understanding earthquake disaster risk reduction a primer
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UNDERSTANDING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
RISK REDUCTION
A PRIMER
EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES
EARTHQUAKE PUBLIC POLICY IS A LEGAL MANDATE, A PLAN,
OR A WAY OF WORKING TOGETHER TO REDUCE
EARTHQUAKE RISK WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE
COMMUNITY’S PUBLIC & PRIVATE ASSETS.
EARTHQUAKE PUBLIC POLICY IS A LEGAL MANDATE, A PLAN,
OR A WAY OF WORKING TOGETHER TO REDUCE
EARTHQUAKE RISK WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE
COMMUNITY’S PUBLIC & PRIVATE ASSETS.
PUBLIC POLICIES INTEGRATE TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG-TERM BENEFIT
OF PEOPLE, PROPERTY, INFRASTRUCTURE, GOVERNMENT,
AND ENTERPRISE IN THE COMMUNITY
PUBLIC POLICIES INTEGRATE TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG-TERM BENEFIT
OF PEOPLE, PROPERTY, INFRASTRUCTURE, GOVERNMENT,
AND ENTERPRISE IN THE COMMUNITY
EACH POLICY OPTION SHOULD BEGIN WITH
A VISION OF THE GOAL AND
REALISTIC STRATEGIES FOR REACHING IT.
EACH POLICY OPTION SHOULD BEGIN WITH
A VISION OF THE GOAL AND
REALISTIC STRATEGIES FOR REACHING IT.
COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
QUAKE DISASTER RISK QUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONREDUCTION
•PREVENTION/MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL
EARTHQUAKEHAZARD MODEL
SEISMICITYSEISMICITY TECTONICSETTING &
FAULTS
TECTONICSETTING &
FAULTS
IDENTIFY THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE
FAULTS
IDENTIFY THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE
FAULTS
FAULTS: SAN ANDREAS
MOTAGUA FAULT, GUATEMALA
FAULTS: DEAD SEA RIFT ZONE
FAULTS: COCOS PLATE SUBDUCTION ZONE
EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL
DISASTER AGENTS)
EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL
DISASTER AGENTS)
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
EARTHQUAKE
TSUNAMI
GROUND
SHAKING
FAULT RUPTURE
FOUNDATION FAILURE
SITE AMPLIFICATION
LIQUEFACTION
LANDSLIDES
AFTERSHOCKS
SEICHE
DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/ LOSSDAMAGE/ LOSS
DAMAGE/LOSSDAMAGE/LOSS
EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT
EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISK
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
RISK ASSESSMENT INTEGRATES RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM “DISASTER LABORATORIES,”
WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN THE
COMMUNITY’S POLITICAL PROCESS.
RISK ASSESSMENT INTEGRATES RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM “DISASTER LABORATORIES,”
WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES WITHIN THE
COMMUNITY’S POLITICAL PROCESS.
EXPOSUREMODEL
EXPOSUREMODEL
LOCATION OF STRUCTURE
LOCATION OF STRUCTURE
IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF
STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS
IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF
STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS
VULNERABILITYMODEL
VULNERABILITYMODEL
QUALITY OF DESIGN AND
CONSTRUCTION
QUALITY OF DESIGN AND
CONSTRUCTION
ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE
RESISTING SYSTEM
ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE
RESISTING SYSTEM
UNREINFO
RCED MASO
NRY, BRIC
K OR S
TONE
REINFORCED C
ONCRETE WIT
H UNREIN
FORCED WALLS
INTENSITYINTENSITY
REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS
STEEL FRAME
ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME
VV VIVI VIIVII VIIIVIII IXIX
3535
3030
2525
2020
1515
1010
55
00
MEA
N D
AM
AG
E R
ATIO
,
%
M
EA
N D
AM
AG
E R
ATIO
,
%
O
F R
EPLA
CE
MEN
T V
ALU
EO
F R
EPLA
CE
MEN
T V
ALU
E
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND
SHAKING
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND
SHAKING
SUN-DRIED BRICKS: BAM, IRAN: DECEMBER 26, 2003
RISK ASSESSMENT FOR A COMMUNITY
RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE
EARTHQUAKE: EXPOSURE: PEOPLE
BUILDING STOCK
INFRASTRUCTURE
GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS ENTERPRISE
RISK ASSESSMENT: ALGIERSRISK ASSESSMENT: ALGIERS
• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?• HAZARDS?• HOW BIG OR SEVERE?• WHAT IS AT RISK?• VULNERABILITIES?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?• HAZARDS?• HOW BIG OR SEVERE?• WHAT IS AT RISK?• VULNERABILITIES?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-
ECONOMIC IMPACTS?
