rice outlook slide show u.s. and world, august 10, 2017 · rice outlook slide show u.s. and world...

Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor – Economics

Department of Agricultural Economics and AgribusinessDivision of Agriculture

Cooperative Extension ServiceUniversity of Arkansas System

501.671.2195 – recoats@uark.edu

Rice Outlook Slide ShowU.S. and WorldAugust 10, 2017

World RiceUSDA Supply and Demand Estimates

Slide ShowAugust 10, 2017

World Rice Area Harvested 1988/89-2017/1814

145.3 147.3

148.3 150.2 151.7 153.3 15

147.7 149.5 151.4 15

155.8 15

8.2 160.1

158.7 16

160.0 161.8

17‐Jun

17‐Aug

17‐O

17‐Dec

17‐Feb

17‐Apr

Million of Hectares

Source: USDA

• 2017/18 world rice acreage at 161.8 million hectares slightly below last month’s 161.9, the highest on record

World Rice Yield (Rough) 1988/89-2017/183.3 3.

3.5 3.6

3.6 3.7

3.7 3.8

3.8 3.9

3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2

4.2 4.

4.4 4.5

17‐Jun

17‐Aug

17‐O

17‐Dec

17‐Feb

17‐Apr

Metric Tons

Source: USDA

• World rice yield at 4.4 metric tons per hectare, below 2016/17 period’s 4.5, but consistent with previous 6 periods

World Rice Rough Production 1988/89-2017/1849

0.8 510.3

547.3 563.8

587.0 608.8

563.0 585.4

596.4 62

625.0 643.6 66

655.2 671.5 69

703.4 721.7

17‐Jun

17‐Aug

17‐O

17‐Dec

17‐Feb

17‐Apr

Million of Metric Tons

Source: USDA 8

• World rice rough production at 719.9 million metric tons is 1.8 million metric tons below 2016/17 and the 2nd highest on record

World Rice Milled Production 1988/89-2017/1833

394.9 409.3

378.2 392.5

400.8 417.9

433.6 449.9

450.0 467.4

17‐Jun

17‐Aug

17‐O

17‐Dec

17‐Feb

17‐Apr

Source: USDA 9

• World rice milled production is the 2nd highest on record at 482.6 million metric tons

World Rice Trade Year Exports Calendar 1988/89-2017/1814

.3 14.4

14.9 16

.8 24.3

27.3 28

.4 31.8

40.443

.3 43.4

47.519

17‐Jun

17‐Aug

17‐O

17‐Dec

17‐Feb

17‐Apr

Source: USDA 10

• World trade at 43.9 million metric tons is the 3nd highest on record, which in-part reflects global uncertainties

World Rice Total Use 1988/89-2017/1832

388.6 400.2

395.6 41

445.2 460.8

465.2 478.2

17‐Jun

17‐Aug

17‐O

17‐Dec

17‐Feb

17‐Apr

Source: USDA 11

World rice total use at 479.1 million metric tons is the 2nd highest on record only exceeded by the previous marketing periods 480.3 million tons

World Rice ProductionCountry or

Region2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from July 12

Change from 2016/17

Million Tons

August 10, 2017

World 483.9 482.6 -1.07 -1.3United States 7.1 5.9 -0.15 -1.2

Foreign 476.8 476.7 -0.92 -0.1Argentina 0.9 0.9 -- 0.0Brazil 8.4 8.0 -- -0.4Egypt 4.8 4.0 -- -0.8Bangladesh 34.6 34.2 -0.52 -0.4Burma 12.4 12.3 -- -0.1Cambodia 4.9 5.0 -- 0.1China 144.9 145.0 -- 0.2India 108.0 108.0 -- --Indonesia 37.2 37.0 -- -0.1Japan 7.8 7.6 -- -0.2Sri Lanka 2.3 2.9 -0.40 0.6Pakistan 6.8 6.9 -- 0.1Philippines 11.5 11.2 -- -0.3Thailand 19.2 20.4 -- 1.2Vietnam 28.0 28.5 -- 0.5

-- No change

World Rice Supply and Use2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from July 12

Change from 2016/17

Million Tons, milled

August 10, 2017

Beginning stocks 115.8 119.4 0.90 3.6Production 483.9 482.6 -1.07 -1.3Total Supply 599.7 602.0 -0.18 2.3Total use 480.3 479.1 -0.57 -1.3

Trade 43.1 43.7 0.50 0.6Ending Stocks 119.4 122.9 0.40 3.5

U.S. Long-Grain RiceUSDA Supply and Demand Estimates

The long grain rice season-average farm price range is $11.50 - $12.50 per cwt or $5.18 - $5.63 per bus

U.S. Long Grain Rice Planted Acres 1972/73 – 2017/18

0 1,38

000 2,21

0 2,50

0 2,40

000 2,

000 2,58

000 2,

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Source: USDA 20

• 2017 long grain rice planted acres estimated at 1,909,000 acres 22% below 2016

• 5 year average 2,044,400 acres• 10 year average 2,150,600 acres• 15 year average 2,229,267 acres

U.S. Long Grain Rice Beginning Stocks 1982/83 – 2017/1817

.5 13.0

14.1 15

.1 20.0 23

6082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

Million hundredweight

• 2017/18 long grain rice beginning stocks at 31.3 million cwt.• Previous 5 year average was 22 million cwt. • Previous 10 year average was 24 million cwt.

