

Task Force Climate Change Update and Science & Technology Needs

Consortium for Ocean Leadership

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Overview

• Task Force Climate Change

• Navy Arctic Roadmap

• What We Know

• Adapting to Climate Change

• Science & Technology Needs

• Way Ahead

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Task Force Climate Change

• Established by Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)– To identify Navy action regarding climate change

– Near-term focus: Arctic

• Charter– Develop a science-based timeline for Navy action

– Recommend Navy policy, strategy, investment, & outreach

• Service, interagency, & scientific community support– Navy & Coast Guard Staffs, Office of Naval Research, Arctic Submarine Lab

– NOAA, NASA, Departments of State, Commerce, Homeland Security

– National Academies, leading climate science universities (APL-UW, WHOI), Naval War College, National Defense University, Naval Postgraduate School

Coordinate & communicate Navy action regarding the Arctic & climate change

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Task Force Climate ChangeFocus Areas

U.S. Navy Photo

Readiness & Capability

Assessment & Prediction

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5 Focus Areas

TFCCObjectives

Environmental assessment & prediction underpin all TFCC focus areas

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Navy Arctic RoadmapKey Themes

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Improved understandingRegarding the current & predicted environment

Cooperative partnershipsWith interagency and international stakeholders

Increased experienceThrough exercises & operations

UNCLOS advocacyProviding a governance framework that supportssecurity & stabilityInformed investments

Providing the right capabilityat the right time & cost

Navy POM

Navy recognized as a valued joint, interagency, & international partner in the Arctic

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What We Know

• Warming Earth is causing:– Sea level rise

– Changing ocean chemistry, precipitation patterns,

hydrological & ecological systems

– Decreasing snow & ice extent

• Climate change projections are uncertain & variable– Global temperature & precipitation patterns

well-modeled to 100 yrs

– Ice, tropical storm, sea-level rise, &

ocean acidity NOT well-modeled

• Climate change will impact the Navy – Infrastructure, missions, operating areas

IPCC projections are insufficient for Navy force structure & installation investment decisions over the next 30-50 years

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Adapting to Climate Change

Decision Superiority: Making better decisions faster than the adversary

BattlespaceBattlespace On DemandOn DemandLinking Forecasts to DecisionsLinking Forecasts to Decisions

Decision Superiority: Making better decisions faster than the adversary

BattlespaceBattlespace On DemandOn DemandLinking Forecasts to DecisionsLinking Forecasts to Decisions

Naval Oceanography’s operational concept provides framework for developing climate change adaptation strategies

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Science & Technology Needs

Recommend National Academies climate modeling study address these needs

ImproveModel Physics

Increase Model Resolution

– Adaptive, higher-density observation net– Regional scale spatial resolution– Decadal scale temporal resolution

Address Uncertainties

– Quantify uncertainty & confidence levels– Provide probability distribution functions in output – Represent variability across multiple temporal &

spatial scales – Reduce uncertainty in ice, sea level rise, water systems/precipitation, & tropical storms

– Ice sheet dynamics & contribution to sea level rise– Impact of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems– Feedback processes & geo-engineering – Factors causing abrupt climate change

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National Climate Consortium

Current capabilities (IPCC) are lacking• Science & Technology needs are national, not TFCC, needs• Identified by the National Academy of Science and the Office of Science & Technology Policy

Today’s National efforts are fractured & stove-piped• Multiple agencies working on the same problem• Observation systems, climate models, & decision support

A way ahead• Synchronize efforts across the US agencies• Leverage prior investments of each• Capitalize on the strengths of individual organizations• Unify climate & operational prediction capabilities when possible

To develop & implement a National climate observation & modeling strategy