the energy problem and what we can do about...

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The energy problem and what we can do about it.

Global Climate and Energy ProjectStanford University

18 September, 2006

2Chair: Norm Augustine, former Chairman and CEO of

Lockheed-Martin

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“Transitions to Sustainable Energy”The world has a clear and major

problem, with no global consensus on the way to proceed: how to achieve

transitions to an adequately affordable, sustainable clean energy supply”

Co-chairs: Jose Goldemberg, BrazilSteven Chu, USA

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•19 of the 20 warmest years since 1860 have all occurred since 1980.

•2005 was the warmest year in the instrumental record and probably the warmest in 1,000 years (tree rings, ice cores).

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Temperature over the last 420,000 yearsIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

We are here

CO2

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Concentration of Greenhouse gases

1750,the

beginning of the industrial

revolution

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Climate change due to natural causes (solar variations, volcanoes, etc.)

Climate change due to natural causes

and human generated

greenhouse gases

Temperature rise due to human emission of greenhouse gases

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T changes for 2x CO2

Computer simulations by the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab:

2x increase in CO2 from the pre-industrial level⇒ 5 -12 °F increase

4x increase in CO2

⇒ 15-23°F!

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Summer soil moisture in N America under doubled & quadrupled CO2(from the Princeton GFDL model)

Mid-continent soil-moisture reductions reach 50-60% in the 4xCO2 world.

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Significant climate change:

• Damage from storms, floods, wildfires

• Property losses and population displacement from sea-level rise + hurricanes or typhoons

• Productivity of farms, forests, & fisheries

• Heat-induced deaths

• Distribution & abundance of species

• Geography of disease

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Nature, 2005

Hurricane power in the North Atlantic and Pacific have doubled in the last 30 years

(Smoothed Data)

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1 σ = 68 % confidence level

2 σ = 95.4% confidence level

3 σ = 99.7% confidence level

For a Gaussian distribution:

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Unstable Glaciers

Surface melt on Greenland ice sheet

descending into moulin, a vertical shaft carrying the water to

base of ice sheet.

Source: Roger Braithwaite

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Bleached coral head: Bleaching occurs when high water temperature kills the living organisms in the coral,

leaving behind only the calcium carbonate skeleton.

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Ocean chemistry• Average pH ~ 8.2 ±0.3 • CO2 dissolved in seawater has lowered the

average pH of the oceans by about 0.1 (30% increase in hydrogen ions) from pre-industrial levels (Caldeira & Wickett Nature (2003).

• Changes in pH up to 0.5 are possible.

In laboratory experiments on the symbiont-bearing foraminiferans … a strong reduction in the calcification rate occurred as pH decreased from 9 to 7.”(Bijma et al 1999, 2002; Erez 2003).

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Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California,K. Hayhoea, et al., PNAS 101, 12422 (2004)

Using two state-of-the-art climate models that bracket most of the IPCC emissions scenarios:

B1 A1 fi

Heat wave mortality: 2-3x 5-7xAlpine/subalpine forests 50–75% 75–90% Sierra snowpack 30–70% 73–90%

“…with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combinedwith projected modest declines in winter precipitation, couldfundamentally disrupt California’s water rights system. AlthoughInter-scenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptationemerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are stronglydependent on emissions from preceding decades.”

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1) Conservation: maximize energy efficiency and minimize energy use, while insuring economic prosperity

2) Develop new sources of clean energy

A dual strategy is needed to solve the energy problem:

The Demand side of theEnergy Solution

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Total Electricity Use, per capita, 1960 - 2001

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,00019

60

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

KW

h

12,000

8,0007,000

California

U.S.

kWh

The Rosenfeld Effect ?