U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/83 – 2017/1893

.0 100.

3.6 12

3 151.

0.4 177.

2 153.

20082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

• 2017/18 long grain rice production is estimated at 132.4 million cwt• 20.5% below 2016/17• 5 year average 148 million cwt• 10 year average 149 million cwt

U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/83 – 2017/1811

0.1 148.

9 146.

5 162.

2 173.

5 191.

25082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

• 2017/18 long grain rice total supply is estimated at 184.7 million cwt. • 12-percent below 2016/17 • 5 year average 190 million cwt.• 10 year average 191 million cwt.

U.S. Long Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 1982/83 – 2017/1838

.5 34.1

48.8 51

.2 56.8

55.0 58

.4 59.6

78.9 83

.4 84.7 87

.9 93.4

12082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

2017/18 long grain rice domestic and residual use is estimated at 90 million cwt, 9th largest on record5 year average 95 million cwt. 10 year average 94.5 million cwt.

Source: USDA

U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/83 – 2017/1847

.7 83.8

74.3 78

.9 78.0

12082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

• 2017/18 long grain rice total exports is estimated at 77 million cwt, • 1 million cwt. below last year• 5 year average 72• 10 year average 73

U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Use 1982/83 – 2017/1885

4 124.

7 132.

8.2 15

5 179.

20082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

• 2017/18 long grain rice total use is estimated at 167 million cwt.• 11 million cwt below 2016/17 • 5 year average 166.7 million cwt. • 10 year average 167 million cwt.

U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83 – 2017/1825

.5 13.0

14.1 15

.0 20.1

18.7 19

6082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

• 2017/18 long grain rice ending stocks are estimated at 17.7 million cwt.• 43.5-percent below 2016/17, 2nd lowest in the previous 13 marketing

periods• 5 year average 23 million cwt. • 10 year average 24 million cwt.

U.S. Medium & Short-Grain RiceUSDA Supply and Demand Estimates

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Beginning Stocks 1982/83 – 2017/1830

.7 26.2

11.7 12

.4 13.8

9.4 10

.2 13.3

20.2 20

5082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Production 1982/83 – 2017/18

34.5 36

.3 48.3 50

.2 51.6 53

.7 47.5

55.7 58

.1 59.6

57.7 59

8082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/83 – 2017/1890

.8 63.5

60.5 62

.4 64.9

71.2 75

.7 73.3

59.6 63

.1 68.9

72.9 76

10082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 1982/83 – 2017/18 24

.2 26.0 27

.9 27.7

38.6 39

.6 41.8

32.4 34

.6 36.1

28.3 30

.3 32.0

5082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/83 – 2017/18 21

.9 16.3

9.8 10

.7 26.4

34.1 34.6

30.8 31.4

34.0 35

4082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Use 1982/83 – 2017/1846

.8 44.0

56.4 59

.0 65.0

8082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83 – 2017/1844

.7 12.9

12.4 13

4 10.0

12.2 13

.2 20.9

5082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: USDA

U.S. All RiceSupply and Demand Estimates

U.S. All Rice Planted Acres 1950/51 – 2017/181,

000 2,

0 2,83

0 3,17

0 3,12

000 3,33

0 3,34

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,00050 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 17

Million acres

U.S. All Rice Yield 1950/51 – 2017/182,

1 3,72

318 4,61

3 4,81

8 4,95

4 5,41

0 5,96

621 6,

6 6,28

670 6,98

636 6,89

8 7,21

725 7,

067 7,

237 7,51

9,00050 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 17

Pounds per acre

U.S. All Rice Beginning Stocks 1970/71 – 2017/18 16

.4 18.6

5.1 7.

.9 40.5

27.4 31

.6 27.4

25.0 27

.5 28.5

46.5 48

9070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

U.S. All Rice Production 1970/71 – 2017/1883

.4 92.8

4 128.

1.9 14

9.4 17

1.6 18

7 219.

9 199.

30070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

U.S. All Rice Imports 1970/71 – 2017/181.

0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.

6 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.

8 4.4 4.8 5.

3 6.2 6.

10.1 10

.3 19.4

23.3 24

3070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

U.S. All Rice Total Supply 1970/71 – 2017/1810

0.2 13

5.5 15

8 160.

2.1 18

7.3 20

1.8 213.

4.0 195.

9.3 21

7.2 219.

3.0 23

4 269.

35070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

U.S. All Rice Total Domestic and Residual Use 1970/71 – 2017/1836

.2 40.6 43

.1 46.4

53.4 55.3

64.2 68

.9 60.5 65

.6 80.4 82.4

91.2 95

.6 100.

9 114.

0 121.

7.5 12

5.0 12

2 128.

0.8 11

9.0 124.

