potentials and limitations of marine exploited resources ... coll... · the world register of...

Marta Coll14th November 2017, Madrid

https://martacoll.sciencemcoll@icm.csic.es

Potentials and limitations of marine exploited resources for seafood security

Potentials of marine ecosystems

Limitations to the “business as usual”

Building an integrated view

Take home messages

Potentials of marine ecosystems

http://www.e-mta.eu

Biodiversity, understood as the degree of variation of life forms, ranges from genetic diversity to that of species, functions and ecological

interactions and ecosystems

Marine ecosystems

Mora et al. 2011. PLoSBiology; Costello and Chaudhary 2017. CB

There arepredictions of 8.7 million eukaryotic species

globally, of which 2.2 million are marine (86% of the

species on Earth and 91% in the ocean still await

description)

The World Register of Marine Species (WoRMS) contains 243.000 species, 16% are marine

Marine habitats

http://www.emodnet-seabedhabitats.eu

Highly diverse and heterogenic

The visible and the invisible

Genetic, functional biodiversity and ecological interactions

Cefas 2012

Ecosystem services

Oceanwealth.org/ecosystem-services

Provisioning services (seafood, timber, algae, minerals, health)

Regulating services (coastal protection, prevent erosion, water purification, carbon storage)

Cultural services (recreation, beauty, spiritual, intellectual, cultural benefits)

Food provision

FAO SOFIA 2016

Food provision

FAO SOFIA 2016

Economic evaluation

Oceanwealth.org/ecosystem-services

Ecosystem services

Oceanwealth.org/ecosystem-services

Supporting services: services that are necessary for all of the

other ecosystem services to occur

Limitations of the “business as usual”

• New geological era: significant human influence

• Multiple high-impact human activities

• Erosion of biodiversity and global change (climate)

• Current crossroads: use and conservation

Lotze et al. 2006. Science, Rockström et al . 2009. Nature; Estes et al. 2011. Science; Tittenson et al. 2014. Science; McCauley et al. 2015. Science

The Anthropocene

• IUCN Red List shows increase in threatened species• Plentiful local extinctions (terrestrial and marine)• Trophic downgrading, Defaunation, FDFW, ...• Biodiversity and structure - functioning• Biodiversity and stability - productivity• Impact of ecosystem services (socio-economic impacts)

Lotze et al. 2006. Science; Halpern et al. 2008; Estes et al. 2011. Science; Tittenson et al. 2014. Science; McCauley et al. 2015. Science

Global Change

Human impacts in the ocean (2013)

Halpern et al 2008. Science 2008, 2015. Nature

Global Change

Based on 19 anthropogenic stressors

Jackson et al. 2001. Science; Halpern et al Science 2008; NOAA 2017; Cheung et al. 2010. GCB; FAO SOFIA 2016

Global Change

Primary producers changes bottom-up effects

Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno. 2010. Science; Boyce et al. 2011. Nature; Boyce et al. 2014. PIO; Malbà et al. 2014. BIOCONS

www.ceab.csic.es

Changes from 1842 to 2009

Ecological consequences

Decreased abundance of larger marine animals

Christensen et al. 2003. F&F; Lotze and Worm. 2009. TREE; McClenacha.n 2009. ConsBio

1958 1985 2007

Decrease in mean size of macrofauna species

Ecological consequences

Jackson et al. 2001. Science; Sandin et al. 2008. PLoS ONE; Baum and Worm 2009. JAE; Ester et al. 2011. Science; Lotze et al. 2011. TREE; Roux et al 2012.BMS

Changes in predators top-down effects and trophic cascades

Ecological consequences

Scheffer et al. 2001. Nature; Rockström et al . 2009. Nature

Biodiversity and productivity, stability and resilience

Resistance, Reversibility, RecoveryRegime change, Alternative states

Ecological consequences

SOS: Safe Operating Space

Ocean Health Index

http://www.oceanhealthindex.org/

2014 (updated every year)Ranking from 0-100220 EEZ (also for high seas)