Art Rosenfeld turns his attention to the energy problem

Regulation stimulates technology: Refrigerator efficiency standards and performance. The expectation of

efficiency standards also stimulated industry innovation

US Electricity Use of Refrigerators and Freezers compared to sources of electricity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Bill

ion

kWh

per y

ear

150 M Refrig/Freezers

at 1974 eff at 2001 eff

Nuclear

Conventional Hydro

3 GorgesDam

ExistingRenewables

50 Million 2 kW PV Systems

Save

d

Use

d Use

d

The Value of Energy Saved and Produced. (assuming cost of generation = $.03/kWh

and cost of use = $.085/kWh)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Bill

ion

$ pe

r yea

r

Dollars Saved from150 M Refrig/Freezersat 2001 efficiency

Nuclear

Conventional

Hydro

Existing Renewables

50 Million 2 kWPV Systems

3 GorgesDam

ANWR

United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1947

1949

1951

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1955

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1961

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1971

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1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Ave

rage

Ene

rgy

Use

per

Uni

t Sol

d (k

Wh

per

year

)

Refrigerator Use per Unit

1978 Cal Standard

1990 Federal Standard

1987 Cal Standard

1980 Cal Standard

1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal

Standard

Estimated Standby Power (per house)

The attack of the “vampire” drains on energy

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US energy consumption by end-use sector1949 – 2004

Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem

• Coal, tar sands, shale oil, …

• Fusion

• Fission

• Wind

• Solar photocells

• Bio-mass

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US Energy consumption by fuel

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New electricity generation by fuel type including combined heat and power

(DOE/EIA 2006 report)

Carbon capture and storage costs

“To achieve such an economic potential, several hundreds to thousands of CO2 capture systems would need to be installed over the coming century ... The actual use of CCS … is likely to be lower due to factors such as environmental impacts, risks of leakage, and the lack of a clear legal framework or public acceptance”.IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage

Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem

• Coal, tar sands, shale oil, …

• Fusion

• Fission

• Wind

• Solar photocells

• Bio-mass

Nuclear Fission

• Nuclear waste• Nuclear proliferation • Economic and regulatory constraints

• 3 TW x 40% of US power = 1.2 TW

• By 2020, projected electricity increase = 0.4 TW.

• If all new electricity is nuclear power, we will need to build a 1 GW reactor every 10 days.

Can nuclear fission satisfy future electrical power needs?

• 0.24 TW (existing nuclear power plants) will have to be replaced in ~ 15 - 30 years.• To maintain 20% generation of electricity by nuclear power ⇒ five 1 GW reactors every year.

Research must be done to see if fuel re-cycling can be made proliferation resistant and economically feasible.

Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem

• Coal, tar sands, shale oil, …

• Fusion

• Fission

• Wind

• Solar photocells

• Bio-mass

Cost of AC and DC high voltage transmission lines

~ 100,000 TW of energy is received from the sun

Amount of land needed to capture 13 TW:20% efficiency (photovoltaic) = 0.23% 1% efficiency (bio-mass) = 4.6%

100,000 TW (1012 watts) of solar energy absorbed by the Earth

World population will peak at < 1010 peopleUS consumes ~10 kW / person, EU ~ 4 kW

Future energy needs:

4 x 103 W/person x 1010 people= 40 x 1012 watts= 0.14 % of incident solar poweron land

Long-term incentives were essential to stimulate long term development of wind power

3 MW capacity deployed and 5 MW generators in design(126 m diameter rotors).

The Betts Limit:

Assuming:• Conservation of mass for incompressible flow• Conservation of momentum,

Maximum kinetic energy delivered to a wind turbine = 16/27 (½)mv2

~ 0.59 of kinetic energy

va vb vb vc

Aa, Pa

Ab, PbD

Ac, Pc

Ab, PbU

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Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem

• Coal, tar sands, shale oil, …

• Fusion

• Fission

• Wind

• Solar photocells

• Bio-mass

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Sunlight

CO2, H20,

NutrientsBiomass Chemical

energy

Self-fertilizing,drought and pest

resistant

Improved conversion of cellulose into chemical fuel

Cellulose 40-60% Percent Dry WeightHemicellulose 20-40%

Lignin 10-25%

The majority of a plant is structural material

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~13 B ha of land in the Earth• 1.5 B ha for crops• 3.5 B ha for pastureland• 0.5 B ha are “built up”• 7.5 B ha are forest land or “other”

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Land best suited for biomass generation (Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa)

is the least utilized

Potential arable land suitable for rain-fed crops:1.5 Billion ha ⇒ 4 Billion ha

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~ 2 billion ~ 6 billion

46Source: US Dept of Agriculture

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> 1% conversion efficiency may be

feasible.

• Miscanthus yields: 30 dry tons/acre

• 100 gallons of ethanol / dry ton possible ⇒ 3,000 gal/acre.