4 134.

16070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

U.S. All Rice Total Exports 1970/71 – 2017/1846

.8 75.7

68.9 70.3

86.8 88.8

3.1 10

8.8 11

0.9 10

93.3 95

7.0 11

14070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

U.S. All Rice Total Use 1970/71 – 2017/1883

.0 94.1

.6 112.

2.4 12

9 155.

2.6 16

9 173.

9 191.

0.7 21

8.0 23

0 231.

8 232.

2.0 232.

8 249.

1.7 22

7 230.

30070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

U.S. All Rice Ending Stocks 1970/71 – 2017/1818

36.9 40

.4 31.6

24.6 27

.0 27.2

27.5 28.5

29.4 30.4

9070 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

12:00 P.M.

United States Department of AgricultureNational Agricultural Statistics Service

August Crop ProductionExecutive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch

August 10, 2017

USDA-NASS8-10-17

Contents

Field Crops Fruit and Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Peaches Dry BeansSoybeans Apples Tobacco

Cotton Pears SugarbeetsWheat Grapes SugarcaneOats Cranberries Hops

Barley Summer PotatoesSorghum

Alfalfa & Other HayRice

Peanuts

USDA-NASS8-10-17

Survey Overview

Ag Yield Objective Yield

Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement

Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Soybeans, Cotton,and Winter Wheat

Sample Size 21,654 4,544

Collection Period July 29 – Aug 4 July 25 – Aug 1

August 2017 Crop Production

USDA-NASS8-10-17

Crop Unit August 2017

% Change From

Previous Estimate

% Change From

Previous Season

CornPlanted Mil Ac 90.9 NC -3.3Harvested Mil Ac 83.5 NC -3.7Yield Bu/Ac 169.5 NA -2.9Production Bil Bu 14.2 NA -6.6

9.219.76 9.43 9.92 9.50

11.811.1

13.112.4 12.3

13.814.2 13.6

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Billion BushelsCorn for Grain Production

United States

USDA-NASS8-10-17

170.0169.5

80.01987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Yield Linear (Yield)

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Bushels per AcreCorn for Grain Yield

United States

USDA-NASS8-10-17

20052006

20082007

20142015

Aug‐17

Lbs/Ear 0.370

25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500Ears Per Acre

28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500

Corn Objective Yield RegionEars Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight

Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears USDA-NASS8-10-17

USDA-NASS8-10-17

% Change From

Previous Estimate

% Change From

Previous Season

SoybeansPlanted Mil Ac 89.5 NC +7.3Harvested Mil Ac 88.7 NC +7.2Yield Bu/Ac 49.4 NA -5.2Production Bil Bu 4.38 NA +1.7

2.69 2.74 2.65 2.762.89

2.762.45

3.12 3.073.20

3.363.33

3.10 3.04

3.93 3.93

4.314.38

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Billion BushelsSoybean Production

United States

USDA-NASS8-10-17

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Bushels per AcreSoybean Yield

United States

USDA-NASS8-10-17

% Change From

Previous Estimate

% Change From

Previous Season

All CottonPlanted Mil Ac 12.1 NC +19.7Harvested Mil Ac 11.1 NA +16.3Yield Lb/Ac 892 NA +2.9Production Mil Bls 20.5 NA +19.7

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Million AcresAll Cotton Acres

United States

Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS

8-10-17

17.0 17.2

17.218.3

23.3 23.9

12.812.2

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Million BalesAll Cotton Production

United States

USDA-NASS8-10-17

892900

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Pounds perAcreAll Cotton Yield

United States

USDA-NASS8-10-17

% Change From

Previous Estimate

% Change From

Previous Season

Winter WheatHarvested Mil Ac 25.8 NC -14.8Yield Bu/Ac 50.0 +0.6 -9.6Production Bil Bu 1.29 +0.6 -23.0

Other Spring WheatHarvested Mil Ac 10.5 NC -7.1Yield Bu/Ac 38.3 -5.0 -18.9Production Mil Bu 402 -5.0 -24.8

Durum WheatHarvested Mil Ac 1.86 NC -21.4Yield Bu/Ac 27.2 -12.0 -38.2Production Mil Bu 50.5 -12.1 -51.5

All WheatProduction Bil Bu 1.74 -1.2 -24.7

USDA-NASS8-10-17

20052006 2011

20072015

20082009

20132014

2016Jun‐17

Jul‐17 Aug‐170.7000.6900.6800.6700.6600.6500.6400.6300.6200.6100.6000.5900.5800.5700.5600.5500.5400.530

38 39 40 41 42 43 44Heads Per Square Foot

45 46 47 48 49

Grams/Head

Wheat Objective Yield RegionHeads Per Square Foot vs. Implied Head Weight

Implied Head Weight = Published Yield / (Heads*1.6006)USDA-NASS

8-10-17

USDA-NASS8-10-17

% Change From

Previous Estimate

% Change From

Previous Season

Oats Mil Bu 53.7 +0.1 -17.1Barley Mil Bu 140 -1.9 -29.6Sorghum Mil Bu 369 NA -23.1Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 56.2 NA -3.6Other Hay Mil Tons 76.4 NA -0.1Rice Mil Cwt 186 NA -16.8Peanuts Bil Lbs 7.43 NA +30.7