Halpern et al. 2012 Nature

Ocean Health Index

http://www.oceanhealthindex.org/

Wild Caught Fisheries

Ocean Health Index

http://www.oceanhealthindex.org/

Mariculture

Ocean Health Index

http://www.oceanhealthindex.org/

Tourism and Recreation

Ocean Health Index

http://www.oceanhealthindex.org/

Clean waters

Building an integrated view

Marine food webs

Cury et al. 2000. ICES JMS; Cury et al 2012 Science, Pikitch et al 2013 F&F

Marine species establish complex interactions in dynamic

non-linear ecological networks

The rule of 10%....

Pauly and Christensen. 1995. Science, Libralato et al. 2008. MEPS

Marine food webs

The visible and the invisible

Lynam et al 2016. PNAS

“What escapes the eye…is a much more

insidious kind of extinction: the extinction of

ecological interactions”

Daniel H. Janzen 1974

↑ SST;

retreat of sea

ice;

↑ acidification;

↑ coastal

hypoxic &

oxygen min.

zone;

↑ sea surface

level.

Physical changes in the ocean

• Physiology

• Growth

• Body sizeINDIVIDUAL

• Distribution

• Abundance

• Recruitment

POPULATION

• Species composition

• Invasion/extinction.COMMUNITY

• Productivity

• Species interaction ECOSYSTEM

Biological / ecological changes in the ocean

↑ population

↑ habitat

destruction

↑ consumption

↑ pollution

↑

eutrophication

Socio-economic changes in the ocean

3/5

Integrated view

Steenbeek 2014. IRD; Modified from Cury et al. In prep.

Modelling complexes: modularity and interoperability

Challenges

Plagányi 2007 FAO

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem models for an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries

Tro

ph

ic le

vel

Intenseexploitation

Habitat modification

Pollution & nutrient enrichment

Introduction of exotic species

Climaticchanges

Number of species & trophic biodiversity

(NETWORK, EwE, Atlantis…)

Stock assessment models (VPA, LCA)

Biogeochemical models (NPZD)

Statistical models(GLM, GAM)

Multispecies models (MSVPA)

Individual Based models

Lotka-Volterra adapted multispecies models

Size Based models(OSMOSE)

Graph design by Daniel Pauly; Artist Rachel AtanacioPlagányi 2007 FAO

Ecosystem modelling

Ecosystem modelling

Fulton et al. 2015. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B.

Schematic diagram of the broad classes of model used to consider Marine Protected Areas

Tactical

Conceptual

Strategic

Consider from gens to ecosystems (including humans)

Integrate ecological theory with empirical data

Bring together field, experiments and modelling

Statistical – mechanistic modelling

Stochastic – deterministic modelling

Different spatial and temporal scales

Tool to test hypothesis, advanced theory

Develop dynamic simulations of plausible futures

Why ecosystem modelling?

• Analize, evaluate and predict changes in marine communities and ecosystems

Piroddi et al. 2017. SR. ; Fulton et al. 2015. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

Ecosystem modelling

Western Mediterranean Sea

Counterfactuals

Piroddi et al. 2017. Scientific Reports

• Historical changes in the Mediterranean marine food web

Meaningful indicators

Sensitivity, specificity and responsiveness

Ind

icat

or

Pressure

Shannon et al. 2014. MEPS; Fu et al. 2015. JMS; Coll et al. 2016. ECOIND; Sin et al. submitted. ECOIND.