• 100 M out of 450 M acres ⇒ ~300 B gal / year of ethanol

• US consumption (2004) = 141 B gal of gasoline~ 200 B gal of ethanol / year

• US also consumes 63 B gal diesel

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Greenhouse Gases

-

25

50

75

100

125

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Net Energy (MJ / L)

Net

GHG

(gC

O2e

/ M

J-et

hano

l)

Pimentel

Patzek

Shapouri

Wang

Graboski

Gasoline

de OlivieraToday

CO 2 Intensive

Cellulosic

Original data Commensurate values Gasoline EBAMM cases

Dan Kammen, et al. (2006)

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Sunlight

CO2, H20,

NutrientsBiomass Chemical

energy

Self-fertilizing,drought and pest

resistant

Improved conversion of cellulose into chemical fuel

Cellulose 40-60% Percent Dry WeightHemicellulose 20-40%

Lignin 10-25%

The majority of a plant is structural material

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Cellulose (40 – 60% of dry mass)• Linear polymer of the glucose-glucose dimer• Hydrolysis ⇒ glucose (6C sugar) ⇒ ethanol

Hemicellulose (20 -40%)Highly branched, short chain, 5C and 6C sugars

such as xylose arabinose, galactoseFermentation of hemicellulose in infancy(Ethanol substituted for other hydrocarbon

e.g. butanol, octanes, etc. ?)

Lignin (10 – 25%)• Does not lead to simple sugar molecules

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“The large coal deposits of the Carboniferous primarily owe theirexistence to two factors… the appearance of bark-bearing trees (and in particular the evolution of the bark fiber lignin) [and] the development of extensive lowland swamps and forests in North

America and Europe. It has been hypothesized that large quantities of wood were buried during this period because

animals and decomposing bacteria had not yet evolved that could effectively digest the new lignin.”

54From Christopher Somerville, IAC workshop, 2006

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Commercial ethanol production from cellulose

The biggest energy gains will come from improved fuel production from cellulose/lignin

A-CoA

AA-CoA

HMG-CoA

Mev

Mev-P

Mev-PP IPP

PMK MPDMK idi ispAHMGSatoB tHMGR

DMAPP

AmorOPP

FPP

ADS

Synthetic Biology:Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling

Identify the biosynthesis pathways in

A. annua

Can synthetic organisms be engineered to produce

ethanol, butanol or more suitable hydrocarbon fuel?

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Matrix Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR)Solving the Macro-Micro Interface Problem

Red: Primer Input (Multiplexed by N)

Blue: Template Input (Multiplexed by N)

Yellow: Taq Input (Multiplexed by N2)

N2 independent PCR reactions performed with 2N+1 inputs!

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Is it possible to develop a new class of durable solar cells with high efficiency at 1/5 to 1/10th

the cost of existing technology?

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Gen I: Silicon Gen II: Thin filmGen. III: Advanced future structures

Helios

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UC BerkeleyCampus

Berkeley Lab 200-acre site

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory3,800 employees, ~$520 M / year budget

10 Nobel Prize winners were/are employees of LBNL, and at least one more “in the pipeline”

Today:

59 employees in the National Academy of Sciences,18 in the National Academy of Engineering,

2 in the Institute of Medicine

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Helios: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory’s attack on the energy problem

CellulosePlantsCellulose-degrading

microbesEngineered

photosynthetic microbesand plants

ArtificialPhotosynthesis

ElectricityPV Electrochemistry

MethanolEthanolHydrogenHydrocarbons

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Bell Laboratories (Murray Hill, NJ)

15 scientists who worked at AT&T Bell laboratories

received Nobel Prizes.

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Shockley

Bardeen

BrittainMaterials Science

Theoretical and experimental physics- Electronic structure of

semiconductors- Electronic surface states- p-n junctions

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I. Sunlight to Fuel via Biomass• Improved conversion of biomass to fuels• Improved biomass production •Novel biofuel synthesis from organisms

II: Microbial synthesis of biofuels using photosynthesis

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III. Direct Photochemical or Photo-electrochemical Solar to Fuel Conversion

IV: Sunlight to Electricity to Fuel

IIIA. Nanotechnology enabled solar cells

IIIB. Electricity to Fuel. A new generation of electrochemical systems