USDA-NASS8-10-17

% Change From

Previous Estimate

% Change From

Previous Season

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 695 NA +10.5Dry Beans Mil Cwt 34.2 NA +19.2Sugarbeets Mil Tons 36.3 NA -1.5Sugarcane Mil Tons 31.8 NA -0.9Summer Potatoes Mil Cwt 20.2 NA +3.3

USDA-NASS8-10-17

% Change From

Previous Estimate

% Change From

Previous Season

Peaches Thou Tons 735 NA -7.6Apples Bil Lbs 10.4 NA -7.4Pears Thou Tons 707 NA -4.3Grapes Mil Tons 7.51 NA -2.1Hops Mil Lbs 97.6 NA +12.0Cranberries Mil Bbls 9.05 NA -6.0

USDA-NASS8-10-17

Upcoming Reports

Release Date Report Title

August 25 Cattle on Feed Rice Stocks

August 30 Agricultural Prices

August 31 Citrus Fruits

September 1 CAIR: CottonCAIR: Fats & Oils

CAIR: Grain CrushingsSeptember 12 Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

USDA-NASS8-10-17

United States Department of AgricultureNational Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov

For Questions202-720-2127800-727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov

Report of August 10, 2017

Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair

Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service

Farm Service Agency Agricultural Marketing Service

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

WASDE: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Secretary's WASDE Briefing Slides

Foreign Ag Service: World Agricultural Production

Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin

Links to the latestWASDE related publicationsOffice of the Chief Economist World

Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)

US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)

World Wheat ProductionCountry or Region

2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change fromJuly 12

Change from2016/17

Million Tons

August 10, 2017

World 755.0 743.2 5.4 -11.8United States 62.9 47.3 -0.6 -15.5

Foreign 692.1 695.9 5.9 3.7Argentina 17.5 17.5 -- 0.0Canada 31.7 26.5 -1.9 -5.2Australia 35.1 23.5 -- -11.6European Union 145.7 149.6 -0.4 3.9Turkey 17.3 19.5 -- 2.3Russia 72.5 77.5 5.5 5.0Ukraine 26.8 26.5 2.5 -0.3Kazakhstan 15.0 14.0 1.0 -1.0China 128.9 130.0 -- 1.2India 87.0 96.0 -- 9.0

Central

Southern

N. Caucasus

August 10, 2017

N. Caucasus

Southern

CentralVolga

Russia

UkraineAn active weather pattern brought beneficial spring rain to Russia’s winter wheat areas.

Winter Wheat

August 10, 2017

Central

Southern

N. Caucasus

Russia

Ukraine

Conversely, dry weather during July across southwestern Russia favored winter wheat

drydown and harvesting.

Winter Wheat

August 10, 2017

VolgaSiberia

Russia

Kazakhstan

August 10, 2017

WMO‐CPC

VolgaSiberia

Russia

Kazakhstan

The 60‐day rainfall map indicates most springwheat areas received near‐ to above‐normal rainfall since early June, ensuring favorable moisture supplies as crops progressed

through reproduction.

Spring Wheat

August 10, 2017

Siberia

Russia

Kazakhstan

The latest VHI depicts good to excellent conditions for Flowering (north) to Filling (south/east) spring wheat.

Spring Wheat

August 10, 2017

Yield(T/H

(MHa) and

Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and ProductionSource: USDA PSD Online

Harvested area Output Yield

Estimated production is increased from 72.0 to 77.5 mmt based on harvest reports from the winter‐wheat zone and

higher estimated yield in the spring‐wheat zone.

August 10, 2017

Yield(T/H

(MHa) and

Kazakhstan Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and ProductionSource: USDA PSD Online

Forecast wheat production is increased from13.0 to 14.0 mmt based on NDVI‐based yieldforecasts. Estimated area is down 7% fromlast year and yield is virtually unchanged.

August 10, 2017

Yield(T/H

andProd

Ukraine Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and ProductionSource: USDA PSD Online

Estimated production is increasedfrom 24.0 to 26.5 mmt based on

official harvest data.

August 10, 2017

Canadian Prairies - Durum production

Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba

Durum production (% of *total)

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Durum wheat crop calendar for most of CanadaPLANT

HARVESTHEAD

1 - 2 %< 1 % > 5 %2 - 3 % 3 - 5 %* 2002-2006 Average

* SOURCE: Stats CanadaAgricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017

Canadian Prairies - Spring Wheat production

Spring Wheat production (% of *total)

Spring wheat crop calendar for most of CanadaPLANT

HARVESTHEAD

1 - 2 %< 1 % > 5 %2 - 3 % 3 - 5 %* 2002-2006 Average

Canola production (% of *total)

