trends shaping sustainable land use in the next decade

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The following presentation was prepared by UrbanGreen ® of San Francisco, CA for presentation in Honolulu District Council of ULI on 11 December 2012 This copy of the presentation is shared to advance discussion of sustainability and more responsible development patterns. Reuse - in whole or in part - of any or all parts of this presentation should be requested prior to use. The author reserves the right to grant reuse permission based purpose. Permission can be obtained by contacting Jim Heid at jim@urbangreen.net

Urban  Land  Ins+tute  |    11  December  2011    

Trends Shaping Sustainable Land Use in the Next Decade Jim Heid, FASLA

©  All  Rights  Reserved,    UrbanGreen    2012  

01 Why Are We Here?

The ‘Ecological Cliff’

h@p://livingplaneDundcom.site.securepod.com/it/publ_lpr.aspx  

Seismic Human Trajectory

h@p://www.peopleandplanet.net/?lid=25993&topic=26&sec+on=33  

A Disrupted Industry

 Do Real Estate?

“..all land and improvements that are immovable” Webster’s Dictionary

Shape the Built Environment?

“ manmade surroundings that provide the setting for human activity ” Wikipedia

02 Where Have We Been

“Sustainable development is a journey, not a destination.”

Sustainability 1.0: 1987 – 1995

DEFINING ü  Principles  and  Pla+tudes  ü  Theories  and  White  Papers  ü  The  Call  to  Ac+on    

“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

Bruntland  Commission,  1987    

Sustainability 2.0: 1996 – 2005

ORGANIZING ü  Checklists  and  Ra+ng  Methods  ü  The  Arms  Race  for  Bragging  Rights  ü  Technology  and  Added  Cost    

+  

Envisions   Informs  Defines  and  Measures  

2030  Plans  

Development  Code  

Pearls  Design  System  

Conserva9on  Development  Guidelines  

Urban    Braille  

Roofscapes  Guidelines  

Streetscape  Design    Manual  

RANGE  OF  ESTIDAMA  

So…..what really matters?

LEED Registered Projects By State

0  

1,000  

2,000  

3,000  

4,000  

5,000  

6,000  

7,000  

California   Oregon   Washington   Hawaii  

Source:  USGBC  

Projects  Per  Capita    Hawai’i:  2.23  Oregon:    2.11  Washington:  1.93  California:    1.69    (per  10,000  Popula+on)  Source:  UrbanGreen  

Sustainability 3.0: 2005-2010

MEASURING ü  Carbon  as  the  IRR  of  Sustainability  ü  Tes+ng  ROI  Against  Benefits  ü  Black  Box  Evalua+on  Methods  

h@p://images.sciencedaily.com  

Connecting the dots.

Sustainability 4.0: 2010+

CONNECTING ü  Stacking  Ac+ons  Yield  Big  Benefits  ü  Invisible  Sustainability    ü  What  Works  and  Is  Livable  

Seeing The Whole

Streets and Stormwater

Density and GHG

Source:  Centers  for  Disease  Control  

Obesity and Community Form

Contributes to the environment, region and surrounding communities;

Healthy systems, natural and man-made;

Inter-generational and demographically diverse;

Carbon neutral at a minimum, carbon negative at best;

Memorable and enduring quality of place;

Evolutionary framework that is flexible and adaptable;

Economically successful – both community and enterprise;

Evolves governance from the community;

Openly shares lessons, so others can build on its success.

Singular Definition to Integrated Hallmarks

Source:  UrbanGreen  for  the  Urban  Land  Ins+tute  Tradi+on  PAS,  2008  

“….if we are to remain competitive into the 21st century, we must learn to think in new ways, to ask new questions, and seek new responses to the emerging issues that are shaping the industry.

The Ecology of Development, Urban Land Institute 1997

03 What Are We Learning?

#1:The Value Conundrum

Is There Value in Sustainability?

“….there has been a Responsibility Value Premium in offices, apartments and retail caused by higher NOIs and/or lower cap rates. Higher NOI was from higher rents, occupancy, and/or lower expenses”

Gary Pivo | Jeffrey Fischer

Income, Value and Returns of Socially Responsible Office Properties

www.walkscore.com  

Source: Johnson Reid

Biggest Impediment? No Value

0.0%   5.0%   10.0%   15.0%   20.0%   25.0%   30.0%  

Regulators Make it Too Difficult

Capital Providers do not Ascribe Value

Lack of End User Premium

Too Many Conflicting Standards

Current Economics of Industry

Lack of Enterprise Leadership

Source:  UrbanGreen  Index  V12.1  

Why Do It? To Add Value

Source:  UrbanGreen  Index  V12.1  

0.0%   5.0%   10.0%   15.0%   20.0%   25.0%  

Add Value

Improve Performance

Market Differentiator

Required by Local Regulations

Entitlement Strategy

Required by Investors

Motivates our Team

Branding Strategy

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

Add Value

Improve Performance

Market Differentiator

Required by Local Regulations

Entitlement Strategy

Required by Investors

Motivates our Team

Branding Strategy

Hawaii

National

Why Do It? To Add Value

#2: The Regulatory Impediment:

How do we Make Right – Easy?

