synthesizing and integrating regional climate projections into a local government framework:...

Synthesizing and Integrating Regional Climate Projections into a Local Government

Framework:

CIMPACT-DST

Spencer Reeder – Cascadia Consulting Group Sascha Peterson – Adaptation International

Hilary Papendick – City of Seattle / California Coastal CommissionAmy Snover – Climate Impacts Group

The Various Roles of Decision Support Tools

National Academy of Sciences: America’s Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (2010)

Classification of Decision Support Tools

– Guidebooks (CRiSTAL, CIG/ICLEI/King County, StormSmart Coasts)

– Climate impact maps & scenario visualization tools (CIG maps, NOAA hazard assessment tool & SLR visualizer, OSU ENVISION, COAST, NatureServe VISTA)

– Databases/Clearinghouses (Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange, WeAdapt)

– Engagement strategies & methodologies (Coast-Smart Communities, Climate Witness, Scenario Planning)

Simplifying the Process

CIMPACT-DST

What Most Decision Makers Want:

Upper Extreme

Best Estimate

Lower Extreme

Impact A

Year X, Y, Z

Key Challenge

What Science Often Produces:

Upper

Best

Lower

Impact A

Model Analysis 1

Empirical Analysis 7

Model Analysis 4

Upper

Best

Lower

Impact A

Upper

Best

Lower

Impact A

Projected Increases in Annual Temperature

2020s

2040s

2080s

°C

Compared with 1970-1999 average

Climate Impacts Group 2009, Ch. 1

+2.0ºF (1.1-3.4ºF)

+3.2ºF (1.6-5.2ºF)

+5.3ºF (2.8-9.7ºF)

°F

Choice of emissions scenario matters more after

2040s

Project Lifespan Parameter

Fast method for updating global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissionsG Myhre, K Alterskjær, and D Lowe Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009)

Global Emissions &SRES Projections

Considering Alternate Approaches: Benefits vs. Limitations of formal Scenario

Planning ApproachMajor Benefits:

• Consistent with conventional risk management approaches• Allows for an organization to explicitly “test decisions under a

variety of plausible futures.” (D. Weeks et al, Parks Science, Aug. 2011)

Major Limitations:

• Requires “availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information” (S. Dessai et al, Global Environmental Change, 2005)

• Requires significant investment of time by staff

Integrating Key Factors in the CIMPACT-DST

Climate Observations & Projections

Spatial InformationState & Federal RegulationsLocal Gov’t Policies

Best Practices

Functional Overview

Primary Impacts Temperature Sea Level Rise Precipitation

Secondary Impacts Thermal Loads/Stress Erosion/Landslides Flooding Etc. ….

Type Bridge Building (new/remodel) Drainage System Electricity Distribution Park/Open Space Right-of-Way

Lifespan Up to 2030 Up to 2050 Up to 2090 Beyond 2090

Hazard Zone Flood Zone Landslide Sea Level Rise

Project Factors Climate Factors

Outputs Overview Impact Range Guidance CIMPACT-DST

Tool OverviewMenu Title Options

PROJECT TYPE • Road• Bridge• Building• Park/open space• Drainage system• Electricity distribution &

transmissionPROJECT NAME & LOCATION

• Project name• Address

Menu Title Options

CLASSIFICATION • New• Remodel/retrofit/upgrade

PROJECT/ASSET LIFESPAN • Up to 2030• Up to 2050• Up to 2090• Beyond 2090

COASTAL INUNDATION POTENTIAL

drop-down options, informed by GIS viewer

PROXIMITY TO FLOODPLAIN drop-down options, informed by GIS viewer

PROXIMITY TO LANDSLIDE HAZARD

drop-down options, informed by GIS viewer

OVERALL RISK SENSITIVITY • High• Medium• Low

Link to GIS system

Seattle Project Objectives & Status

- Deploying the tool as part of an effort to integrate climate change adaptation into capital project design

- Status:- Building internal awareness with City staff- Pilot testing with a variety of projects (e.g., bridge project)- Integrating tool into current City project design process

Last Slide

• Next Steps: – Continue to deploy tool with local governments– Examine non-infrastructure focused applications

• Acknowledgements: City of Seattle staff, Adaptation International – Sascha Peterson, Cascadia Staff - Shannon Donegan, Christy Shelton, Andrea Martin, Sidney Brown.

Contact info: spencer@cascadiaconsulting.com