observing climate variability and change thomas r. karl

Observing ClimateVariability and Change

Thomas R. Karl

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service

National Climatic Data Center

Asheville, NC 28801-5001, USA

PHYSICAL

PROCESS

BIOLOGICALPROCESSES

CLIMATE CHANGE FORCINGS

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FOREST MIGRATION

YIELD

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1) How has the climate changed or varied?

2) How well do we understand the climate system ?

3) What are the causes of climate change and variability?

4) How can we characterize the impacts of climate change?

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How significant are the uncertainties?

State and Forcings Variables

Few have quantitative confidence intervals (CIs) (including time-dependent biases) e.g., global surface temperature, CO2

Most CIs do not include time-dependent biases

For many, CIs are uncertain or unknown

Why?

Adhering to climate observing principles and guidelines still does not have a high prioritySmoothed annual anomalies of global combined

land-surface air and sea surface temperatures (oC).

Adoption of ten principles for climate monitoring

More comprehensive global observations--- Prioritization concept

Improved global telecommunications

Better use of data… more products

Critical need for system monitoring and oversight responsibility --- Examples

The Climate Observing System: What is needed?

The Climate Observing System: What is needed?

Adherence to Ten Principles for both space- and surface-based observations

1. Management of Network Change

2. Parallel Testing

3. Metadata

4. Data Quality and Continuity

5. Environmental Assessments

The international framework for sharing data is vital.

6. Historical Significance

7. Complementary Data

8. Climate Requirements

9. Continuity of Purpose

10. Data and Metadata Access

Definition of Terms

Time to Pay-Off – the time required for an impact to be realized, i.e., upgrading an existing system or implementing a new system

Feasibility – readiness to implement the observing system considering technical aspects and resource requirements

Impact – potential for reducing uncertainties

A Global Network of Reference Quality Radiosonde Sites

Example: Demonstrating Prioritization Concept

Temperature Indicators “Climate Impacts”

Temperature Indicators “Climate Understanding”

Hydrological Indicators “Climate Impacts”

Hydrologic Indicators “Climate Understanding”

What are the causes of climate change and variability

The Climate Observing System: What is needed?

Observing Systems Oversight and System Monitoring Capability

Establish climate requirements for observing systems (atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial, cryosphere), such as

weather services do today

Includes instruments on satellites

Spatial and temporal sampling, etc.

Reprocessing and reanalysis

Tracks the performance of the observations, the gathering of the data, and the processing systems

Resources and influence to fix problems

Real-time Network Performance Monitoring

U.S. Climate Reference Network

Five different research teams using independent methods to identify time-dependent biases in the tropospheric temperature records

Teams:NOAA – GFDL

– NCDCUniv. of AlabamaUK Meteorological OfficeTexas A & M University)

Observing and Data System Deficiencies

Courtesy: Free et al(in review BAMS)

Percent of Teams Identifying Biases

Adoption of ten principles for climate monitoring

More comprehensive global observations

Improved global telecommunications

Better use of data… more products

Critical need for system monitoring and oversight responsibility

The Climate Observing System: What is needed?

Some Variables are Effectively Monitored for Trend

Scripps Institute of Oceanography

NOAA

Impact of Satellite Orbital Drift Will be fixed on US NPOESS (2009)

Ascending minus descending temperatures MSU2 JJA 1989-91 from NOAA 11

Observing and Data System Deficiencies

Diurnal corrections required for each satellite.

Changes in orbits and equator crossing times of satellites are aliased onto the diurnal cycle, requiring corrections

MSU channel 2 temperatures over land, from Wentz (black lower)and Christy-Spencer (red lower) and difference (top).

Effect of Calibration Target Correction on MSU Channel 2

Observing and Data System Deficiencies

Courtesy F. Wentz