Diminished Sustainability + Increased Costs

Envisioning   En+tlement   Execu+on  

The Cost of Misaligned Regulations

Source:UrbanGreen    Index  Volume  12.1  

Biggest Impediment to Greater Adoption?

0.0%   5.0%   10.0%   15.0%   20.0%   25.0%   30.0%   35.0%  

Regulators Make it Too Difficult

Capital Providers do not Ascribe Value

Lack of End User Premium

Too Many Conflicting Standards

Current Economics of Industry

Lack of Enterprise Leadership

Hawaii  

Na+onal  

Source:  Roadmap  for  the  Integrated  Design  Process,  BC  Green  Building  Roundtable  

New Solutions Requires New Models

#3: The Capital Gap

Is Reduced Risk in an Uncertain Future Worth Something?

Source:  CoreLogic/  Las  Vegas  Sun  

04 Trends Worth Knowing

Some Common Themes

Now   Then  

Thriving     VS.     Sustainable  Healthy  Community   VS.   Planned  Community  Climate  Adapta+on   VS.   Climate  Change  

Mobility  +  Accessibility   VS.   Level  of  Service  Sharing     VS.   Owning  

Facilita+ng   VS.   Developing  

Trend One: Changing How We Think:

Sharing Everything

Going Beyond the Box

Source:  h@p://daily.sightline.org/2009/03/18/char+ng-­‐how-­‐ci+es-­‐are-­‐greener/  

The Search for Something Deeper..

Sharing Everything – Regional Collaboration

Sharing Everything – Partnerships

Sharing Everything – Development Risk

HOPE SF Principles:

1.  Ensure No Loss of Public Housing

2. Create an Economically Integrated Community

3. Maximize the Creation of New Affordable Housing

4. Involve Residents in the Highest Levels of Participation in Entire Project

5. Provide Economic Opportunities Through the Rebuilding Process

6. Integrate Process with Neighborhood Improvement Revitalization Plans

7. Create Environmentally Sustainable and Accessible Communities

8. Build a Strong Sense of Community.

Image  Cred

it:  Brid

ge  Hou

sing  –  Va

n  Meter  W

illiams  P

ollack  

Sharing Everything - Housing

h@p://www.cohousing.org  

Sharing Everything – Transportation

Sharing Everything - Offices

h@p://wework.com  

Sharing Everything = Living Smaller

h@p://www.smartspace.net/loca+ons/soma/  

Sharing Everything – Social Space

Source:  Panoramic  Interests  

Trend Two: Communicating Results

More + Complex Information

Measuring Greenhouse Gas

Measuring Building Performance

“….  CycleTracks uses smartphone GPS support to record users' bicycle trip routes and times, and display maps of their rides, in order to help transportation planners make informed decisions about bicycle use in the community…..”

h@p://www.sfcta.org/content/category/12/97/483/  

Measuring Behavior

Trend Three: Integrating What We Do

Soft + Squishy Matters

“….we are not in the home building business, we are in the human habitat business.”

John Knott, CEO Noisette

Emergence of the Food Desert

Farmer’s Markets as one Solution

Source:  USDA  

CSA’s and Community Gardens

Localizing the Food Connection

Making Food an Experience

Placemaking with Food

Changing Lives with Food

“UrbanGreen® is dedicated to real estate development

as a constructive endeavor that positively shapes the

urban, rural and human environment.”

Questions? Comments? | jim@urbangreen.net  

Protected Presentation Content The  following  presenta+on  was  prepared  by  UrbanGreen  ®  of  San  Francisco,  CA  for  presenta+on  at  the  Missouri  Area  Regional  Council  on  2  May  2012.    Permission  to  reuse  any  or  all  parts  of  this  presenta+on  should  be  requested  before  reproducing,  extrac+ng  or  copying  –  in  whole  or  in  part  –any  component  of  this  presenta+on.        Permission  can  be  obtained  by  contac+ng  Jim  Heid  at  jim@urbangreen.net