trends shaping sustainable land use in the next decade
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December presentation made to professional real estate and design organizations in Hawaii on the trends driving sustainable development.TRANSCRIPT
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The following presentation was prepared by UrbanGreen ® of San Francisco, CA for presentation in Honolulu District Council of ULI on 11 December 2012 This copy of the presentation is shared to advance discussion of sustainability and more responsible development patterns. Reuse - in whole or in part - of any or all parts of this presentation should be requested prior to use. The author reserves the right to grant reuse permission based purpose. Permission can be obtained by contacting Jim Heid at [email protected]
Urban Land Ins+tute | 11 December 2011
Trends Shaping Sustainable Land Use in the Next Decade Jim Heid, FASLA
© All Rights Reserved, UrbanGreen 2012
01 Why Are We Here?
The ‘Ecological Cliff’
h@p://livingplaneDundcom.site.securepod.com/it/publ_lpr.aspx
Seismic Human Trajectory
h@p://www.peopleandplanet.net/?lid=25993&topic=26&sec+on=33
A Disrupted Industry
Do Real Estate?
“..all land and improvements that are immovable” Webster’s Dictionary
Shape the Built Environment?
“ manmade surroundings that provide the setting for human activity ” Wikipedia
02 Where Have We Been
“Sustainable development is a journey, not a destination.”
Sustainability 1.0: 1987 – 1995
DEFINING ü Principles and Pla+tudes ü Theories and White Papers ü The Call to Ac+on
“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”
Bruntland Commission, 1987
Sustainability 2.0: 1996 – 2005
ORGANIZING ü Checklists and Ra+ng Methods ü The Arms Race for Bragging Rights ü Technology and Added Cost
+
Envisions Informs Defines and Measures
2030 Plans
Development Code
Pearls Design System
Conserva9on Development Guidelines
Urban Braille
Roofscapes Guidelines
Streetscape Design Manual
RANGE OF ESTIDAMA
So…..what really matters?
LEED Registered Projects By State
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
California Oregon Washington Hawaii
Source: USGBC
Projects Per Capita Hawai’i: 2.23 Oregon: 2.11 Washington: 1.93 California: 1.69 (per 10,000 Popula+on) Source: UrbanGreen
Sustainability 3.0: 2005-2010
MEASURING ü Carbon as the IRR of Sustainability ü Tes+ng ROI Against Benefits ü Black Box Evalua+on Methods
h@p://images.sciencedaily.com
Connecting the dots.
Sustainability 4.0: 2010+
CONNECTING ü Stacking Ac+ons Yield Big Benefits ü Invisible Sustainability ü What Works and Is Livable
Seeing The Whole
Streets and Stormwater
Density and GHG
Source: Centers for Disease Control
Obesity and Community Form
Contributes to the environment, region and surrounding communities;
Healthy systems, natural and man-made;
Inter-generational and demographically diverse;
Carbon neutral at a minimum, carbon negative at best;
Memorable and enduring quality of place;
Evolutionary framework that is flexible and adaptable;
Economically successful – both community and enterprise;
Evolves governance from the community;
Openly shares lessons, so others can build on its success.
Singular Definition to Integrated Hallmarks
Source: UrbanGreen for the Urban Land Ins+tute Tradi+on PAS, 2008
“….if we are to remain competitive into the 21st century, we must learn to think in new ways, to ask new questions, and seek new responses to the emerging issues that are shaping the industry.
The Ecology of Development, Urban Land Institute 1997
03 What Are We Learning?
#1:The Value Conundrum
Is There Value in Sustainability?
