prof. dr. pavel kabat - iiasa · prof. dr. pavel kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at director general and chief...

Water Challenge for 21st Century: at a Crossroads ??

Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at

Director General and Chief Executive Officer

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Austria

Professor of Earth System Science

Wageningen University, the Netherlands

One Blue Planet…..

glaciers, snow & permafrost 1.72%

ground water 0.75%

lakes, swamps & rivers 0.1%

Oceans 97.5%

In 21stC:

• Is past guide to future – ‘Stationarity’?

• Can water information remain ‘Secret’?

• Is fresh water ‘Sovereign’?

• Is water fixed asset, or ‘flux’?

USG

S

Most Important Focus of World Leaders

Water Crisis…?

…there is some urgency to deal with the

problems However not all noses are in the same direction

yet…

And perceptions of risks and urgency may differ

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Wat

er U

se in

km

^3 p

er y

ear

AgricultureIndustryHouseholdsReservoiresTotal

Worldwide Water Use by Sector

Worldwide Water Use by Region

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

EuropeNorth AmericaAfricaAsiaSouth AmericaAustralia& Pacific

The current situation

1 billion people without access to safe drinking water

1.4 billion people in watersheds with < 1000m3/capita/year

2.4 billion people with poor sanitation

• Population still growing, adding 2 billion more by 2050

• Food production requirements potentially 70% greater by 2050

• 20% of the world’s population has no access to electricity

– Industrial and energy water uses exceed agriculture in high-income

countries.

• Ecosystems?

Water: Global Challenges Increasing and Competing Demands

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1900 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2010 2025

Reservoirs

Municipal Use

Industrial Use

Agricultural Use

Water Security: local risks…..

Destructive • Flood

• India/Bangladesh: 2007 monsoon 75m

• Pakistan: 2010 20m; 2011/12

• Brisbane/Australia, Thailand: 2011

• Drought • Horn of Africa 2010-11

• Syria 2006-11

• Russia 2010 Abstract: ‘…investigate ….irrigating crops in arid

environments with CO2 rather than water…’

Productive

• WSS: 800m without improved

water, 2.6bn without

sanitation; future cities?

• Food: 1bn malnutrition 30m

child deaths/yr • Power: renewable HEP unexploited

Water Security: ‘international’ waters risks…..

• growing pressures – China: 17 neighbours,

110 rivers & lakes – Africa 2050: 2.5bn people,

60 international basins, increasing ‘complexity’

• limited knowledge, capacity, uncertainty misperception, tension, fear – Eg GBM, Mekong, Nile,

Euphrates

• ‘Northern’ science adequacy? – GCMs – economic models

塔里木

河

印度

河 珠

江

绥芬河 鸭

绿江

图们江

黑龙江

雅怒藏布江－

布拉马普特拉河

在全球个大洲中，亚洲国际河流分布最为集中，其国际河流面积占了亚洲陆地面积的65%

Bangladesh

© Google Earth

Ganges

Brahmaputra

Meghna

GBM BASINS The GBM Basins drain 1.72 Mi

km2 area

93% of the area outside

Bangladesh

75-80% of flow in 5 months of

monsoon

0 SLR

32 cm SLR

88 cm SLR

Impact of SLR on Salinity Intrusion

Hiron Point

9 km

90 km

Mongla

Khulna

Movement of 5 ppt Salinity line

Source: IWM

Water Security: global spillover risks

• Local water shocks global risks to business & economies – eg Thai floods: $45bn

• Local water shocks global

political risks – eg Syria drought, Russia

drought, Pakistan flood

• Transboundary waters international political risks – South Asia rivers, SARCC trade – Mekong, China – Tigris-Euphrates

Water security in changing ‘climates’..

• but crisis now for 3 billion people… adaptation now is key to future

• mitigation mostly about energy; adaptation mostly about water

3. Water Security: big policy

questions & science challenges

• Closing divided world gap? leapfrogs, game-changers

• Chasing water security in changing ‘climates’? Innovation 3 ‘INs’: • Information (GPG)

• Institutions

• Infrastructure

• Resolving 21stC $trillion challenges? • ensuring water services, food & energy for 9-11bn (7-8bn in cities)

• managing (increasing) water-related shocks & spillovers

• Sustaining our one Blue Planet? • Conserving <1% liquid & fresh (0.1% surface, liquid, fresh)

• Understanding/managing risks of 4o future on water flux??

Over-reliance on groundwater:

Total groundwater withdrawal (all sectors)

in % of total (surface and ground) water withdrawals

Global total groundwater withdrawal: 1522 km3/yr from total 4331 km3/yr

fg_tot = 35%

Is the hydrological cycle

changing…?

What should be changing ?

• Precipitation?

• Evaporation?

• Runoff?

• Storage?

Smoothed annual anomalies for precipitation (%) over land from 1900 to 2005; other regions are dominated by variability.

Land precipitation is changing significantly over broad areas

Increases

Decreases

What should be changing ?

• Precipitation?

• Evaporation?

• Runoff?

• Storage?

1950

Analysis by

Munich Re

Data:

U.N.

Population

Division

World Cities exceeding 5 million residents

2015

Analysis by Munich

Re

Data:

U.N. Population

Division

World Cities exceeding 5 million residents

Runoff

Discharge Precipitation

urbanized area

rural area

Time

Vulnerability projections

What should be changing ?

• Precipitation?

• Evaporation?

• Runoff?

• Storage?

Global Reservoir Database Location (lat./lon.), Storage capacity, Area of water surface,

Purpose of dam, Year of construction, …

13,382dams,

Visual courtesy of Kuni Takeuchi

How to make a real progress in

addressing water –as one of the

most pressing issues of our

sustainable future ?

