the future - energy huntsville · rational and inevitable ... “similarly to the internet”...

The Future

3rd Industrial Revolution

By Jeremy Rifkin

When Generation, Storage and Connectivity for energy is ubiquitous and inexpensive what could entrepreneurs do?

Sustainability:Water & Air ?

Water is Life,

Energy is Quality of Life

Past & Present – Centralization Paradigm

Today’s Problem: Visability, Peak Energy & Demand

Today Problem: Standby Capacity is Inefficient & Expensive

Today’s Problem: Grid Outages (Cyber, Weather, Age)

(addressable today)

The Future Solution is Decentralization

ComputingMainframes with Micro Computers with Mobile Computing

Unleashed by Innovation

CommunicationsLandlines with Cell Phones with Mobile Voice, Video & Data

Unleashed by Innovation and Policy

Utility Decentralization is Central Power Plants working with Distributed Energy Resources

RATIONAL and INEVITABLEBeing Unleashed by Technology & Policy

Solution

1st Order Result :Negative Network Impact “Status Quo Objects”

2nd Order Result:Explosive Growth for DER & IOT

Wildcard:Speed of Innovation & Cost Reductions

“Similarly to the Internet”

Distributed Energy Resources (DER) & Internet of Things (IOT)

The Internet 1975

Processing, Storage and Communications were EXPENSIVE !

The Internet Today – Processing, Storage and Communications are Cheap !

What and Why?

Processing Speed and Communications

2016 Deal Bid $.029 per kWh for Large Scale Solar

The Next Law -

• Moore's Law – Inexpensive ProcessingMain Frame to Micro Computers – Centralized to Distributed (I.T. driven)

• Metcalf's Law – Inexpensive Communications Telecommunication - Ma Belle Breakup – Centralized to Distributed (I.T. driven)

• Sachs Law – Inexpensive Renewables & Storage DER & Internet of Things devices - Centralized to Distributed (E.T. )

“When Sachs, Moore's and Metcalf's Laws Come together with big data analytics

EVERYTHING will change”

When Processing, Storage & Communications are inexpensive It Will Means Explosive Growth for DER & IOT

DER and IOTOpportunities

Standards and Protocols will allow for Sachs, Moore's’ and Metcalf’s Laws to cause accelerated adoption

Of (DER & IoT) LANs and WANs for Energy

2016

Internet of Things

IoT51 Billion Devices

coming Every Building

The GridSmart Meters

+Distributed Energy

ResourcesDER

I.T. E.T.

2020IT, ET, IoT & Data

- Progress- Duke- Nextera- Edison

Electric- GE- ITRON

- Google- Cisco- IBM- Honeywell- GE- Siemens

Opportunities for Entrepreneur Companies

DER & IOT make buildings Intelligent Energy Nodes

DER & IOT enables Big Data, which can optimize the load & grid.

Original Demand Profile Optimal Demand Profile

The DifferencesAre the Savings !

Aggregator

(VTN or VEN)

C&I Residential

C&I Residential

Utility

(VTN)

Distributed Energy Resource (DER)

Aggregation Providers

Distributed Energy Resource (DER)

Management

Dynamic

Prosumer

Emerging Market Structure -Prosumer & Dynamic

Path to Dynamic Energy (Transactive)

The Not Too Distant Future.Intelligent Energynet

(Imagine Big Data Analytics with Machine Learning applied to DER & IOT)

Solar and Storage

Parking Lot Power Plants w/Storage – “uses real estate but does not consume it”

$ COST AVR kw/hr

6am 12pm 6am

1-Peak & Capacity Most expensive energy

Increasing faster than

other energy costs

Time of use pricing

Standby Demand Cost

Pain Driving Change2- Outages & Infrastructure

Stress from Peak Demand

Weather threats

Cyber threats

Smart Grid Integration

Analog vs. Digital

Mechanical vs. Electrical

Capital Constraints

Solution :Decentralization with DER

Result 1st Order:Negative Network Impact

Result 2nd Order:Explosive Growth for DER

Wildcard:Speed of Innovation & Cost Reductions

2016 Deal Bid $.029 per kWh for Large Scale Solar

Storage Solutions by Sector

27

Ramp Control

Curtailment Mitigation

Firming/Shaping

Interconnection Compliance

Grid Services

T&D Deferral

Voltage Support

Power Quality

Grid Reliability Enhancement

Frequency Regulation

Voltage Regulation

Responsive Reserves

Commercial & Industrial

Peak Shaving & Demand Charge

Management

Energy Market Participation

Time Shift and Back Up Power

EV Charging

Renewable

Integration

Transmission

& Distribution

Ancillary Service

Providers

Supplamental

”Killer”Area of Impact Tool ApplicationLiteracy Printing Press Bible

Transportation Automobile Model T

Computing Micro Computer Spreadsheet

Telecommunications Wireless Cell Phone

Information Internet Search Engines

Energy DER & IOT EnergyNet Intelligent Sustainability Distributed

Resources

LEDs for Efficiency

Solar for On Site Generation

Big Data Analytics w/AI

WHAT IS A “KILLER APPLICATION”?

Grid

The EnergyNet is coming

Generate

Transmit

Distribute

Store

Buildings

Efficiency

SMART

Net Zero

Intelligent

Grid Node

think “IPhone”

Transportation

Electric

Bio Fuels

Nat Gas

Fuel Cells

MODERNIZATION