< 1 % 1 - 2 % 2 - 3 % 3 - 5 % > 5 %

Canola crop calendar for most of CanadaPLANT

HARVESTFLOWER

Canadian Prairies - Canola production

1 - 2 %< 1 % > 5 %2 - 3 % 3 - 5 %* 2002-2006 Average

Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017

Wheat and Rapeseed fields in Southern Manitoba

August 10, 2017

Agricultural Weather Assessments

August 10, 2017World Agricultural Outlook Board

Flooded soybean field outside Ottawa,Ontario

Based on conversations with farmers and industryexperts in Canada, crops are 2‐4 weeks behindschedule. August 10, 2017

World Wheat Supply and Use2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from July 12

Change from 2016/17

Million Tons

August 10, 2017

Beginning stocks 242.9 258.6 0.5 15.7Production 755.0 743.2 5.4 -11.8Total Supply 997.9 1,001.8 5.9 3.9

Feed use 146.9 140.6 1.3 -6.2Total use 739.3 737.1 1.8 -2.2

Trade 182.3 179.9 1.5 -2.3Ending Stocks 258.6 264.7 4.1 6.1

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from July 12

Change from 2016/17

Average market price 3.89 4.40/5.20 -- 0.91-- No change

Dollars per bushel

August 10, 2017

Planted area (million acres) 50.2 45.7 -- -4.5

Harvested area (million acres) 43.9 38.1 -- -5.8Yield (bushels per acre) 52.6 45.6 -0.5 -7.0

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 976 1,184 -- 209Production 2,310 1,739 -21 -570Imports 118 150 10 32Total supply 3,403 3,074 -11 -330

Food use 949 950 -5 1Seed 61 66 -- 5Feed and residual 154 150 -- -4Domestic use 1,164 1,166 -5 2

Exports 1,055 975 -- -80Total use 2,219 2,141 -5 -78

Ending stocks 1,184 933 -6 -252Percent

Stocks to use ratio 53.4 43.6 -0.2 -9.8

World Rice ProductionCountry or

2017/18forecast

Change from July 12

Change from 2016/17

Million Tons

August 10, 2017

World 483.9 482.6 -1.07 -1.3United States 7.1 5.9 -0.15 -1.2

Foreign 476.8 476.7 -0.92 -0.1Argentina 0.9 0.9 -- 0.0Brazil 8.4 8.0 -- -0.4Egypt 4.8 4.0 -- -0.8Bangladesh 34.6 34.2 -0.52 -0.4Burma 12.4 12.3 -- -0.1Cambodia 4.9 5.0 -- 0.1China 144.9 145.0 -- 0.2India 108.0 108.0 -- --Indonesia 37.2 37.0 -- -0.1Japan 7.8 7.6 -- -0.2Sri Lanka 2.3 2.9 -0.40 0.6Pakistan 6.8 6.9 -- 0.1Philippines 11.5 11.2 -- -0.3Thailand 19.2 20.4 -- 1.2Vietnam 28.0 28.5 -- 0.5

-- No change

World Rice Supply and Use2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from July 12

Change from 2016/17

Million Tons, milled

August 10, 2017

Beginning stocks 115.8 119.4 0.90 3.6Production 483.9 482.6 -1.07 -1.3Total Supply 599.7 602.0 -0.18 2.3Total use 480.3 479.1 -0.57 -1.3

Trade 43.1 43.7 0.50 0.6Ending Stocks 119.4 122.9 0.40 3.5

U.S. Rice Supply and DemandRough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice

2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change fromJuly 12

Change from2016/17

Average market price 10.30 12.20/13.20 0.40 2.40-- No change

Dollars per cwt

August 10, 2017

Harvested area (million acres) 3.10 2.48 -- -0.62Yield (pounds per acre) 7,237 7,513 -194 276

Million cwtBeginning stocks 46.5 45.9 -0.2 -0.6Production 224.1 186.5 -4.8 -37.7Imports 23.3 24.2 -- 0.9Total supply 293.9 256.6 -5.0 -37.3

Domestic use 132.0 117.5 -2.5 -14.5Exports 116.0 109.0 -- -7.0Total use 248.0 226.5 -2.5 -21.5

Ending stocks 45.9 30.1 -2.5 -15.8Percent

August 10, 2017

World Corn Production

-- No change

Country or Region

2016/17estimate

2016/17 change from July 12

2017/18forecast

Change from 2016/17

Million TonsWorld 1,070.5 1.72 1,033.5 -3.43 -37.0United States 384.8 -- 359.5 -2.59 -25.3

Foreign 685.7 1.72 674.0 -0.83 -11.8Argentina 41.0 -- 40.0 -- -1.0Brazil 98.5 1.50 95.0 -- -3.5Mexico 27.4 -- 25.0 -- -2.4Canada 13.2 -- 13.9 -0.50 0.7European Union 61.1 0.43 60.0 -1.59 -1.1Serbia 7.6 -- 6.6 -0.40 -1.0FSU-12 47.4 -- 49.3 0.50 1.9Ukraine 28.0 -- 28.5 -- 0.5Russia 15.3 -- 16.5 0.50 1.2

South Africa 16.7 0.30 12.5 -- -4.2China 219.6 -- 215.0 -- -4.6India 26.0 -- 25.0 -- -1.0

August 10, 2017

Better rainfall during reproduction than last year.

