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Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve Today’s Presenters

Eric Ross Esther Strawder

FHWA- Office of Infrastructure FHWA-Office of Safety

TPM Engineer Safety Specialist

Eric.Ross@dot.gov Esther.Strawder@dot.gov Nathaniel Coley Michael Nesbitt FHWA- Office of Infrastructure FHWA- Office of Infrastructure Economist Stakeholder Engagement Liaison Nathaniel.Coley@dot.gov Michael.Nesbitt@dot.gov

FHWA Transportation Performance Management

FHWA Program Performance Management 2

Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve

LCCA and RealCost in Map-21/TPM

TPM Exchange Office of Transportation Performance Management

March 25, 2013

Eric Ross Eric.Ross@dot.gov

Transportation Performance Management Engineer

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LCCA and RealCost in Map-21/TPM

• LCCA – Economic Analysis

– Compares Different Alternatives

– Discount Rates

• What Do you need? – Agency costs

Design, Activity timing,

Structural Life, Functional Life,

Analysis Period, ….

– User Costs

Activity Duration, Capacities,

Speeds, ADT, Operating Costs, …

FHWA Transportation Performance Management

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Life Cycle

Terminal Serviceability Index

Condit

ion

Initial

Activity Activity One Activity Two

Time

Service

Life

Analysis Period

When will the future maintenance and rehabilitation costs be incurred?

FHWA Transportation Performance Management

Present Value =

of Costs

N

k = 0 Σ o(C

1

(1 + d)nk

tk) x

Present Value Factor

s

Cost = Cost of the activity

N = length of analysis period

d = discount rate

nk = year of expenditure

Computing Life-Cycle Costs

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Alternative A

Alternative B

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00

Fre

qu

en

cy,

%

Net Present Value (NPV), $Millions

Probabilistic Approach

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Net Present Value (NPV), $Millions

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Pro

ba

bilit

y, %

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

- 2.50 - 2.00 - 1.50 - 1.00 - 0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

60% of the Time Alternative A will be Less than Alternative B.

Difference Distribution Curve

Alt A – Alt B

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LCCA Software - RealCostTM

FHWA Transportation Performance Management 8

FHWA Transportation Performance Management 9

FHWA Program Performance Management 10

Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve

Benefit-Cost Analysis An Investment/Economic Analysis Tool

TPM Exchange Office of Transportation Performance Management

March 25, 2013

Nathaniel D. Coley, MBA

Structural Engineer/Economist Office of Transportation Performance Management

Why Investment/Economic Analysis?

• System demands far outweigh available & expected resources

• Links accountability to decision making

• Proven process for evaluating alternatives

• MAP-21 Requirements “link investments to outcomes”

– Investment Plans

– Performance-Based Plans

– Financial Plans

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Bridge/Pavement Investments

Emissions Reductions

Congestion Reduction

Crash Modification

Factors

Other Areas

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Analyzing Transportation Decisions

• We typically evaluate objectives individually but

program projects as a package of objectives

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Analyzing Transportation Decisions

Overall Project Merit

• We need to evaluate investment decisions on a

project by project bases considering all factors

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Analyzing Transportation Decisions

Building a Program or Plan

Overall Project Merit

Overall Project Merit

Overall Project Merit

Overall Project Merit

Benefit – Cost Ratio

Safety ROI Life-Cycle Costs

Environmental ROI

7.3 $2.3m -234 crashes

Avoided

5.1mil $3.1m Or

NOx

2.1 $2.3m -234 crashes

Avoided

7.1mil $7m Or CO

.03 $2.3m -234 crashes

Avoided

15.1mil $1.9m Or

NOx

-2 $2.3m -234 crashes

Avoided

22.1mil $5.3m Or

NOx

For public agencies benefit‐cost analysis results describe ROI.  Traditional benefit cost analysis and ROI analysis for transportation includes user benefits (time, cost, safety) for travelers and select environmental effects (air, quality, noise) along with capital, operations, and maintenance(O&M) costs.

