stories to watch 2012
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MANISH BAPNA, INTERIM PRESIDENTJANUARY 10, 2012
The Prediction Game
How Will 2011 Be Remembered?
How Will 2011 Be Remembered?
http://www.inquisitr.com/168221/occupy-wall-street-stomps-on-stimulus/
1. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year
2. Transitions in China
3. An Overlooked Breadbasket
4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?
5. A Bravo for Rio?
Stories to Watch 2012
1. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year
2. Transitions in China
3. An Overlooked Breadbasket
4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?
5. A Bravo for Rio?
Stories to Watch 2012
Pres. Obama calls for clean energy standards
Offshore drilling expanded
EPA ozone rules delayed
National vehicle rules established
EPA Mercury &Air Toxics Rules
U.S. Climate Policy - 2011
CA Air Resources Board adopts final cap-and-trade regulation
Jan. Mar. Jul.
Keystone decision delayed
Sec. Clinton urges EUto change approach to curbing aviation emissions
Nov.Oct. Dec.
Source: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States Using Existing Federal Authorities and State Action, World Resources Institute, 2010
U.S. GHG Emissions Target for 2020
Power Plant Performance Standards
Efficiency Standards for Appliances and Equipment
Transportation Standards for Light-Duty Vehicles MY 2017-2025
Refinery Performance Standards
Natural Gas System Regulations for VOCs, SO2, & Toxics
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Administration’s Rulemaking Report Card
YES NO
CA & RGGI States Represent Sizable Economies
• CA: GHG cap-and-trade program in 2013 will cover 85% of emissions by 2015
• RGGI: GHG cap-and-trade program for electricity covers more than 20% of region's total emissions
California13.3%
U.S. (balance)67.7%
RGGI (10 states)19%
Percent of U.S. GDP 2009
Source: US Census
“I will clean up the planet, I will make global warming a priority.”
Sen. John McCain, Jan. 2008
“Let us resolve that all nations--including my own--will act with seriousness of purpose, and reduce the carbon we send into our atmosphere.”
Candidate Barack Obama, July 2008
Yesterday & Today
Yesterday & Today
“I do support capping carbon emissions.”
Gov. Sarah PalinOctober 2008, Vice Presidential Debate
Campaign 2012
1. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year
2. Transitions in China
3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?
4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?
5. A Bravo for Rio?
Stories to Watch 2012
2. http://www.wantchinatimes.com/whoswho-cnt.aspx?id=20101208000064&cid=20
Li KeqiangXi Jinping
3. http://tilt.ft.com/#!posts/2011-08/26926/chinas-changing-of-guard
1. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/15/xin_4720305151238906199427.jpg
China’s President, Premier and Politburo
Clean Energy Trade War?
US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, “Country Analysis Brief: China”http://205.254.135.24/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH
Total Energy Consumption (Btu) in China, 2008
Coal Consumption in China
“It’s very clear in China’s Five-Year Plan that it’s our objective to gradually establish a national system on carbon emissions trading.”
- Su Wei
Photo by Miguel Villagran/Getty Images Europe
Su WeiDirector General for Climate ChangeNational Development and Reform Commission
China’s Provincial CO2 Trading Systems
CaliforniaIndia
EU
China Provinces
Australia
New Zealand
RGGI States
CO2 & Efficiency Trading Around the World
1. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year
2. Transitions in China
3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?
4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?
5. A Bravo for Rio?
Stories to Watch 2012
Accelerating Global Food Demand
Annual Average Global Yield Rates
Source: Alston, Beddow and Pardey (2009) using FAO (2008) and USDA FAS (2008)
Crop 1961-1990
1990-2007
% Difference
Wheat 2.9 0.5 - 83%
Maize 2.2 1.8 - 18%
Rice 2.2 0.9 - 59%
Soya 1.8 1.1 - 39%
Degraded Lands: An Opportunity?
Indonesia
Brazil
Restoration Stories in 2012
Indonesia
http://www.globalforestwatch.org/english/indonesia/forests.htm
http://indepthafrica.com/global-issues/dilma-rousseff-declares-the-winner-of-brazil-election/
Brazil
Consumer Goods Forum
Consumers
1. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year
2. Transitions in China
3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?
4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?
5. A Bravo for Rio?
Stories to Watch 2012
Source:EIA, IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Global Energy Investment for Power Generation
IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources-SPM 2011, pg 10.
IPCC Global Review of Renewable Energy
NREL, Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States, 2009, Figure 8.
Residential Solar Power by 2015 (U.S.)
China: Wind energy competitive in two years and solar PV by 2015.
Germany: Wind electricity spot prices cheaper than fossil fuels some days in 2011.
FL, NC, NJ, Southwest: Solar PV close to competitive with fossil fuels.
Italy, Spain, Greece & Portugal: Solar PV competitive within two years.
Island Nations, Japan & Hawaii: Solar PV competitive within two years.
And competitively priced renewables are not just taking off in the U.S…
India: Solar PV competitive with on-grid diesel generation.
Brazil: In 2011, Wind energy auctions undercut price of natural gas.
The Shale Gas Boom
Time Magazine, April 2011
Source: Brookings
U.S. Clean Energy Policy & Incentives
1. U.S. Climate & Energy in an Election Year
2. Transitions in China
3. An Overlooked Breadbasket?
4. Renewable Energy: Boom or Bust?
5. A Bravo for Rio?
Stories to Watch 2012
Rio 1992
Johannesburg 2002
Stockholm 1972
Rio 2012
Earth Summits 1972-2012
Institutional Framework for Sustainable Development
Green Economy
Rio Earth Summit 2012
• Green economy roadmap, UNEO
• No new institutions, engage private sector and social media
• Late engagement, defensive posture
• Keep “common but differentiated responsibilities”
• Opportunity to shine, strong involvement of Rio city
Rio: What are they saying?
What to Look for at Rio+20
Energy Access GovernanceWaterFood Security
© ICRC
http://www.nexusafrica.ca/africa-in-2011-getting-out-the-vote-the-call/
http://vivekitam.wordpress.com/2011/01/14/a-paperback-analysis-of-nacs-food-security-proposal-part-2/http://www.new-ventures.org/content/scaling-clean-energy-access-india-workshop
MANISH BAPNA, INTERIM PRESIDENT
JANUARY 10, 2012
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