August 10, 2017

Corn area has shown a downward trend in recent years, particularly in the Northeast, as policychanges in government support have forced farmers to switch to alternative profitable crops such as soybeans, peanuts, rice, potatoes, and silage

August 10, 2017

China Corn Area and Yield

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Yield trend

August 10, 2017

Yield (MT per hectare)Area (Million hectares)

August 10, 2017

Despite drier‐than‐normal weather overall, two occurrences of timely rain in July – coincident with tassel and silk –

boosted corn yield prospects.

August 10, 2017Planting

8.0”

6.0”

4.0”

12.0”

2.0”

10.0”

Tassel/Silk

30y Avg

GIS Crop data courtesy of SAGE/Univ Wisc.

The current VHI shows mostly good to excellent conditions for Ukraine corn as it

approaches grain fill.

Major Corn Areas

August 10, 2017

(MHa) and

Yield(T/H

(MHa) and

Ukraine Corn: Estimated Area, Yield, and ProductionSource: USDA PSD Online

Forecast production is unchanged at 28.5 mmt.

August 10, 2017

World Corn Supply and Use2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from July 12

Change from 2016/17

Million Tons

August 10, 2017

Beginning stocks 213.5 228.6 1.10 15.1Production 1,070.5 1,033.5 -3.43 -37.0Total Supply 1,284.0 1,262.1 -2.32 -21.9

Feed use 630.8 651.3 -0.84 20.5Total use 1,055.4 1,061.2 -2.38 5.8

Trade 162.4 152.0 -0.44 -10.4Ending Stocks 228.6 200.9 0.06 -27.7

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from July 12

Change from 2016/17

Average market price 3.30/3.40Dollars per bushel

2.90/3.70 -- -0.05-- No change

August 10, 2017

Harvested area (million acres) 86.7 83.5 -- -3.3Yield (bushels per acre) 174.6 169.5 -1.2 -5.1

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 1,737 2,370 -- 633Production 15,148 14,153 -102 -995Imports 55 50 -- -5Total supply 16,940 16,573 -102 -367

Feed and residual 5,425 5,450 -25 25Food, seed, and industrial 6,920 7,000 -- 80Ethanol 5,450 5,500 -- 50Domestic use 12,345 12,450 -25 105

Exports 2,225 1,850 -25 -375Total use 14,570 14,300 -50 -270

Ending stocks 2,370 2,273 Percent -52 -97

World Soybean ProductionCountry or

2017/18forecast

Change from July 12

Change from 2016/17

-- No change

Million Tons

August 10, 2017

World 351.7 347.4 2.3 -4.4United States 117.2 119.2 3.3 2.0

Foreign 234.5 228.1 -1.0 -6.4Argentina 57.8 57.0 -- -0.8Brazil 114.0 107.0 -- -7.0Paraguay 10.7 9.4 -- -1.3Canada 6.6 8.2 -0.2 1.7India 11.5 10.0 -1.5 -1.5China 12.9 14.0 -- 1.1

U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand2016/17estimate

2016/17 changefrom July 12

2017/18forecast

Change from 2016/17

Average market price 9.50 --Dollars per bushel

8.45/10.15 -0.10 -0.20-- No change

August 10, 2017

Planted area (million acres) 83.4 -- 89.5 -- 6.1

Harvested area (million acres) 82.7 -- 88.7 -- 6.0Yield (bushels per acre) 52.1 -- 49.4 1.4 -2.7

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 197 -- 370 -40 174Production 4,307 -- 4,381 121 74Imports 25 -- 25 -- 0Total supply 4,528 -- 4,777 81 248

Crush 1,890 -10 1,940 -10 50Seed and residual 118 -- 136 1 18Domestic use 2,008 -10 2,076 -9 68

Exports 2,150 50 2,225 75 75Total use 4,158 40 4,301 66 143

Ending stocks 370 -40 475 15 105Percent

Stocks to use ratio 8.9 -1.1 11.1 0.2 2.1

World Cotton ProductionCountry or Region

2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from July 12

Change from 2016/17

-- No change

Million Bales

August 10, 2017

World 106.5 117.3 1.95 10.8United States 17.2 20.5 1.55 3.4

Foreign 89.3 96.8 0.40 7.4Argentina 0.8 0.7 -- -0.1Brazil 6.8 7.0 -- 0.2Turkey 3.2 3.6 -0.20 0.4Australia 4.2 4.8 -- 0.6China 22.8 24.5 0.50 1.8India 27.0 29.0 -- 2.0Pakistan 7.7 9.2 -- 1.5Uzbekistan 3.7 3.7 -- 0.0African Franc Zone 5.0 5.2 0.09 0.2

August 10, 2017

VHI also indicates goodgrowing conditions.