Fmsy multiplier

Stan

dar

diz

edin

dic

ato

r

Model-based HTL simulations

Meaningful indicators

Ecopath Ecosim Ecospace

GES descriptors Assessment criteria Indicators Static Temporal Spatio-temporal

Species distribution Distributional range/pattern

Population size (1) abundance and/or (2) biomass

Population condition(1) body size; (2) age class structure; (3) sex ratio; (4)

fecundity rates; (5) survival/mortality rates; (6) other

Habitat distribution Distributional range/pattern

Condition of the typical (1) species and (2) communities

Relative (1) abundance and/or (2) biomass

Composition of ecosystem components: (1) habitats and (2)

speciesRelative proportions of ecosystem components: (1)

habitats and (2) species

Interactions between structural components

Services provided

Productivity (production per unit

biomass) of key species or trophic groups

Performance of (1) key predator species determined from

their productivity; (2) other trophic group

Proportion of selected species at the top

of food webs(1) Large fish (by weight); (2) other species

Abundance/distribution of key trophic

groups/species

(1) groups with fast turnover rates; (2) groups/species that

are targeted by human activities or that are indirectly

affected by them; (3) habitat-defining groups/species; (4)

groups/species at the top of the food web; (5) long-

distance anadromous and catadromous migrating species;

(6) groups/species that are tightly linked to specific

groups/species at another trophic level

(1) type; (2) abundance; (3) biomass; (4) areal extent

Extent of seabed significantly affect by human activities for

the different substrate types

Presence of particularly sensitive and/or tolerant species

(1) species diversity and (2) richness, (3) proportion of

opportunistic to sensitive species

Proportion of (1) biomass or (2) number of individuals in

the macrobenthos above some specified length/size

2. MSFD indicators

Habitat condition

Ecosystem structure

Ecosystem processes & functions

Substrate characteristics - physical

damage

Condition of benthic community

1. Biological Diversity

4. Food webs

6. Sea floor integrity

MSFD indicators

Meaningful indicators

Towards future scenarios

Total Caught Fish Biomass for 1990-

1999

Net Primary Production change

from 1990s to 2090s

Christensen et al. 2015. GEB; Tittensor et al. 2017. Geosci. Model. Dev. Discuss.; Lotze et al. Submitted. Science

Integrated view

Evolution from conventional fisheries and aquaculture management to cross-sectoral integrated approaches

FAO SOFIA 2016

Integrated view

FAO SOFIA 2016

Need to integrate different ecological &economic processes

Consider bottom-up and top-down dynamics together

Adaptation, evolution and behaviour

Functional diversity, diverse interactions

Direction and strength of the interactions

Cumulative effects

Spatial-temporal data in high resolution

Uncertainty and error (data, processes)

Socio-economic future scenarios

(…)

Challenges

Steenbeek et al. 2013. Ecological Modelling 263, 139-151.

Reconcile the use and conservation of marine ecosystems

Biodiversity Ecosystem services Socio-economic value

New vision for society

“The most critical task to which humankind is faced with is the creation of a shared vision of a sustainable and desirable society, which could produce a permanent prosperity, knowing the biophysical constraints of the real world, in such a way that it would be just and fair for all humankind, other species and future generations”

Pikitch et al 2004 Science, Costanza 2000 Ecology and Society

Google imagesPikitch et al 2004 Science

Urgent societal need

From gens to ecosystems: large potential of the ocean

Ecological complexity: everything is connected

Cumulative impacts are real and accelerating

Impacts on ecosystem services and socio-economics

Need for integrated approaches of socio-ecological systems

Emerging tools to consider ecosystem complexity

Key contributors to management and policy needs

analyse, evaluate, predict, indicators, scenarios

Only understanding the status and trends of marine resources within an ecosystem context we can property design sustainable marine activities to fulfil future human seafood (marine resources) demands

Marta Collmcoll@icm.csic.es

Thank you!

https://martacoll.sciencemcoll@icm.csic.es

http://youtube.com/globaloceanmodeling

Visualize

The Unnatural History

of the Sea by Callum

Roberts

The Empty Ocean

by Richard Ellis

The End of the Line: How Overfishing Is

Changing the World and What We Eat

by Charles Clover Une mer sans

poissons (Broché)

by Philippe Cury and

Yves Miserey

Learn more…