north atlantic ecosystem modeling/observation globec transitioning need: transition science and...

North Atlantic Ecosystem Modeling/Observation

GLOBEC Transitioning

Need: Transition science and tools developed in GLOBEC into operational tools for managers

GLOBEC Goal: Quantify Quantify the effects of climate the effects of climate change on key species of change on key species of marine animals.marine animals.

US GLOBEC Georges Bank Program

To understand the processes To understand the processes controlling recruitment of cod and controlling recruitment of cod and haddock and their dominant haddock and their dominant copepod prey species as affected copepod prey species as affected by climate change.by climate change.

Overall Objective

Biomass at Age

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

x 104

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

Spawning Stock Biomass

Number of

Recruits

Stock ̶ Recruitment

Georges Bank Haddock

Copepods vs Year

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

500

450

400

350

300

250

Salinity Anomaly

Pseudocalanus (μg m-3)

Larval growth vs prey Larval Mortality vs Year

Sampling Grid

Green & Pershing 2007 Green & Pershing 2007 ScienceScience

Climate: North Atlantic Oscillation

Slope Water Intrusions Reduce Nutrients

Upwelling

LSW= low nutrients

Regional-scale Model Basin-scale Model

Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS)

Concentration-based Food-web and Copepod

Species Models

Physics Nutrients andPhytoplankton

CopepodSpecies

Input data

Bio-physical model

ModelOutput

3D Distributions of T, S, u, v, w, N, P, μZ, D, and copepod species over the period 1995-1999

Ji, Davis, Chen, Beardsley, et al. Ji, Davis, Chen, Beardsley, et al.

1995-1999

Nutrients & PhytoplanktonQuickTime™ and a

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Nauplii

Pseudocalanus, 1995Eggs

Copepodites

Adults

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Cod-haddock individual-based modelThe mechanistic feeding component uses biological and physical properties of predator, prey, and environment for calculations

Kristiansen w/ Werner, Lough, Buckley, Kristiansen w/ Werner, Lough, Buckley, Fogarty, PetrikFogarty, Petrik

Transitioning: Fisheries conservation

• GLOBEC 3D model predicts effects of local & remote forcing on:– Lower food web (NPZD)– Dominant copepod species– Cod/haddock larval survival

• Need to incorporate with adult fish stock assessment• Use for other species: fish, scallops, lobsters

Transitioning: Other Applications

Many other applications of this 3D modeling

• red tide • right whales • pollution transport, watershed interface • siting of outfalls, golf courses • search and rescue• storm/hurricane surge/run-up• port security• sea-level rise/inundation

Transitioning: 3D model: Mass Coast

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Future: Modeling & Observing System

3D Model can be used to:

• design observing system

• data assimilation

• interactive sampling

• provide ocean forecasts Temperature

Modeling & Observing System GOMOOS, COOA

ORIONLEO

MVCO

Future: Modeling & Observing System: NE Partnerships

AcademicWHOI, UMASSD, MIT, UNH, UMaine, GOMOOS, URI, GMRI, RARGOM, GOMODP, et. al.IndustryHydroid Inc.Teledyne Inc. Seascan Inc. Web Research Inc.Falmouth Scientific, Inc.FederalNOAA-NMFS

Research & Development

NOAA-NOSNOAA-NMFS

Operational Modeling

PrivateFoundationsIndividualsFederalNOPP-IOOSNSF-ORIONDHS, USCG, EPAStateMA, NH, ME, RIIndustryFishing, Shipping,Envir. Consult.

Funding

IndustryFishingShippingEnvir. Consult.FederalNMFS, DHS, USCG, EPAStateMWRANEFMCMA CZM, DMFME, NH DMR LocalCounty, Town CCs, ShellfishNGOsConservation

End Users

NOAA, IndustryWHOI, GOMOOS

Observing system maintenance

Workshop: Fall 2008, GoM-GB EBM-MOS

Straw Agenda:

• Day 1 – Plenary talks: politicians, scientists, end-users

• Day 2 – Working Groups – Intermixing of pre-selected task-oriented groups

Sensor and platform development Data integration and modeling. End user interface

• Day 3 – Working Groups – Develop end-to-end prototypes by task-oriented groups

Cod/haddock HABs Sediment Transport

Sponsored by WHOI’s Ocean Life Institute in partnership with: CICOR, COI, COSMOS, NERACOOS, RARGOM, GOMOOS

• Day 1 – Plenary talks: politicians, scientists, end-users

• Day 2 – Working Groups – Intermixing of pre-selected task-oriented groups

Sensor and platform development Data integration and modeling. End user interface

• Day 3 – Working Groups – Develop end-to-end prototypes by task-oriented groups

Scallops Right whales Innundation/storm surge

Sponsored by WHOI’s Ocean Life Institute in partnership with: CICOR, COI, COSMOS, NERACOOS, RARGOM, GOMOOS

Workshop: Spring 2009, GoM-GB EBM-MOS

Straw Agenda:

• Day 1 – Plenary talks: politicians, scientists, end-users

• Day 2 – Working Groups – Intermixing of pre-selected task-oriented groups

Sensor and platform development Data integration and modeling. End user interface

• Day 3 – Working Groups – Develop end-to-end prototypes by task-oriented groups

Lobsters Pollution: toxic, eutrophication, hypoxia Search and Rescue

Sponsored by WHOI’s Ocean Life Institute in partnership with: CICOR, COI, COSMOS, NERACOOS, RARGOM, GOMOOS

Workshop: Summer 2009, GoM-GB EBM-MOS

Straw Agenda:

BASIN: Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis, and Integration - Resolving the impact of climatic processes on ecosystems of the North Atlantic basin and shelf seas.

Goal: To understand and predict the impact of climate change on key species of plankton and fish, and associated ecosystem and biogeochemical dynamics in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre System and surrounding shelves, in order to improve ocean management and conservation.

Scenario for trans-Atlantic BASIN sampling

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