ukcp09 predictions for northern ireland
DESCRIPTION
Extract from UKCP09 for Northern IrelandTRANSCRIPT
UK Climate Projections
UKCP09
Predictions for Northern Ireland
Provided by:Funded by:
Key Findings- UKCP09
• 4 areas
– Observed Trends
– UK wide
– Administrative Regions
– Sea Level Rise
Administrative Regions- UKCP09
• 3 emission scenarios• Low, medium and high
• 3 time periods• 2020, 2050 and 2080
• Regionalised
• 9 predictions
UKCP09
• Winter mean temperature
• Summer mean temperature
• Summer mean daily maximum temperature
• Summer mean daily minimum temperature
• Annual mean precipitation
• Winter mean precipitation
• Summer mean precipitation
2020 Low Emissions
• Annual precipitation
• Mean is 0%
• Very unlikely to be less than –3%
• Very unlikely to be more than 3%
• A wider range of uncertainty is –3% to 3%.
2020 Low Emissions
• Winter precipitation
• Mean is 3%
• Very unlikely to be less than –4%
• Very unlikely to be more than 10%
• A wider range of uncertainty is –4% to 10%.
2020 Low Emissions
• Summer precipitation
• Mean is –5%
• Very unlikely to be less than –16%
• Very unlikely to be more than 7%
• A wider range of uncertainty is –17% to 10%.
2080 High Emissions
• Annual precipitation
• Mean is –1%
• Very unlikely to be less than –6%
• Very unlikely to be more than 5%.
• A wider range of uncertainty is –6% to 5%.
2080 High Emissions
• Winter precipitation
• Mean is 18%
• Very unlikely to be less than 6%
• Very unlikely to be more than 34%
• A wider range of uncertainty is 2% to 34%.
2080 High Emissions
• Summer precipitation
• Mean is –19%
• Very unlikely to be less than –39%
• Very unlikely to be more than 4%
• A wider range of uncertainty is –39% to 6%.
Sea Level Rise- UKCP09
• 3 emission scenarios• Low, medium and high
• 10 year time periods• Up to 2095
• 4 Centres• London, Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast
• High-plus-plus (H++)
Belfast Sea level Rise
24.531.640.32095
22.829.437.62090
19.625.332.32080
16.521.427.42070
13.717.822.92060
11.114.518.62050
8.711.414.72040
6.68.611.12030
4.667.82020
2.83.84.92010
1.31.72.32000
LowMedium High
24.531.640.32095
22.829.437.62090
19.625.332.32080
16.521.427.42070
13.717.822.92060
11.114.518.62050
8.711.414.72040
6.68.611.12030
4.667.82020
2.83.84.92010
1.31.72.32000
LowMedium High
Sea level changes in cm with
respect to 1990 levels.
The UK H++ mean sea level
rise estimate is 93 cm to
approximately 190 cm.