the evidence climate change series eric jackson...
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The Evidence
The Basics The Facts
The Observations
The Credibility Factor
Last Thoughts
The Basics
The “Climate System” consists of
5 elements, all interconnected
Atmosphere--all systems within Earth’s gravity above the surface of the planet
Hydrosphere--oceans, lakes, rivers
Biosphere--all things living on Earth
Cryosphere--ice
Geosphere--soil and rock
The Climate
In any given year, tens of billions of tons of carbon move between the atmosphere,
hydrosphere, and geosphere. Human activities add about 5.5 billion tons per year of carbon
dioxide to the atmosphere.
Anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gases
✓Carbon Dioxide = CO2 : fossil fuels, deforestation, land use changes
✓Methane = CH4 : livestock, rice, landfills, natural gas
✓Nitrous Oxide = NO2 : commercial agriculture, land use changes
✓Ozone = O3 : at surface, interacts to form GHGs
✓Halocarbons = CFC, HFC, etc., : refrigerants, fire retardents
US Anthropogenic GHG Emission Sources
Important GHG and Sources
Natural greenhouse gases
Water Vapor
✓Carbon Dioxide = CO2
✓Methane = CH4
✓Nitrous Oxide = NO2
✓Ozone = O3
36-70%
30-64%
Methane Cycle
What is “the greenhouse effect”?
The Facts
Monthly Measurements at Manau Loa
Fossil Fuels Arrive
Antarctic Vostok ice core; 2.2 miles deep, 420,000 years of temperature and greenhouse
gas data
Atmospheric CO2 Projections
Text
The Observations
5th Largest island in the
worldLocated just
west of Greenland
Ice cap has shrunk 50% over last 50 yearsand will be gone by 2050University of Colorado Boulder
Baffin Island
✓ 25% size of USA✓ 80% covered by ice sheet✓ 5% of all world ice, if melted = 21 feet global sea level rise
Summer ice melt in 2007 exceeded previous record of 2005 by 10%.
Greenland
The Montana park has 26 named glaciers today, down from 150 in 1850. Those that remain are typically mere
remnants of their former frozen selves
Glacier Park
Argentina
Average Arctic Sea ice extent in September 2007 was the lowest on record, shattering the
previous record of 2005 by 23%. Arctic will likely be ice-free in summer by 2030.
Roughly twice as many hurricanes are now reported in the Atlantic compared to a century
ago. The increase is associated with rises in sea-surface temperature. National Center for Atmospheric
Research
In both the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans, the duration of tropical cyclones as well
as their strongest wind speeds have both increased by about 50% over the past 50 years.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide nearly doubled from the early 1970s
to the early 2000s. Georgia Institute of Technology and NCAR
Why do we believe the climate is changing?
The globe is warming. Averaged over all land and ocean surfaces, temperatures today are
about 0.75ºC warmer than at the beginning of the 20th Century. Rates of temperature rise are
greater in recent decades. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Climate Change i.e. Global Warming does not mean that equal and even changes will be
observed everywhere
melting polar regions
rising sea level increase drought
increase rain
glacial retreat altered agriculture
species ranges storm intensity/frequency
disease ranges
The Credibility Factor
Least Reliable
Most ReliableExpertise
BiasIndividual layperson
Individual professional
Think tanksAdvocacy groups
Support for my beliefs
Truth
PetitionsUniversities
Peer-reviewed science“Science”“Nature”Proceedings
from Nat Acad Science
Statements that contradict normal
bias
Professional organizations
U.S. scientists and economists call for swift and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions....
✓More than 1,700 scientists and economists✓6 Nobel Prize winners✓30 members of National Academy of Sciences✓10 members of National Academy of Engineering✓10 recipients of MacArthur Fellowship✓over 100 members of Intergovernmental Panel on CLimate Change (IPCC co-winner of 2007 Nobel Peace Prize)
American Association for the Advancement of Science
150+ years old>144,000 members
“The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring
now, and it is a growing threat to society. Accumulating data from across the globe reveal a wide array of effects: rapidly melting glaciers, destabilization of major ice sheets, increases in
extreme weather, rising sea level, shift in species ranges, and more.”
Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006
“The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas
emissions is now.”
Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006
American Association for the Advancement of Science
“ Delaying action to address climate change will increase the environmental and social
consequences as well as the costs. The longer we wait to tackle climate change, the harder
and more expensive the task will be.”
Approved by AAAS Board December 9, 2006
American Association for the Advancement of Science
>2,100 members
National Academy of Sciences
146 years old
>200 Nobel Prizes
“The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking
prompt action.”
Joint Science Academies’ Statement June, 2005
“We call on world leaders to:
✓Acknowledge that the threat of climate change is clear and increasing, and
✓Recognize that delayed action will increase the risk of adverse environmental effects and will likely incur a greater cost”
Joint Science Academies’ Statement June, 2005
National Academy of Sciences
Regarding climate change, what we now have is the peer-reviewed equivalent of the American Medical Association declaring that smoking is bad for you.
At the time, some doctors disagreed....
US Climate Action Partnership
ShellBP
Conoco PhillipsFordGM
ChryslerGE
DupontPGE
AlcoaCaterpillarDeere & Co
Duke EnergyNRG Energy, Inc
SiemensXerox
Dow Chemical
And now, we also have corporations presenting “contradictory” positions
US Climate Action Partnership
A group of businesses and leading environmental organizations that have come together to call on the federal government to
quickly enact strong national legislation to require significant reductions of greenhouse gas
emissions
Dateline January 15, 2009
This morning the US Climate Action Partnership released its Blueprint for Legislative Action.
“The United States faces an urgent need to reinvigorate our nation’s economy, enhance
energy security and take meaningful action to slow, stop and reverse GHG emissions to
address climate change.”
Washington, D.C.
“USCAP agrees that the science is sufficiently clear to justify prompt action to protect our environment. Each year of delayed action to
control emissions increases the risk of unavoidable consequences that could
necessitate even steeper reductions in the future, with potentially greater economic cost
and social disruption.”
Dateline January 15, 2009Washington, D.C.
Last Thoughts
“No one will be immune, but climate change will have a disproportionate effect on the lives of people living in poverty in developing countries. Between 1990 and 1998, 94 per cent of the world’s 568 major natural disasters, and more than 97 per cent of all natural disaster-related deaths, were in developing countries.”
Oxfam Policy Paper on Climate Change
Last Thoughts
“Now is the time for followers of Christ to help solve the global warming crisis. There is
overwhelming evidence that human activity is a major cause, and we know that the impacts of climate change would be hardest on the poor and vulnerable, and on future generations.”
Evangelical Climate Initiative
Next in the Climate Change Series....
The Arguments
January 25 at 9 and 10:30 AMJanuary 29 at 7 PM
Eric Jackson [email protected]