the future of mobile (i.e. everything) futurist speaker gerd leonhard

The next 5 years in Mobile* i.e. everything

‘Business as Usual’ is dead

Scenes at papal inaugurations 2005 versus 2013Nest Smart Meter App

Image via Ericsson

Image via Ericsson

A majority of your 2018 revenues is likely to come from products and services that don’t even exist today

The End of ‘Protected Spaces’ is nearMediaTelecomBankingMoneyMedical Pharma

Mobile Broadband is a cash-cow shifter

Cloud Culture: Abundant...EverythingPhoto by incurable_hippie - http://flic.kr/p/4XtorH

Beware: “Managed Dissatisfaction” is endingReed Hastings, Netflix CEO on Arrested Development, House of Cards, and the Future of Netflix: Movies + TV: GQ via Quartz.com

“Hastings call this managed dissatisfaction. The traditional entertainment ecosystem is built on it, and it’s a totally artificial concept”

The point of managed dissatisfaction is waiting. You’re supposed to wait for your show that comes on Wednesday at 8 p.m., wait for the new season, see all the ads everywhere for the new season, talk to your friends at the office about how excited you are...”

The Internet of Everything

1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 1 6 - 3 2 - 6 4 - 1 2 8Video Source: Cisco via Youtube

Soon: 1000s of smart little helper ‘agents’

Video Source: IBM Future Scenarios, Youtube

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Video Source: Cisco via Youtube

http://soulofstartrek.blogspot.ch/2012/01/enterprise-d-in-hd-captains-log-next.html

‘Business as Usual’ is deadETA: 2017

Used to be Is (almost) Soon for some Beyond soon but quite likely

Mobility (R)Evolutions: Huge social, economic, ethical implications

Expect a $250 Billion shift, globally

2015: ICT | Big Data | SoLoMo Intelligence everywhere

Most products become services

From ownership to access

Photo by 900hp - http://flic.kr/p/9MTJpf

Being human in a ‘totally digital’ society

Massive Human - Machine /AI Interface (R)Evolution

Deep, real-time, contextual data ☯ Fast & ubiquitous connectivity ☯ Location-aware services ☯ Powerful yet cheap mobile devices ☯ Cloud computing culture ☯ Video is the new text ☯ Social-everything ☯ Ultra-smart electronic agents ☯ The Internet of Things / M2M

=

Mobile Devices are our external brains

Total Convergence

Online

Offline

Human

Machine

ThingsEventsInformationData

Machine / Robot / AI Jobs versus Human Jobs

0

23

45

68

90

Today 2015 2020 2040

Machines, Software Agents, AI, Robots Trad. HumanONLY Human * supported by Machines

Source: Gerd Leonhard Projection

Traditional human labor will shift to machines, dramatic rise of highly ie only-human work

Paradigm-shifts on an unprecedented scale

Most of us already are or will become Knowledge | Creative | Connective-Workers

...using real-time information and intelligence supplied by an exponentially growing digital network that will leverage the IoT / IoE and Smart Machines

Humarithms: emotional, fluid, organic ≠ Algorithms

Next: fabricated realities...?Realness will prevail

Brands: make sense not noise:)

Image source: http://pinterest.com/cibbva/

Image source http://itvtu.blogspot.ch/2012_08_01_archive.html

Locked LooseBusiness Models: the direction is clear!

Liquid

Flexible. Resilient. Decentralized

Data is the new Oil (again:::)

If Data is the new Oil let’s hope we will do things differently, this time

The 3 spheres of data: shift towards anticipation

Volunteered Observed Inferred

Personal Data. Granular Permissions. Timely Knowledge. Precise Location Awareness. Highly

Contextual. Totally Realtime = Predictive Powers.

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The Future: Contextual Search (contextual everything:)

We are being searched...sought-

out...found

Most technologies that we used to direct will start

conducting themselves

Searching for something

Informationseeking us

i.e. we are ‘being searched’

Everything becomes:DynamicReal-time

SocialMobileLocalFluid

Predictive

In order for any of this to work, we will need a

Gigantic Opt-in

http://www.brandnewmedia.co.uk/2012/02/29/the-joy-of-not-being-sold-anything/

We need to consider the social implications of IoT and IoE, Big Data, M2M, AI, Prediction technologies

Let’s not kill the golden goose

Photo by the justified sinner - http://flic.kr/p/djnXUR

Do we really need more‘intelligentmarketing’

just to create the next

Generation of Human

ConsumptionMachines...?

Attention Economy ☯ Intention Economy

Via Wikipedia: “Doc Searls coined the term in the Linux Journal: "The Intention Economy grows around buyers, not sellers. It leverages the simple fact that buyers are the first source of money, and that they come ready-made. You don't need advertising to make them" Despite the advancement internet businesses are still seller oriented.

Searls gives an example of intention economy scenario:

"A car rental customer should be able to say to the car rental market, 'I'll be skiing in Park City from March 20-25. I want to rent a 4-wheel drive SUV. I belong to Avis Wizard, Budget FastBreak and Hertz 1 Club. I don't want to pay up front for gas or

get any insurance. What can any of you companies do for me?' — and have the sellers compete for the buyer's business."

Yet we must retain places like this

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And we will certainly need seriously reliable

Ways to Opt-Out

“We’re at the level of infants in moral responsibility - but with the technological capability of adults”

Nick Bostrom (Oxford University)BBC News - How are humans going to become extinct?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22002530

Faustian Bargains everywhere?

Photo by Zanthia - http://flic.kr/p/bpXtEx

A love-hate relationship between us and the users of our data?

5 Billion ‘Consumers’ will push back

From mousetraps to magnets

Summary & Key Take-Aways

Thanks for your time and attention!Visit GerdCloud.com to download this PDF

(and many others incl. my free books)