Economic/Investment Analysis

1

Economic/Investment Analysis

16 17 18 19 20

Initial Capital

Cost

Dollars

Benefits

Costs

15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Year

Example Benefits

•Reduced Accident Costs

•Reductions in Delay Costs

•Reduced noise or emissions We monetize benefits & account for the changing value of a dollar over time

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Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost

analysis tool

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Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost

analysis tool

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Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost

analysis tool

• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects

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Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost

analysis tool

• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects

FHWA Program Performance Management 21

Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost

analysis tool

• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects

• NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool

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Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost

analysis tool

• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects

• NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool

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Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost

analysis tool

• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects

• NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool

FHWA Program Performance Management 24

Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost

analysis tool

• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects

• NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool

• BLCCA2:Bridge Life- Cycle Cost Analysis

FHWA Program Performance Management 25

Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost

analysis tool

• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects

• NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool

• BLCCA2:Bridge Life- Cycle Cost Analysis

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Nathaniel D. Coley Jr.Federal Highway Adm.Washington, DCNColey@dot.gov202-366-2171

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/infrastructure/asstmgmt/economic.cfm

Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve

HSM and Related Analysis Tools

TPM Exchange Office of Transportation Performance Management

March 25, 2013

Esther Strawder Safety Specialist, FHWA- Office of Safety

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What is the HSM?

• The HSM is a tool for estimating safety performance of design and traffic control elements being evaluated in the project development process

• The HSM introduces a science-based approach that allows safety to be quantitatively evaluated alongside traffic operations, environmental impacts and construction costs

• Provides analytical tools and techniques for quantifying the potential effects on crashes as a result of decisions made in planning, design, operations, and maintenance

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HSM Related Analysis Tools

HSM Section Related Web links Tools

Part B: Roadway Safety Management Process

Safety Analyst www.safetyanalyst.org

Part C: Predictive Methods

IHSDM www.ihsdm.org

Part D: Crash Modification Factors (CMFs)

CMF

Clearinghouse

cmfclearinghouse.org

30 FHWA Transportation Performance Management

How do the tools relate to HSM?

• Safety Analyst provides a set of

software tools used by state and local highway agencies for the highway safety management process documented in Part B of the HSM

• Safety Analyst can be used by highway agencies to improve their programming of site-specific highway safety improvements.

• The IHSDM Crash Prediction

Module (CPM) provides a faithful software implementation of the crash prediction methods documented in Part C of the HSM

• IHSDM is a suite of software analysis tools for evaluating safety and operational effects of geometric design decisions on highways

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CMF Clearinghouse

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Ray Krammes – Data & Analysis Team Leader

Ray.Krammes@dot.gov

(202) 366-2175

Mshadoni Smith – HSM & Analysis Tools POC

Mshadoni.Smith@dot.gov

(202) 366-7105

Esther Strawder – Integration & Planning POC

Esther.Strawder@dot.gov

(202) 366-6836

Karen Scurry – CMF Clearing House

Karen.Scurry@dot.gov

(609) 637-4207

Clayton Chen – IHSDM

Clayton.Chen@dot.gov

(202) 493-3054

QUESTIONS

Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve

MAP-21 Website

TPM Exchange Office of Transportation Performance Management

March 25, 2013

Michael Nesbitt Stakeholder Engagement Liaison

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www.fhwa.dot.gov/map21

FHWA Transportation Performance Management michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

www.fhwa.dot.gov/map21

FHWA Transportation Performance Management michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

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FHWA Transportation Performance Management michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

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FHWA Transportation Performance Management michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

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FHWA Transportation Performance Management michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

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FHWA Transportation Performance Management michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

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FHWA Transportation Performance Management michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

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www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm

FHWA Transportation Performance Management michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

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michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

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michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

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michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

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www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm

Do you want to learn more about collaborating on performance management with regional partners? Contact

Michael Nesbitt

202-366-1179

Michael.Nesbitt@dot.gov

FHWA Transportation Performance Management michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

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www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm

Do you have a Noteworthy Practice or Upcoming Event to share?

Contact Eric Ross Tashia J. Clemons

202-366-3975 202-366-1569

Eric.Ross@dot.gov Tashia.Clemons@dot.gov

FHWA Transportation Performance Management michael.nesbitt@dot.gov

Questions?

Thank You!

www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm