the evidence climate change series eric jackson...

The Evidence

CLIMATE CHANGE SERIES

Eric Jackson ejackson@carbonlesspromise.com

The Evidence

The Basics The Facts

The Observations

The Credibility Factor

Last Thoughts

The Basics

The “Climate System” consists of

5 elements, all interconnected

Atmosphere--all systems within Earth’s gravity above the surface of the planet

Hydrosphere--oceans, lakes, rivers

Biosphere--all things living on Earth

Cryosphere--ice

Geosphere--soil and rock

The Climate

In any given year, tens of billions of tons of carbon move between the atmosphere,

hydrosphere, and geosphere. Human activities add about 5.5 billion tons per year of carbon

dioxide to the atmosphere.

Anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gases

✓Carbon Dioxide = CO2 : fossil fuels, deforestation, land use changes

✓Methane = CH4 : livestock, rice, landfills, natural gas

✓Nitrous Oxide = NO2 : commercial agriculture, land use changes

✓Ozone = O3 : at surface, interacts to form GHGs

✓Halocarbons = CFC, HFC, etc., : refrigerants, fire retardents

US Anthropogenic GHG Emission Sources

Important GHG and Sources

Natural greenhouse gases

Water Vapor

✓Carbon Dioxide = CO2

✓Methane = CH4

✓Nitrous Oxide = NO2

✓Ozone = O3

36-70%

30-64%

Methane Cycle

What is “the greenhouse effect”?

The Facts

Monthly Measurements at Manau Loa

Fossil Fuels Arrive

Antarctic Vostok ice core; 2.2 miles deep, 420,000 years of temperature and greenhouse

gas data

Atmospheric CO2 Projections

Text

The Observations

5th Largest island in the

worldLocated just

west of Greenland

Ice cap has shrunk 50% over last 50 yearsand will be gone by 2050University of Colorado Boulder

Baffin Island

✓ 25% size of USA✓ 80% covered by ice sheet✓ 5% of all world ice, if melted = 21 feet global sea level rise

Summer ice melt in 2007 exceeded previous record of 2005 by 10%.

Greenland

The Montana park has 26 named glaciers today, down from 150 in 1850. Those that remain are typically mere

remnants of their former frozen selves

Glacier Park

Argentina

Average Arctic Sea ice extent in September 2007 was the lowest on record, shattering the

previous record of 2005 by 23%. Arctic will likely be ice-free in summer by 2030.

Roughly twice as many hurricanes are now reported in the Atlantic compared to a century

ago. The increase is associated with rises in sea-surface temperature. National Center for Atmospheric

Research

In both the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans, the duration of tropical cyclones as well

as their strongest wind speeds have both increased by about 50% over the past 50 years.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide nearly doubled from the early 1970s

to the early 2000s. Georgia Institute of Technology and NCAR

Why do we believe the climate is changing?

The globe is warming. Averaged over all land and ocean surfaces, temperatures today are

about 0.75ºC warmer than at the beginning of the 20th Century. Rates of temperature rise are

greater in recent decades. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Climate Change i.e. Global Warming does not mean that equal and even changes will be

observed everywhere

melting polar regions

rising sea level increase drought

increase rain

glacial retreat altered agriculture

species ranges storm intensity/frequency

disease ranges

The Credibility Factor

Least Reliable

Most ReliableExpertise

BiasIndividual layperson

Individual professional

Think tanksAdvocacy groups

Support for my beliefs

Truth

PetitionsUniversities

Peer-reviewed science“Science”“Nature”Proceedings

from Nat Acad Science

Statements that contradict normal

bias

Professional organizations

U.S. scientists and economists call for swift and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions....

✓More than 1,700 scientists and economists✓6 Nobel Prize winners✓30 members of National Academy of Sciences✓10 members of National Academy of Engineering✓10 recipients of MacArthur Fellowship✓over 100 members of Intergovernmental Panel on CLimate Change (IPCC co-winner of 2007 Nobel Peace Prize)

American Association for the Advancement of Science

150+ years old>144,000 members

“The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring

now, and it is a growing threat to society. Accumulating data from across the globe reveal a wide array of effects: rapidly melting glaciers, destabilization of major ice sheets, increases in

extreme weather, rising sea level, shift in species ranges, and more.”

Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006

“The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas

emissions is now.”

Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006

American Association for the Advancement of Science

“ Delaying action to address climate change will increase the environmental and social

consequences as well as the costs. The longer we wait to tackle climate change, the harder

and more expensive the task will be.”

Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006

American Association for the Advancement of Science

>2,100 members

National Academy of Sciences

146 years old

>200 Nobel Prizes

“The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking

prompt action.”

Joint Science Academies’ Statement June, 2005

“We call on world leaders to:

✓Acknowledge that the threat of climate change is clear and increasing, and

✓Recognize that delayed action will increase the risk of adverse environmental effects and will likely incur a greater cost”

Joint Science Academies’ Statement June, 2005

National Academy of Sciences

Regarding climate change, what we now have is the peer-reviewed equivalent of the American Medical Association declaring that smoking is bad for you.

At the time, some doctors disagreed....

US Climate Action Partnership

ShellBP

Conoco PhillipsFordGM

ChryslerGE

DupontPGE

AlcoaCaterpillarDeere & Co

Duke EnergyNRG Energy, Inc

SiemensXerox

Dow Chemical

And now, we also have corporations presenting “contradictory” positions

US Climate Action Partnership

A group of businesses and leading environmental organizations that have come together to call on the federal government to

quickly enact strong national legislation to require significant reductions of greenhouse gas

emissions

Dateline January 15, 2009

This morning the US Climate Action Partnership released its Blueprint for Legislative Action.

“The United States faces an urgent need to reinvigorate our nation’s economy, enhance

energy security and take meaningful action to slow, stop and reverse GHG emissions to

address climate change.”

Washington, D.C.

“USCAP agrees that the science is sufficiently clear to justify prompt action to protect our environment. Each year of delayed action to

control emissions increases the risk of unavoidable consequences that could

necessitate even steeper reductions in the future, with potentially greater economic cost

and social disruption.”

Dateline January 15, 2009Washington, D.C.

Last Thoughts

“No one will be immune, but climate change will have a disproportionate effect on the lives of people living in poverty in developing countries. Between 1990 and 1998, 94 per cent of the world’s 568 major natural disasters, and more than 97 per cent of all natural disaster-related deaths, were in developing countries.”

Oxfam Policy Paper on Climate Change

Last Thoughts

“Now is the time for followers of Christ to help solve the global warming crisis. There is

overwhelming evidence that human activity is a major cause, and we know that the impacts of climate change would be hardest on the poor and vulnerable, and on future generations.”

Evangelical Climate Initiative

Next in the Climate Change Series....

The Arguments

January 25 at 9 and 10:30 AMJanuary 29 at 7 PM

Eric Jackson ejackson@carbonlesspromise.com