“….there has been a Responsibility Value Premium in offices, apartments and retail caused by higher NOIs and/or lower cap rates. Higher NOI was from higher rents, occupancy, and/or lower expenses”
Gary Pivo | Jeffrey Fischer
Income, Value and Returns of Socially Responsible Office Properties
www.walkscore.com
Source: Johnson Reid
Biggest Impediment? No Value
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Regulators Make it Too Difficult
Capital Providers do not Ascribe Value
Lack of End User Premium
Too Many Conflicting Standards
Current Economics of Industry
Lack of Enterprise Leadership
Source: UrbanGreen Index V12.1
Why Do It? To Add Value
Source: UrbanGreen Index V12.1
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Add Value
Improve Performance
Market Differentiator
Required by Local Regulations
Entitlement Strategy
Required by Investors
Motivates our Team
Branding Strategy
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Add Value
Improve Performance
Market Differentiator
Required by Local Regulations
Entitlement Strategy
Required by Investors
Motivates our Team
Branding Strategy
Hawaii
National
Why Do It? To Add Value
#2: The Regulatory Impediment:
How do we Make Right – Easy?
Diminished Sustainability + Increased Costs
Envisioning En+tlement Execu+on
The Cost of Misaligned Regulations
Source:UrbanGreen Index Volume 12.1
Biggest Impediment to Greater Adoption?
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Regulators Make it Too Difficult
Capital Providers do not Ascribe Value
Lack of End User Premium
Too Many Conflicting Standards
Current Economics of Industry
Lack of Enterprise Leadership
Hawaii
Na+onal
Source: Roadmap for the Integrated Design Process, BC Green Building Roundtable
New Solutions Requires New Models
#3: The Capital Gap
Is Reduced Risk in an Uncertain Future Worth Something?
Source: CoreLogic/ Las Vegas Sun
04 Trends Worth Knowing
Some Common Themes
Now Then
Thriving VS. Sustainable Healthy Community VS. Planned Community Climate Adapta+on VS. Climate Change
Mobility + Accessibility VS. Level of Service Sharing VS. Owning
Facilita+ng VS. Developing
Trend One: Changing How We Think:
Sharing Everything
Going Beyond the Box
Source: h@p://daily.sightline.org/2009/03/18/char+ng-‐how-‐ci+es-‐are-‐greener/
The Search for Something Deeper..
Sharing Everything – Regional Collaboration
Sharing Everything – Partnerships
Sharing Everything – Development Risk
HOPE SF Principles:
1. Ensure No Loss of Public Housing
2. Create an Economically Integrated Community
3. Maximize the Creation of New Affordable Housing
4. Involve Residents in the Highest Levels of Participation in Entire Project
5. Provide Economic Opportunities Through the Rebuilding Process
6. Integrate Process with Neighborhood Improvement Revitalization Plans
7. Create Environmentally Sustainable and Accessible Communities
8. Build a Strong Sense of Community.
Image Cred
it: Brid
ge Hou
sing – Va
n Meter W
illiams P
ollack
Sharing Everything - Housing
h@p://www.cohousing.org
Sharing Everything – Transportation
Sharing Everything - Offices
h@p://wework.com
Sharing Everything = Living Smaller
h@p://www.smartspace.net/loca+ons/soma/
Sharing Everything – Social Space
Source: Panoramic Interests
Trend Two: Communicating Results
More + Complex Information
Measuring Greenhouse Gas
Measuring Building Performance
“…. CycleTracks uses smartphone GPS support to record users' bicycle trip routes and times, and display maps of their rides, in order to help transportation planners make informed decisions about bicycle use in the community…..”
h@p://www.sfcta.org/content/category/12/97/483/
Measuring Behavior
Trend Three: Integrating What We Do
Soft + Squishy Matters
“….we are not in the home building business, we are in the human habitat business.”
John Knott, CEO Noisette
Emergence of the Food Desert
Farmer’s Markets as one Solution
Source: USDA
CSA’s and Community Gardens
Localizing the Food Connection
Making Food an Experience
Placemaking with Food
Changing Lives with Food
“UrbanGreen® is dedicated to real estate development
as a constructive endeavor that positively shapes the
urban, rural and human environment.”
Questions? Comments? | [email protected]
Protected Presentation Content The following presenta+on was prepared by UrbanGreen ® of San Francisco, CA for presenta+on at the Missouri Area Regional Council on 2 May 2012. Permission to reuse any or all parts of this presenta+on should be requested before reproducing, extrac+ng or copying – in whole or in part –any component of this presenta+on. Permission can be obtained by contac+ng Jim Heid at [email protected]