the future - energy huntsville · rational and inevitable ... “similarly to the internet”...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Future
3rd Industrial Revolution
By Jeremy Rifkin
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When Generation, Storage and Connectivity for energy is ubiquitous and inexpensive what could entrepreneurs do?
Sustainability:Water & Air ?
Water is Life,
Energy is Quality of Life
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Past & Present – Centralization Paradigm
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Today’s Problem: Visability, Peak Energy & Demand
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Today Problem: Standby Capacity is Inefficient & Expensive
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Today’s Problem: Grid Outages (Cyber, Weather, Age)
(addressable today)
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The Future Solution is Decentralization
ComputingMainframes with Micro Computers with Mobile Computing
Unleashed by Innovation
CommunicationsLandlines with Cell Phones with Mobile Voice, Video & Data
Unleashed by Innovation and Policy
Utility Decentralization is Central Power Plants working with Distributed Energy Resources
RATIONAL and INEVITABLEBeing Unleashed by Technology & Policy
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Solution
1st Order Result :Negative Network Impact “Status Quo Objects”
2nd Order Result:Explosive Growth for DER & IOT
Wildcard:Speed of Innovation & Cost Reductions
“Similarly to the Internet”
Distributed Energy Resources (DER) & Internet of Things (IOT)
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The Internet 1975
Processing, Storage and Communications were EXPENSIVE !
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The Internet Today – Processing, Storage and Communications are Cheap !
What and Why?
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Processing Speed and Communications
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2016 Deal Bid $.029 per kWh for Large Scale Solar
The Next Law -
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• Moore's Law – Inexpensive ProcessingMain Frame to Micro Computers – Centralized to Distributed (I.T. driven)
• Metcalf's Law – Inexpensive Communications Telecommunication - Ma Belle Breakup – Centralized to Distributed (I.T. driven)
• Sachs Law – Inexpensive Renewables & Storage DER & Internet of Things devices - Centralized to Distributed (E.T. )
“When Sachs, Moore's and Metcalf's Laws Come together with big data analytics
EVERYTHING will change”
When Processing, Storage & Communications are inexpensive It Will Means Explosive Growth for DER & IOT
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DER and IOTOpportunities
Standards and Protocols will allow for Sachs, Moore's’ and Metcalf’s Laws to cause accelerated adoption
Of (DER & IoT) LANs and WANs for Energy
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2016
Internet of Things
IoT51 Billion Devices
coming Every Building
The GridSmart Meters
+Distributed Energy
ResourcesDER
I.T. E.T.
2020IT, ET, IoT & Data
- Progress- Duke- Nextera- Edison
Electric- GE- ITRON
- Google- Cisco- IBM- Honeywell- GE- Siemens
Opportunities for Entrepreneur Companies
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DER & IOT make buildings Intelligent Energy Nodes
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DER & IOT enables Big Data, which can optimize the load & grid.
Original Demand Profile Optimal Demand Profile
The DifferencesAre the Savings !
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Aggregator
(VTN or VEN)
C&I Residential
C&I Residential
Utility
(VTN)
Distributed Energy Resource (DER)
Aggregation Providers
Distributed Energy Resource (DER)
Management
Dynamic
Prosumer
Emerging Market Structure -Prosumer & Dynamic
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Path to Dynamic Energy (Transactive)
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The Not Too Distant Future.Intelligent Energynet
(Imagine Big Data Analytics with Machine Learning applied to DER & IOT)
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Solar and Storage
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Parking Lot Power Plants w/Storage – “uses real estate but does not consume it”
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$ COST AVR kw/hr
6am 12pm 6am
1-Peak & Capacity Most expensive energy
Increasing faster than
other energy costs
Time of use pricing
Standby Demand Cost
Pain Driving Change2- Outages & Infrastructure
Stress from Peak Demand
Weather threats
Cyber threats
Smart Grid Integration
Analog vs. Digital
Mechanical vs. Electrical
Capital Constraints
Solution :Decentralization with DER
Result 1st Order:Negative Network Impact
Result 2nd Order:Explosive Growth for DER
Wildcard:Speed of Innovation & Cost Reductions
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2016 Deal Bid $.029 per kWh for Large Scale Solar
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Storage Solutions by Sector
27
Ramp Control
Curtailment Mitigation
Firming/Shaping
Interconnection Compliance
Grid Services
T&D Deferral
Voltage Support
Power Quality
Grid Reliability Enhancement
Frequency Regulation
Voltage Regulation
Responsive Reserves
Commercial & Industrial
Peak Shaving & Demand Charge
Management
Energy Market Participation
Time Shift and Back Up Power
EV Charging
Renewable
Integration
Transmission
& Distribution
Ancillary Service
Providers
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Supplamental
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”Killer”Area of Impact Tool ApplicationLiteracy Printing Press Bible
Transportation Automobile Model T
Computing Micro Computer Spreadsheet
Telecommunications Wireless Cell Phone
Information Internet Search Engines
Energy DER & IOT EnergyNet Intelligent Sustainability Distributed
Resources
LEDs for Efficiency
Solar for On Site Generation
Big Data Analytics w/AI
WHAT IS A “KILLER APPLICATION”?
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Grid
The EnergyNet is coming
Generate
Transmit
Distribute
Store
Buildings
Efficiency
SMART
Net Zero
Intelligent
Grid Node
think “IPhone”
Transportation
Electric
Bio Fuels
Nat Gas
Fuel Cells
MODERNIZATION