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10 Mega Trends that are (re)shaping our world
Simon Atkinson
1 Mega trends …that are (re) shaping the world
1. Dynamic Populations
The Global population continues to grow
2016 7,431,209
2050 9,725,148
1976 4,136,542
Powered by high birth rates in some countries
6,9
6,2
6,1
6,1
6,0
6,0
5,9
5,8
2,5
2,4
2,2
2,1
2,1
2,0
1,9
1,8
1,8
1,6
1,6
1,6
1,4
1,4
Niger
Mali
Burundi
Somalia
Uganda
Burkina Faso
Zambia
Malawi
India
UAE
South Africa
France
Turkey
United States
United Kingdom
Brazil
Australia
Russia
Canada
China
Japan
Germany
Big Changes Ahead.…
312 338
363
383
401
160
210
273
351
440
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Estimated population from 2010 to 2050 in U.S. and Nigeria
MILLION Million Nigeria
Million U.S.
But the global population is getting older
29
19
27
37 40
32
40
25
41 41
46
37
Asia Africa Latin America North America Europe Oceania
Median age (years), Estimates for 2010 and 2050
2010 2050
In 1950, life expectancy in China was 40 years.
By 2050, this will have risen to 80 years.
2. Growing Opportunity and Growing Inequality
2009 6.8 billion 1.8 billion
2020 7.7 billion 3.2 billion
2030 8.3 billion 4.9 billion
Global population and global middle class population
By 2030, 66% of the world’s middle classes will be living in Asia
There are more people living inside this circle
than outside of it
...which should be no surprise to anyone!
78%
48%
47%
46%
41%
41%
41%
37%
34%
32%
30%
30%
30%
27%
26%
24%
22%
21%
16%
16%
12%
China
Brazil
Turkey
India
Japan
Russia
S Africa
Total
Argentina
Sweden
Australia
Germany
Poland
S Korea
US
Canada
GB
Italy
Spain
France
Belgium
% of under 30s who expect life to be better
Growing Opportunity? Young in developing countries are optimistic
Central Asia
100 98
Central & Eastern Europe
98 97
East Asia & the Pacific
95 82
Latin America & the Caribbean
93 86
Arab States
79 55
South & West Asia
70 47
Sub-Saharan Africa
66 53
World
86 76
Objective (nearly) achieved? Adult Literacy rates 1990-2015
50% Internet usage: the point where the web starts to have a real impact on economic development
60% of the global population has no internet access
0
200.000.000
400.000.000
600.000.000
800.000.000
1.000.000.000
1.200.000.000
1.400.000.000
1.600.000.000
Internet Users (2016) Non-Users (internetless)
91%
86%
84%
84%
83%
81%
78%
77%
77%
74%
73%
72%
68%
68%
67%
67%
64%
64%
63%
60%
47%
China
Spain
Turkey
Germany
Russia
S Korea
Italy
Brazil
India
Total
Belgium
Poland
France
Canada
GB
Argentina
S Africa
Australia
Sweden
Japan
US
Growing Inequality? It worries us % agree Having large differences in income and wealth is bad for society overall
3. Megacities
% of the World’s population living in urban areas
1960 1993 2014 2050
34 44
54 66
50,000 a day
The urban population is increasing by...
1.5 million a month (a city the size of Prague)
18 million a year (the population of Chile)
Africa Will gradually replace Asia as the region with highest urban growth rate
Africa Lagos 21 million Cairo 15 million Kinshasa 9 million
City Living A choice rather than a necessity?
South Korea
Poland
South Africa
Turkey
Russia
Italy
Spain
Brazil
Germany
Sweden
Canada
US
France
Australia
GB
Argentina
Japan
Belgium
India
China
Have to live in cities?
Want to live in cities?
