thayer china’s new wave of aggressive assertiveness power point slides

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China’s New Wave of Aggressive

Asser3veness in the South China Sea

Professor Carl Thayer

Mari3me Security in the South China Sea

CSIS Washington, DC July 20‐21, 2011

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Introduc3on

•  Late 2010 cau3ous op3mism

•  2011 aggressive asser3veness

• Driver 1 – sovereignty – U‐shaped map

•  Driver 2 hydrocarbon resources

 – Oil and gas explora3on by Philippines and Vietnam

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Recent Developments

China‐Malaysia

•  Malaysia’s Deputy Prime Minister visits Beijing

 – Agrees to bilateral discussions

•  Premier Wen Jiabao visits Kuala Lumpur

 – Pre‐departure interview

•  Bilateral discussions and joint development stressed

 – South China Sea treated lightly

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Recent Developments

China‐Philippines

•  President Aquino lobbies Indonesia & Brunei

•  Visit by Chinese Defence Minister

•  Territorial Defence

•  Exchange of protests

•  Zone of Peace, Freedom, Friendship and

Coopera3on

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China‐Philippines

Six‐seven major incidents

•  Feb 25 – shoo3ng at Filipino fishermen

•  Mar 2 – oil explora3on ship accosted

•  May 6 & 21 – intrusions into Philippines

waters

•  May 19 – intrusion by uniden3fied aircra\

•  May 24 – construc3on materials & buoy

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China‐Vietnam

•  5 confiden3al bilateral discussions 2010

•  4 high‐level mee3ngs

 – Special envoy to Beijing

 – Visit by vice chair Central Military Commission

 – Government boundary nego3a3ons

 – Defence ministers meet at Shangri‐la Dialogue

• Unilateral Fishing Ban (May 16‐Aug 1)

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China‐Vietnam

•  1st cable cung incident May 26

•  2nd cable cung incident June 9

•  Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung on

“incontestable sovereignty”

•  Live‐fire exercises

•  An3‐China demonstra3ons

•  Hacking aacks

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First Cable

Cung IncidentMay 26, 2011

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Shangri‐La Dialogue

•  Keynote speech by Prime Minister Najib

•  Defense Secretary Robert Gates

•  Defense Minister General Liang Guanglie•  Defence Minister General Phung Quang Thanh

•  Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin

•  Defence Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi

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Conclusion

•  Security of South China Sea an interna3onal

issue

•  Guidelines to implement the DOC work in

progress

•  ASEAN’s role: ARF and EAS

•  Coali3on of like‐minded states to provide

diploma3c support

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Conclusion

•  U.S.‐Philippines Mutual Security Treaty

 – Clarifica3on?

•  Enhancing mari3me security capaci3es

 – Philippines and Vietnam

•  ASEAN Treaty on Conduct of Par3es in theSouth China Sea

 – Open for accession by external states