ukcp09 predictions for northern ireland

UK Climate Projections

UKCP09

Predictions for Northern Ireland

Provided by:Funded by:

Key Findings- UKCP09

• 4 areas

– Observed Trends

– UK wide

– Administrative Regions

– Sea Level Rise

Administrative Regions- UKCP09

• 3 emission scenarios• Low, medium and high

• 3 time periods• 2020, 2050 and 2080

• Regionalised

• 9 predictions

UKCP09

• Winter mean temperature

• Summer mean temperature

• Summer mean daily maximum temperature

• Summer mean daily minimum temperature

• Annual mean precipitation

• Winter mean precipitation

• Summer mean precipitation

2020 Low Emissions

• Annual precipitation

• Mean is 0%

• Very unlikely to be less than –3%

• Very unlikely to be more than 3%

• A wider range of uncertainty is –3% to 3%.

2020 Low Emissions

• Winter precipitation

• Mean is 3%

• Very unlikely to be less than –4%

• Very unlikely to be more than 10%

• A wider range of uncertainty is –4% to 10%.

2020 Low Emissions

• Summer precipitation

• Mean is –5%

• Very unlikely to be less than –16%

• Very unlikely to be more than 7%

• A wider range of uncertainty is –17% to 10%.

2080 High Emissions

• Annual precipitation

• Mean is –1%

• Very unlikely to be less than –6%

• Very unlikely to be more than 5%.

• A wider range of uncertainty is –6% to 5%.

2080 High Emissions

• Winter precipitation

• Mean is 18%

• Very unlikely to be less than 6%

• Very unlikely to be more than 34%

• A wider range of uncertainty is 2% to 34%.

2080 High Emissions

• Summer precipitation

• Mean is –19%

• Very unlikely to be less than –39%

• Very unlikely to be more than 4%

• A wider range of uncertainty is –39% to 6%.

Sea Level Rise- UKCP09

• 3 emission scenarios• Low, medium and high

• 10 year time periods• Up to 2095

• 4 Centres• London, Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast

• High-plus-plus (H++)

Belfast Sea level Rise

24.531.640.32095

22.829.437.62090

19.625.332.32080

16.521.427.42070

13.717.822.92060

11.114.518.62050

8.711.414.72040

6.68.611.12030

4.667.82020

2.83.84.92010

1.31.72.32000

LowMedium High

24.531.640.32095

22.829.437.62090

19.625.332.32080

16.521.427.42070

13.717.822.92060

11.114.518.62050

8.711.414.72040

6.68.611.12030

4.667.82020

2.83.84.92010

1.31.72.32000

LowMedium High

Sea level changes in cm with

respect to 1990 levels.

The UK H++ mean sea level

rise estimate is 93 cm to

approximately 190 cm.