Tokyo 26.6
15.9
10.7
9.8
9.6
8.9
8.7
7.9
7.6
6.6
35.5
21.9
21.6
20.5
19.9
18.6
17.2
17.0
16.8
16.8
1975 2015
Tokyo New York
Mexico City Osaka-Kobe
Sao Paulo Los Angeles
Buenos Aires Calcutta
Rio de Janeiro Moscow
Calcutta
New York
Mexico City Sao Paulo
Mumbai
Delhi
Shanghai
Jakarta
Dhaka
Tokyo New York
Mexico City Osaka-Kobe
Sao Paulo Los Angeles
Buenos Aires Calcutta
Rio de Janeiro Moscow
4. Increasing connectedness and decreasing privacy
Digital/ terrestrial
TV
Mobile phone
ads
Mobile phone aps
Social networking
profiles
In game advertising
PR
Online video
Homepage takeovers
Search ads
Direct marketing
Micro blogging
Satellite TV
Online radio
Digital radio
Press
Direct marketing
Email marketing
Sponsorship
Analogue radio
Augmented reality
Viral video
Direct mail Digital
Billboards
Posters Online banners
Cinema
Direct marketing
Microsites
Now
Direct marketing
TV/ Cinema
Radio Press
Posters/ Billboards
1980s
60% of the global population has no internet access
83% of global internet users say access to the web should be a “basic human right”
79%
79%
77%
73%
71%
70%
70%
68%
68%
66%
65%
64%
63%
63%
63%
63%
62%
59%
56%
51%
47%
France
Spain
Brazil
Poland
Turkey
Argentina
S Africa
Belgium
China
Total
Canada
S Korea
Australia
India
Italy
GB
U.S.
Germany
Russia
Sweden
Japan
% agree I worry that companies can access my posts on social networking sites for information about goods and services I have purchased
“The level of interrupt, the sort of overwhelming rapidity of information… is in fact affecting cognition” Eric Schmidt - Google
‘Facebook Home could change our brains’ Susan Greenfield - Neuroscientist
In China say they are ‘constantly looking at screens these days’
And is it changing our behaviour? 78%
“The level of interrupt, the sort of overwhelming rapidity of information… is in fact affecting cognition” Eric Schmidt - Google
‘Facebook Home could change our brains’ Susan Greenfield - Neuroscientist
Of Chinese under 30s feel “restless or uneasy” if they don’t look at their phone for an hour
And is it changing our behaviour? 79%
5. Healthier and sicker
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America and theCaribbean
Northern America
1975 2100
Global life expectancy is rising…
2015
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America and theCaribbean
Northern America
But there is still work to do…
91% now have access to improved drinking water
2,000 child deaths
from diarrhoea in 2000
<1,000 today
1 in 3 of the World’s population do not have access to adequate sanitation facilities
Millennium TARGET MISSED 700,000,000 people
Uncertainty #1 Can our healthcare systems cope?
76%
67%
65%
64%
63%
63%
59%
58%
57%
53%
50%
50%
47%
43%
35%
34%
26%
19%
10%
9%
Belgium
GB
US
Australia
Sweden
France
S Africa
India
Canada
Argentina
Spain
Germany
Total
Japan
Turkey
S Korea
Italy
Brazil
Poland
Russia
Uncertainty #1 Can our healthcare systems cope?
% good How would you rate the quality of healthcare that you and your family have access to in …?
Uncertainty #2 Our own lifestyle choices
Most of the world's population now lives in countries where being overweight or obese kills more people than being underweight
Turkey: we think 32% of us “are overweight or obese”
Turkey 32% 65% are overweight or obese
Uncertainty #3 Climate change
Uncertainty #3 Climate change
Globally, 70% agree there’s solid evidence the Earth is getting warmer
91%
84%
83%
81%
80%
79%
78%
77%
75%
75%
73%
73%
71%
70%
67%
65%
60%
59%
59%
59%
China
Italy
Argentina
Turkey
S Africa
India
Brazil
S Korea
Germany
France
Total
Belgium
Russia
Spain
Canada
Sweden
Australia
Poland
GB
Japan
Uncertainty #3 Climate change
% agree We are heading for environmental disaster unless we change our habits quickly
6. Rise of individual choice and fracturing of the mass market
2016
1976
Where was Apple 40 years ago…?
185
49
33
32
31
28
19
14
14
11
10
9
8
8
8
8
8
6
US
Japan
Germany
UK
France
China
Switzerland
Canada
South Korea
Netherlands
Spain
Brazil
Russia
Italy
Australia
Italy
Sweden
India
But big brands are not always American
Brand Finance Global 500 # home country of each brand
The mass market: what we are used to is changing
The mass market: what we are used to is changing Example #1: Motoring
The mass market: what we are used to is changing
Example #2: Business Presentations
A slide seen in business strategy presentations around the world...
A slide seen in business strategy presentations around the world...
7. Rise of the individual and decline of social cohesion
The “traditional” family structures are changing
1970
No of marriages per 1,000 population (OECD Countries)
8 2015 5
Single person households are the fastest-growing household profile in the period to 2030
Single-person Households: the fastest growing household profile in the period to 2030
Asia Middle East & Africa
Latin America
Australasia Eastern Europe
North America
Western Europe
9 11 11
24 27 28
31
Cause for optimism? societies are not breaking down
“Crime against the person and against property is falling in most rich countries”
The Economist
Drug possession
Drug Trafficking
Homicide
Burglary
Vehicle theft
Robbery
Rape
High income
countries
Middle income
countries
Lower income
countries
% change in different types of crime, 2003-2013
+50%
-50%
But crime is RISING in developing markets
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!
