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This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic
conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the
development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed
herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at:
www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts
based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources
including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the
permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
The Outlook for Energy:
A View to 2040 Bill Colton May 2015
2
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
GDP Growth Varies By Region
GDP Growth Rate
Y/Y Percent
India
China Key Growth
United States
OECD Europe*
World GDP by Region
Trillion 2010$
OECD
Non
OECD 3.1%
2.8%
*Turkey included in Key Growth countries
3
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
PPP 2005$k
Standards of Living Increase in the Non OECD
2040 GDP per Capita
2010
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
4
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Developing Economies Dominate Growth
OECD*
Rest of World
India
China
Key Growth
Quadrillion BTUs
Demand by Region
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
5
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
European Union Energy Trends
Indexed to 2000
GDP
Population
Demand
CO2 Emissions
6
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
3,500 AA batteries
1,100 smart phone batteries
Energy Measures and Units
24,500 BTU 1 log ~
1.3 logs 1 liter petrol ~
1 liter petrol 10 kWh ~
7
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
2010 World Daily Energy Demand
21
OECD Per Capita
15
Times 7 billion people =
~44 billion liters per day
260 MBDOE
525 QUADS
9
World Per Capita
6.4
8
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Primary Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
‘10
‘25
‘40
Transportation Res/Comm Industrial Electricity
Generation
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
9
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Primary Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
‘10
‘25
‘40
Transportation Res/Comm Industrial Electricity
Generation
European Union Energy Demand
10
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
11
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Improved
Standard of Living
Population Growth
Electricity Demand
Electricity Demand by Region
Thousand TWh
Electricity Demand
Thousand TWh
United States
India
Europe
China
Key Growth
2014
Industrial Growth
Base Demand
12
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Economic Choices for Europe Electricity
2030 Levelized Cost of Electricity
2014 U.S. cents/kWh
Reliability
Cost*
Reliability
Cost*
CO2 Cost:
$60/tonne
*Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs.
Baseload Intermittent
13
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
European Union Electricity Demand
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass
Wind & Solar
Other Renewables
Electricity Demand
Thousand Terawatt Hour
Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption
Quadrillion BTUs
14
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation Fuel by Region
Quadrillion BTUs
‘10 ‘25 ‘40
Key Growth
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Solar Wind
Other
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
15
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
16
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Sector Demand
MBDOE
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Aviation
Transportation Demand
17
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
EU Transportation Demand & Fleet Shift
Light Duty
Aviation
Heavy Duty
Marine
Rail
Transportation Demand
MBDOE
Light Duty Vehicles
Million
18
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Fuel Mix by Region
Asia Pacific MBDOE
Diesel
Gasoline
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Jet Fuel Fuel Oil
Other
Natural Gas
North America MBDOE
Europe MBDOE
19
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Global Demand
2040 By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 - 2040
1.0%
2010
0.8%
1.6%
2.3% 0.5%
5.8% 1.8%
0.1%
20
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
CO2 Emissions
21
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
World Energy-related CO2 Emissions
Billion metric tonnes
CO2 Emissions by Region
OECD*
Rest of World
India
China
Key Growth
Thousand BTUs per 2010$ GDP
CO2 Emissions by Region
Non OECD
OECD
CO2 Intensity (Tonnes CO2 per billion BTUs)
1980
2010
2040
Improving
Efficiency
Reducing CO2
Content
5 billion metric tonnes CO2
1980
*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
22
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Supply
z
z
23
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Global Liquids and Gas Supply
BCFD
Global Gas Supply
Conventional
MBDOE
Supply by Type
Other Liquids Biofuels
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Developed Conventional
Crude & Condensate
New Conventional
C&C Development
Unconventional
Rest of World
Asia Pacific
North America
24
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade Balance by Region
North
America
Latin
America
Europe Russia/
Caspian
Africa Middle
East
Asia
Pacific
MBDOE
Biofuels
Natural Gas Liquids
Other
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
Deepwater
Conventional C&C Development
Conventional Crude & Condensate
Demand
‘10 ‘30 ‘40 ‘20
25
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Gas Trade Balance by Region
North
America
Latin
America
Europe Russia/
Caspian
Africa Middle
East
Asia
Pacific
BCFD
‘10 ‘30 ‘40 ‘20
Demand
Unconventional Production
Conventional Production
26
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro Nuclear
Other Renewables
Quadrillion BTUs
Demand by Fuel
For more information, visit
exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
or download the ExxonMobil app
The Outlook
for Energy:
A View to 2040
29
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Global Demand
OECD
Non
OECD
Total Non OECD
share
increases from
55% to 70%
2040 By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
30
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Regional Energy Trends Evolve
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Other AP
China
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
Quadrillion BTUs
Demand by Region
31
ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Quadrillion BTUs
Global Mix of Fuels
1800 1900 2000 1850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other Renewables
2040
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
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