August 10, 2017

China Cotton Area and Yield

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Yield trend

August 10, 2017

Area (Million hectares) Yield (MT per hectare)

World Cotton Supply and Use2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from July 12

Change from 2016/17

-- No change

Million Bales

August 10, 2017

Beginning stocks 97.2 90.0 -0.29 -7.2Production 106.5 117.3 1.95 10.8Total Supply 203.7 207.3 1.66 3.6

Consumption 113.6 117.4 0.38 3.8Trade 37.4 37.2 0.37 -0.2Ending Stocks 90.0 90.1 1.37 0.1

Addendum:

China Ending Stocks 48.4 39.3 -- -9.1

U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change fromJuly 12

Change from2016/17

Average market price 68.00Cents per pound

55.0/67.0 -- -7.00-- No change

August 10, 2017

Planted area (million acres) 10.07 12.06 -- 1.98

Harvested area (million acres) 9.51 11.05 -0.13 1.55Yield (pounds per acre) 867 892 76 25

Million balesBeginning stocks 3.80 2.80 -0.40 -1.00Imports 0.01 0.01 -- 0.00Production 17.17 20.55 1.55 3.38Total supply 20.98 23.36 1.15 2.38

Mill use 3.25 3.35 -0.05 0.10Exports 14.92 14.20 0.70 -0.72Total use 18.17 17.55 0.65 -0.62

Unaccounted 0.01 0.01 -0.01Ending stocks

Stocks/use

Percent 0.50

U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

2017/18 change Change fromfrom July 12 2016/17

1,000 short tons, raw value

August 10, 2017

Beginning Stocks 2,054 0 1,675 235 -379Production 8,848 12 8,970 232 122Beets 4,998 10 5,068 80 70Cane 3,850 2 3,902 152 52

Imports 3,353 222 3,631 73 278TRQ 1,727 148 1,707 158 -20Re-export 350 -25 200 25 -150Mexico 1,266 104 1,714 -110 448High-tier 10 -5 10 -- 0Total Supply 14,255 235 14,276 540 21

Exports 125 -- 25 -- -100Domestic deliveries 12,455 -- 12,578 -- 123

Total use 12,580 -- 12,603 -- 23Ending stocks 1,675 235 1,673

Percent540 -2

Stocks/use ratio 13.3 1.9 13.3 4.3 0.0-- No change

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

2016/17estimate

2016/17 change 2017/18from July 12 forecast

2017/18 change Change fromfrom July 12 2016/17

Thousand MT

August 10, 2017

Beginning stocks 1,037 -- 981 -87 -56Production 5,957 0 6,100 -- 143Imports 94 9 75 -- -19Total Supply 7,088 9 7,156 -87 69

Domestic use 4,858 6 4,864 6 6Exports 1,248 89 1,476 -94 228Total Use 6,106 95 6,340 -88 234

Ending stocks 981 -87 816 1 -165-- No change

August 10, 2017

U.S. Meat Production and Prices2017

forecast2017 changefrom July 12

2018forecast

2018 changefrom July 12

Change from 2017

Production Beef

26.70 0.20 Billion pounds27.36

0.29 0.66

Pork 25.81 -0.03 26.74 -- 0.93Broilers 41.49 0.01 42.28 -- 0.79Turkey 5.98 -0.08 6.18 -- 0.20Total meat 100.74 0.10 103.32 0.30 2.58

Prices Steers

120.93 -2.00 Dollars/cwt116.25

-1.75 -4.68

Broilers

48.25Cents/lb88.5

-5.8Turkey 100.4 -2.5 104.5 -2.0 4.1

-- No change

U.S. Meat TradeMillion Pounds

-- No change

August 10, 2017

2017forecast

2018forecast

Change from 2017

ExportsBeef 2,784 -32 2,860 -10 76Pork 5,753 6 5,965 -- 212Broilers 6,814 -162 7,030 -- 216Turkey 611 8 650 -- 39Mature Chickens 139 -- 145 -- 6

Total meat 16,108 -180 16,658 -10 550Imports

Beef 2,832 43 2,870 -- 38

U.S. Milk Supply and Demand2017

2018forecast

Change from2017

Billion pounds

August 10, 2017

Production 215.7 -0.6 220.3 -0.9 4.6Fat BasisImports 6.0 0.0 5.8 -0.0 -0.1Commercial use 211.9 -0.6 216.2 -1.3 4.2Exports 9.3 0.2 9.2 0.2 -0.1

Skim-solid BasisImports 6.3 0.1 6.4 0.0 0.1Commercial use 179.9 0.0 184.4 -1.1 4.5Exports 40.7 -0.5 42.1 0.2 1.4

U.S. Dairy Product Prices2017

2018forecast

Change from2017

-- No change

August 10, 2017

Product prices Dollars/pound

Cheese 1.60 0.01 1.69 0.00 0.09Butter 2.44 0.05 2.44 0.06 -0.01Nonfat dry milk 0.90 -0.02 0.94 -0.03 0.04Dry whey 0.46 -0.02 0.46 -0.03 -0.00