8. Cultural convergence and increasing extremes
Most native speakers
Chinese Hindi-Urdu English Spanish
1.4b
588m 527m
Arabic
389m 276m
Cultural convergence
Case Study: Those whose jobs
involve interactions with other countries
English
Spanish
Mandarin
French
German
Arabic
Hindi
Italian
Russian
Portugese
Japanese
Cantonese
Polish
Indonesian
Turkish
Korean
Swedish
Urdu
Languages spoken with colleagues from other countries
67%
5%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Case Study: Spending our free time at the movies
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Jaws
The Rocky Horror Picture Show
One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
The Wilderness Family
Rollerball
Lucky Lady
Rooster Cogburn ... and the Lady
The Streetfighter
At Long Last Love
Monty Python and the Holy Grail
Star Wars 7
Jurassic World
Furious 7
The Avengers: age of Ultron
Minions
Spectre
Inside Out
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2
The Martian
English language continues to dominate 1975 & 2015
Cultural diversity: Is religion uniting or dividing the World?
98%
94%
90%
89%
88%
85%
84%
82%
80%
74%
71%
67%
62%
61%
61%
58%
57%
55%
53%
53%
52%
India
Turkey
S Africa
Brazil
Poland
Argentina
US
Russia
Italy
Canada
Total
Australia
Germany
Belgium
Spain
S Korea
GB
Japan
France
Sweden
China
Most people in the world today identify with a religion
Globally: 65% agree People have more things in common than things that make them different
Turkey:
81% agree People have more things in common than things that make them different
Globally: 77% agree We live in an increasingly dangerous world
Turkey:
89% agree We live in an increasingly dangerous world
Globally: 56% agree There are too many immigrants
Turkey:
79% agree There are too many immigrants
9. Always on versus off the grid
66%
66%
60%
53%
52%
49%
49%
46%
46%
44%
42%
40%
40%
39%
36%
36%
33%
29%
26%
25%
S Africa
Russia
India
Turkey
S Korea
Argentina
Canada
Total
US
Brazil
Poland
Australia
Germany
GB
Spain
Belgium
France
Japan
Sweden
Italy
% agree I feel under a lot of pressure to be successful and make money
88%
85%
85%
84%
84%
82%
82%
82%
82%
80%
80%
78%
77%
77%
77%
75%
75%
75%
74%
71%
Spain
Canada
Italy
France
Belgium
Germany
GB
Sweden
Australia
Total
Turkey
S Africa
Argentina
US
Poland
India
S Korea
Russia
Japan
Brazil
% agree It is more important to have a good work-life balance than to have a successful career
1/5 global employees now work remotely, at least some of the time
Hours worked per year
2000 2014
1,845 1,770
In OECD countries, people are starting to work fewer hours
65% want to work for an organisation “with a powerful social conscience”
Paul Bakus, President of Corporate Affairs, Nestle
“More or less all business started out with a social purpose of some kind…
What’s been lost in recent decades is the interconnectivity between the needs of society and the innovative dynamism of business…
So the future may look more like a rediscovery of this social purpose of business”
? Maybe we will have more free time on our hands than we expect...
10. Emergence of public opinion as revolutionary force
84%
84%
82%
73%
71%
67%
61%
60%
59%
59%
59%
59%
54%
53%
52%
47%
46%
45%
43%
41%
Italy
S Africa
Spain
France
Poland
US
Argentina
Total
GB
Russia
Turkey
Brazil
India
S Korea
Belgium
Australia
Japan
Sweden
Canada
Germany
Widespread dissatisfaction with how we are governed
% dissatisfied The way the government is running the country
“The rapid growth of the precariat is producing instabilities in society.
It is a dangerous class because it is internally divided, leading to the villainisation of migrants and other vulnerable groups.
And its members may be susceptible to the siren calls of political extremism”
1 Mega trends …that are (re) shaping the world
Changing our behaviour?
Ageing people?
Necessity not choice?
New illnesses, tired planet?
The left behind?
Work-life balance?
Will we enjoy the ride?
More tension?
Where are we heading?
How safe will we feel?
Thank you @SimonMAtkinson [email protected]
