ukcp18: northern ireland climate projections explained · projections explained wednesday 22nd may...
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@ClimateNI #CNIevent
www.climatenorthernireland.org.uk
UKCP18: Northern Ireland Climate Projections Explained
Wednesday 22nd MayBelfast City Hall
13:30 – 16:45
Dr Teresa McGrath
School of Natural & Built Environment
22nd May 2019
Energy Modelling of Domestic Buildings
Climate impact on built environment• 80% reduction in CO2 by 2050 (Climate Change Act, 2008)
• 25% of CO2 emissions come from our domestic buildings
• 60-80% of 2050 housing stock is standing today
• Energy rating of D – Fuel poverty at 22%
• How will changing climate impact the built environment?
• Modelled 5 case study properties in Northern Ireland using
UKCP09 projections - 2030, 2050 & 2080.
• A1F1 (High Emissions) - Probability percentiles – 10, 50,
90.
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Climate Change Projections in Flood Risk Management
Alan Reddick - Head of Capital Projects Unit, Major Projects - DfI Rivers
Climate Northern Ireland - UKCP18 Event – 22nd May 2019
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Climate Change Allowances in Northern Ireland• Technical Guidance in consideration of flood risk.
• Climate change allowances for river & coastal-related impacts based on UKCP09 research.
• Single allowances for all NI due to small size & UKCP09 information not vary significantly across Province.
• 2080 epoch to base allowances for Climate Change for Development Planning and Flood Risk Management purposes.
• Guidance to be reviewed against UKCP18 projections.
https://www.infrastructure-ni.gov.uk/publications/technical-flood-risk-guidance-relation-allowances-climate-change-northern-ireland
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Climate Change Allowances in Northern Ireland
• Fluvial• Design Standard – 1:100 year
• Single CC allowance of +20% flow applied to estimated Present Day peak flow
• Up to 600mm freeboard in addition to CC Allowances
• Example – Newcastle Flood Alleviation Scheme
• Tidal• Design Standard – 1:200 year
• Coastal Defence Design – 2080 (med emissions) with 95%ile Relative Sea Level
• Up to 600mm freeboard in addition to CC Allowances
• Example – Belfast Tidal Flood Alleviation Scheme
Derry City & Strabane District Council Climate Programme
Cathy Burns
CLIMATE Programme Manager
May 2019
CLIMATE Programme
Project
• June 2017-May 2020
• €1.3m INTERREG VB transnational project
• DCSDC Lead Partner
• International expertise & best practice
Main Outputs
• Local Authority Climate Adaptation Plans
• Scientific Research Publications
• Adaptation Planning Model & Toolkit
Service Area Fact Sheets
Workshop Exercise
Templates
Stakeholder Engagement
Guidance
Workshop Agendas
Resource record
Case Study Database
Action Plans
Working Group Terms of
Reference
Toolkit
Model
Step 2 • Workshop 2 – Explore current climate
impact & identify existing adaptation measures
• Workshop 3 – Identify future vulnerability • Screen for future impacts –
CLIMATE DATA • Build Risk Register
Evidence & Data Analysis
1. Climate Impact Profile
2. Climate Data UKCP18 Projections NI Flood Maps Academic Research
3. GIS & Vulnerability Analysis
Climate Data and Adaptation Planning In Practice
Communication, Engagement & Policy
Stakeholder Engagement
PR & Communication
Climate Team & Working Group
Policy & Plans • Local Development Planning
• Regeneration & Master planning
• Emergency & Severe Weather Planning
• Consultation Responses
Ulster University School of Nursing Emergency Planning
Climate Change Conference
Climate Working Group
Contact Details
Cathy Burns – Programme Manager
Derry City & Strabane District Council
Telephone : 028 71 253253
Web: http://climate.interreg-npa.eu/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ClimateNPA/
Twitter: @ClimateNPA
Deeper adaptation review of farming practices required
• What varieties of crops?
• What crops?
• What type of farming and where?
• Role of specific practices eg agroforestry?
Climate change (and associated adaptation measures) cannotbe looked at in isolation-Interaction with
• Actions to reduce ammonia emissions?
• Actions to meet Water Framework Directive requirements?
What should the roles of DAERA, UFU, AFBI, CAFRE and processors be?
Further adaptation review
Adaptation measures and UKCP18
• Adaptation is local
• UKCP18 will add particular value when used in conjunction with other tools such as LiDAR