Class prices Dollars/cwt

Class III 16.00 -- 16.80 -0.15 0.80Class IV 15.90 0.05 16.25 -- 0.35

All milk 17.90 0.10 18.50 -- 0.60

August 10, 2017

U.S. Production Summary

-- No change

2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from 2016/17

Crops and ProductsWheat (Million bu)

2,310 -- 1,739 -21 -570

Rice (Million cwt) 224.1 -- 186.5 -4.8 -37.7Corn (Million bu) 15,148 -- 14,153 -102 -995Sorghum (Million bu) 480 -- 369 13 -111Barley (Million bu) 199 -- 140 -3 -59Oats (Million bu) 65 -- 54 0 -11Soybeans (Million bu) 4,307 -- 4,381 121 74Soybean oil (Million lbs) 21,945 -115 22,505 -115 560Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 44,361 -275 46,075 -225 1,714Cotton (Million bales) 17.17 -- 20.55 1.55 3.38Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 8,848 12 8,970 232 122

Milk (Billion lbs) 215.7 -0.6 220.3 -0.9 4.6

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef

26.70 0.20 27.36 0.29 0.66

Pork 25.81 -0.03 26.74 -- 0.93Broilers 41.49 0.01 42.28 -- 0.79Turkey 5.98 -0.08 6.18 -- 0.20Total Meat 100.74 0.10 103.32 0.30 2.58

August 10, 2017

Domestic Demand Summary

-- No change

2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from 2016/17

Crops and ProductsWheat (Million bu)

1,164 -- 1,166 -5 2

Rice (Million cwt) 132.0 0.0 117.5 -2.5 -14.5Corn (Million bu) 12,345 -- 12,450 -25 105Sorghum (Million bu) 240 -- 160 -- -80Barley (Million bu) 199 -- 188 -- -11Oats (Million bu) 156 -- 170 -- 14Soybeans (Million bu) 2,008 -10 2,076 -9 68Soybean oil (Million lbs) 19,600 -- 20,450 -- 850Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 33,050 -- 34,200 -- 1,150Cotton (Million bales) 3.25 -0.05 3.35 -0.05 0.10Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 12,455 -- 12,578 -- 123

Milk (Billion lbs, fat basis) 211.9 -0.6 216.2 -1.3 4.2

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef

26.92 0.28 27.49 0.31 0.57

Pork 21.07 -0.00 21.57 -- 0.50Broilers 34.40 0.17 34.92 -- 0.52Turkey 5.39 -0.09 5.58 -- 0.19Total meat 88.65 0.36 90.42 0.31 1.77

August 10, 2017

U.S. Export Summary

-- No change

2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from 2016/17

Crops and productsWheat (Million bu)

1,055 -- 975 -- -80

Rice (Million cwt) 116.0 -- 109.0 -- -7.0Corn (Million bu) 2,225 -- 1,850 -25 -375Sorghum (Million bu) 225 -- 210 10 -15Barley (Million bu) 4 -- 5 -- 1Soybeans (Million bu) 2,150 50 2,225 75 75Soybean oil (Million lbs) 2,400 -- 2,300 -- -100Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 11,600 -300 12,200 -200 600Cotton (Million bales) 14.92 0.42 14.20 0.70 -0.72

Meat (Million lbs)

Beef 2,784 -32 2,860 -10 76Pork 5,753 6 5,965 -- 212Broilers 6,814 -162 7,030 -- 216Turkey 611 8 650 -- 39Mature Chickens 139 -- 145 -- 6Total meat 16,108 -180 16,658 -10 550

Price Summary2016/17estimate

2017/18forecast

Change from 2016/17

Crops and products

-- No change

August 10, 2017

Wheat ($/bu) 3.89 -- 4.80 -- 0.91Rice ($/cwt) 10.30 -0.20 12.70 0.40 2.40Corn ($/bu) 3.35 -- 3.30 -- -0.05Soybeans ($/bu) 9.50 -- 9.30 -0.10 -0.20Soybean oil (¢/lb) 32.50 0.50 33.00 1.00 0.50Soybean meal ($/s.t.) 320.00 -- 315.00 -5.00 -5.00Cotton (¢/lb) 68.00 -- 61.00 -- -7.00

LivestockSteers ($/cwt) 120.93 -2.00 116.25 -1.75 -4.68Hogs ($/cwt) 51.11 2.00 48.25 0.75 -2.86Broilers (¢/lb) 94.3 1.0 88.5 -- -5.8Turkeys (¢/lb) 100.4 -2.5 104.5 -2.0 4.1

Dairy productsCheese 1.60 0.01 1.69 0.00 0.09Butter 2.44 0.05 2.44 0.06 -0.01Nonfat dry milk 0.90 -0.02 0.94 -0.03 0.04Dry whey 0.46 -0.02 0.46 -0.03 0.00

Milk classesClass III ($/cwt) 16.00 -- 16.80 -0.15 0.80Class IV ($/cwt) 15.90 0.05 16.25 -- 0.35All milk ($/cwt) 17.90 0.10 18.50 -- 0.60

rice outlook slide show u.s. and world, august 10, 2017 · rice outlook slide show u.s. and world...

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