Trans-sectoral and multi-

disciplinary systems thinking

in water…..

“nexus approach”

“systems approach”

IPCC 4AR WG II

ALL WATER RELATED

(WATER DEPENDENT)

SECTORS

Water - Energy – Environment – Health

Nexus

In the U.S. and Europe, 91% and 78% electricity is

currently produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and

fossil fueled) power plants, which require water

resources for cooling.

We found a summer average decrease in capacity of

power plants with 6.3-19% in Europe and 4.4-16% in

the Southeastern U.S. depending on cooling system

type and climate scenario for 2031-2060.

V.d. Vliet, Kabat et al, 2012, Nature Climate Change

Projected future changes in river

discharge Future period 2071-2100 relative to control period 1971-2000

Introduction – Modeling approach – Results – Conclusions

Future changes in discharge and water temperatures

Columbia (Anatone) Rhine (Koblenz) Mekong (Chiang Saen)

Wat

er t

emper

ature

(°C

) 25°C – WHO and water quality standard

21°C - salmon

tolerance

temperature 23°C – cooling

water limit

Introduction – Modeling approach – Results – Conclusions

Water – Climate – Poverty – Equity

Nexus

Kenya: extreme rainfall variability around mean

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

Years

Real

GD

P g

ro

wth

(%

)

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Varia

bil

ity i

n R

ain

fall

(M

ete

r)

Real GDP grow th (%)

Variability in Rainfall (Meter)

Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

rainfall affects growth….

the case of Zimbabwe

43 746

1,287 1,406

2,486 3,255

4,729

6,150

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Eth

iop

ia

So

uth

Afr

ica

Th

aila

nd

La

os

Ch

ina

Bra

zil

Au

str

alia

No

rth

Am

erica

Water storage per person (m3)

Water – Climate - Poverty – Equity - Nexus

Infrastructure gap in water storage

Country Additional

Storage needed

per person

(m3)

Storage

investments

required per

person

(US$)

Storage

Investments

Required

(US$ Billion)

Period needed at 5%

current GDP

investment per year

(no pop. inc.)

(Years)

Lesotho 751 939 1.7 44

Namibia 542 678 1.3 8

Nigeria 402 503 67.3 32

Ethiopia 555 694 46.2 144

Kenya 307 384 12.1 24

Tanzania 610 763 27.4 60

Uganda 511 639 17.9 58

Burkina Faso 152 190 2.5 22

Senegal 683 854 9.9 40

Algeria 239 299 9.8 4

Morocco 128 160 5.1 4

The cost of water security

Water: Management Challenges • Water management must intensify.

• Managing the water sector alone is no longer enough

– Water integrates across scales and sectors, which all use and

influence increasingly scarce water resources.

• Water management is risk based, but how does risk change?

– Large uncertainties

• Data

• Scenarios

• Models

– No stationarity

• More robust,

flexible solutions

required

Adaptation (autonomous)

Adaptation (with

investments)

x1

Climate parameter (e.g. rainfall)

Fre

qu

ency

Extremen Extremen

Drought risk

Flood risk

“Acceptable risk”

“Acceptable risk”

Adaptation (autonomous)

Adapation (with investments)

x1

Climate parameter (e.g.rainfall)

Fre

qu

ency

P1 P2

x2

Climate Change

“Acceptable

risk”

Water Futures & Solutions WFaS Supporting Innovative Solutions through

Integrative Water Futures Analysis

• 2013 start-up with IIASA venture capital

• 1st phase: existing tools & datasets fast-track results

4. WFaS Research Question

What water-related policies & practices can be

implemented now that will be robust at

improving human well-being through water

security across a wide range of possible

futures & associated uncertainties?

WFaS Coalition Building

Governing Board

WaterFutures4

the World

Sector Actors

Group

Project Team

Secretariat

Pro

ject Directo

r

External experts

Scenario Focus

Group

Science

Coalition Stakeholder

Coalition

Sponsor

Coalition

Three major coalitions Organized into the following groups

Initiative includes a major stakeholder consultation component, to inform and guide the science but also to test and refine policy and business outcomes;

WFaS Coalition Building

Science

Coalition Stakeholder

Coalition

Sponsor

Coalition

Three major coalitions

Sample of Institutions Involved Institute Country

CEH UK

CESR/Kassel Germany

CUNY USA

CSIRO Australia

IFPRI USA

JRC Italy

MIT USA

NIES Japan

NIH/IRMA/CWRDM India

NVE Norway

Oxford UK

PBL Netherlands

PIK Germany

Utrecht Univ. Netherlands

Wageningen Netherlands

WRC South Africa

WFaS Coalition Building

ensuring consistency & usefulness of outputs

Three major coalitions

Sample of SFG member institutions Institute Country

Bibliotheca Alexandrina Egypt

Climate Grp Greater

China

China

Conagua Mexico

CSIRO Australia

Federal Secretary Pakistan

Gen. Council of Ag. Dev. Morocco

ICID China

Irrigation Dept. Sri Lanka

IUCN Pakistan

IWA

LIGHT Brazil

Nat’l Planning Comm. South Africa

OSTP USA

Planning Commission India

UNESCO

WWFJ Bangladesh

Science

Coalition Stakeholder

Coalition

Sponsor

Coalition

VISION…..

If one does not know

to which port one is

sailing, no wind is

favorable

Seneca (c. 4 BC-AD 65)

Photo: David McGrath

Water challenge: not a threat but opportunities….

(innovation, business, economy, social innovations)

Thank you and welcome soon at

IIASA...! www.iiasa.ac.at