outthinker 45 min talk for columbia alumni club ny
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Your Next Winning Move
CBSACNY
New York January 23 2014
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Mohammad Yunus
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Ratan Tata
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Betsy Johnson
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Thomas Edison
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Ray Kroc
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Richard Branson
Oprah Winfrey
Elizabeth Arden
Dhirubhai Ambani
Bill Gates Charles Revson
Henry Ford
Sōichirō Honda
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Martin Luther King, Jr.
Mother Teresa
Mahatma Gandhi
Nelson Mandela
Rosa Parks Mohammad Yunus
Margaret Thatcher
Benjamin Franklin
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“First they ignore you,then they laugh at you,
then they fight you,then you win.”
Mohandas Gandhi
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The option beyond the obvious choices; the option others do not see, will not
consider, and will not respond effectively to.
The 4th Option®
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Go home
Wait
Climb the walls
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What is your next4th Option®?
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Two Standard Approaches
Follow proven rules or best practices
Rules
1. Alkdjfklsdlkj2. Asdlkfj bou3. Alsk boiuoidf4. Goibjhkal dgs5. Glijgbuu gds6. gljgoiud
Lay out options, apply data, arrive at the optimal option
Option narrowing
X
XX
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Objectives
Imagine and commit to realizing a different future
Imagine
Choose leverage points others overlook
Dissect
Generate more potential strategies
Expand
Choose strategies competitors will not copy
Analyze
Build buy-in for your strategy
Sell
Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Personal Example
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Objectives
Imagine and commit to realizing a different future
Imagine
Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Objectives
Imagine and commit to realizing a different future
Imagine
Choose leverage points others overlook
Dissect
Generate more potential strategies
Expand
Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Alexandra Kosteniuk
How Do Great Strategists See the “Winning Move?”
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Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory
Consciousness
Phonetic loop Visuo-special sketchpad Episodic buffer
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Relative number of narratives chess players recognize:
Grand master Master Expert
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Europe & Americas –Fairy tales
Japan – Koan
India – Puranas
China – 36 stratagems
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Identifying Outthinkers
Value creation (TRS)
Revenue growth (CAGR)
(EBITDA)Profit margin
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Core Research
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Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
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Move Early to the Next Battleground22
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Move Early to the Next Battleground22
“I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which
only the government can.”
Elon Musk, founder, Space-X (2003 interview)
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Move Early to the Next Battleground22
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Identify and move early to the next battleground.
Where is the next battleground?- Technological trends?- Social shifts?- Geographies?- Buying patterns?- Needs?
22Move Early to the Next Battleground
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
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Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
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Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power.
Who would we like to coordinate?- Customers- Experts- Employees- Real estate- Regulators- Competitors- Driveways- …
Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
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Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Force a Two-Front Battle7
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7 Force a Two-Front Battle
Cloud providers
Cloud servicesRetail
“There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming.”
- Jeff Bezos
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7 Force a Two-Front Battle
Shoes
ShoesCustomer service
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7 Force a Two-Front Battle
Traditional CPA firms
ProjectsResources (Accnts)
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Force a two-front battle7
Project your what you are great at into a new area.
What is your unique advantage, capability, or purpose?
Into what new area could you project this?
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Environment
Employees
Community
Govern-ment /country
Share-holders
Customers
Be Good33
Corporation
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33
61
Be Good
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The Holstee Manifesto
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Adopt a strategy that benefits others.
What purpose/ mission/ movement would build support from stakeholders that can help you succeed?
Be good33
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Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Create Something Out of Nothing32
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Create Something Out of Nothing32
Julie Pickens
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Ingvar Kamprad
Create Something Out of Nothing32
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Create Something Out of Nothing32
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Create Something Out of Nothing32
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Add a new piece the board.
What would you like to create/ add to the game?- New categories?- New occasions or needs?- New customers?- New suppliers?- New distributors?- New regulations?
Create something out of nothing32
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Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
How can you project into a new sector?
What can you create?
Where is the next battleground?
Who could you coordinate?
How can you be good?
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Objectives
Imagine and commit to realizing a different future
Imagine
Choose leverage points others overlook
Dissect
Generate more potential strategies
Expand
Choose strategies competitors will not copy
Analyze
Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
“Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools.”
Napoleon Bonaparte
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Selecting your 4th Option
High
Low
Crazy ideas Winning moves
Wastes of time Tactics
Impact• How far would
this get me toward my goal?
• How long before the competition responds?
Difficult Easy
• Can we do this quickly?• Is this inexpensive?• Do we have the capability?
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Selecting your 4th Option
High
Low
Crazy ideas Winning moves
Wastes of time Tactics
Impact• How far would
this get me toward my goal?
• How long before the competition responds?
Difficult Easy
• Can we do this quickly?• Is this inexpensive?• Do we have the capability?
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Make the impossible possible
Don’t build handsets
Risk of noWiFi
Customer Service toocostly
“Each of these looked like show
stoppers”
Motorola
Earlyadopter
s
No one provides service
David Morken, CEO Bandwidth.com
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Objectives
Imagine and commit to realizing a different future
Imagine
Choose leverage points others overlook
Dissect
Generate more potential strategies
Expand
Choose strategies competitors will not copy
Analyze
Build buy-in for your strategy
Sell
Mr. Practical Mr. Obvious Mr. Expert Mr. What Works Mr. Cog
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Mohammad Yunus
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Thomas Edison
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Ratan Tata
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Ray Kroc
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Betsy Johnson
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kaihan@outthinker.comwww.outthinker.com @kaihan• Email me to get
presentation• Register for newsletter,
tools, videos• Work out your Fourth
Option®• Contact us for more
support
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
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