ANALYSIS OF HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY OF EXPOSED ANALYSIS OF HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY OF EXPOSED ELEMENTSELEMENTS
ANALYSIS OF HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY OF EXPOSED ANALYSIS OF HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY OF EXPOSED ELEMENTSELEMENTS
EARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKE
EVENTEVENT
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
PEOPLEPROPERTYINFRASTRUCTUREGOVERNMENT AND BUSINESSENTERPRISE
EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
EXPECTED EXPECTED
LOSSLOSS
EXPECTED EXPECTED
LOSSLOSS
OUTPUT
HIGH RISK BUILDINGS
HIGH RISK BUILDINGS
HIGH RISK AREASHIGH RISK AREAS
GEOLOGIC, SOILS, AND SLOPES
GEOLOGIC, SOILS, AND SLOPES
LAND USELAND USE
CONSTRUCTION TYPES
CONSTRUCTION TYPES
SPECIAL BUILDINGS
SPECIAL BUILDINGS
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
1. DATA1. DATA 2. EVALUTION2. EVALUTION
NEEDS FOR NEEDS FOR LOSS-LOSS-
REDUCTION REDUCTION MEASURESMEASURES
DAMAGE DAMAGE INJURIESINJURIESDAMAGE DAMAGE INJURIESINJURIES
UNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISK
COLLAPSE COLLAPSE DEATHSDEATHS
COLLAPSE COLLAPSE DEATHSDEATHS
LOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTIONLOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTION ECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSS
RISKRISKRISKRISK
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP
LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES
TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS
FLOODING
INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIESEMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)
• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)
• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES • DISASTER SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS
• DATABASES • DISASTER SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
• AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT
• PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION
• ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)
• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN
• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS
• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)
• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN
• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS
• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)
• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES
EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ENCOMPASSES
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ENCOMPASSES
PREVENTION, MITIGATION,AND PREPAREDNESS; MONITORING, FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS;
EMERGENCY RESPONSE; RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION
PREVENTION, MITIGATION,AND PREPAREDNESS; MONITORING, FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS;
EMERGENCY RESPONSE; RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION POLICIESDISASTER RISK REDUCTION POLICIES
RECOVERY & RECOVERY & RECONSTR.RECONSTR.
ALL ELEMENTS ALL ELEMENTS ARE ARE
INTERRELATEDINTERRELATED
PREVENTION & PREVENTION & MITIGATIONMITIGATION PREPAREDNESSPREPAREDNESS
EMERGENCY EMERGENCY RESPONSERESPONSE
COMMUNITY SCALE COMMUNITY SCALE
RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES
RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES
• PREVENTION (CONTROL WHAT HAPPENS)
• PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND)
• LAND-USE CONTROL (AVOIDANCE)
• PREVENTION (CONTROL WHAT HAPPENS)
• PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND)
• LAND-USE CONTROL (AVOIDANCE)
PREVENTIONPREVENTION
• BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILD-ING COLLAPSE.
• PERFORMANCE STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION FOR LIFELINES.
• BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILD-ING COLLAPSE.
• PERFORMANCE STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION FOR LIFELINES.
AVOIDANCEAVOIDANCE
• LAND USE REGULATIONS FACILITATE AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS FAULT ZONES FOR CONSTRUCT-ION
• LAND USE REGULATIONS FACILITATE AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS FAULT ZONES FOR CONSTRUCT-ION
RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES
RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES
• SITE MODIFICATION • REAL-TIME
MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
• HAZARD FORECASTS• QUAKE SCENARIOS • RESPONSE TO THE
EARTHQUAKE, MON-ITORING, HAZARD FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS.
• SITE MODIFICATION • REAL-TIME
MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
• HAZARD FORECASTS• QUAKE SCENARIOS • RESPONSE TO THE
EARTHQUAKE, MON-ITORING, HAZARD FORECASTS, AND SCENARIOS.
SITE MODIFICATIONSITE MODIFICATION
• ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES (SOIL REMEDIATION) CAN PREVENT LIQUEFACTION
• ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES (SOIL REMEDIATION) CAN PREVENT LIQUEFACTION
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING
WARNING SYSTEMS WARNING SYSTEMS
• FACILITATES GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY OF TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP THROUGH HORIZONAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION
• FACILITATES GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY OF TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP THROUGH HORIZONAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE
• 10,000 DEAD• 20,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• NEAR TOTAL
DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
• LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
• POLITICAL CHAOS
• 10,000 DEAD• 20,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• NEAR TOTAL
DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
• LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
• POLITICAL CHAOS
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE
• 10,000 DEAD• 20,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• NEAR TOTAL
DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
• LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
• POLITICAL CHAOS
• 10,000 DEAD• 20,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• NEAR TOTAL
DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
• LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
• POLITICAL CHAOS
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKE
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKE
• SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER THE 5:46 AM EARTHQUAKE THAT LEFT 3,000 ADULTS AGE 60 OR OLDER TRAPPED IN HOUSES.
• SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER THE 5:46 AM EARTHQUAKE THAT LEFT 3,000 ADULTS AGE 60 OR OLDER TRAPPED IN HOUSES.
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1971 SAN FERNANDO EARTHQUAKE
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1971 SAN FERNANDO EARTHQUAKE
• LOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING.
• LOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING.
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1999 KOCALEI EARTHQUAKE
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1999 KOCALEI EARTHQUAKE
• MASS CARE PROVIDES A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND RECOVERY PERIODS.
• MASS CARE PROVIDES A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND RECOVERY PERIODS.
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1999 KOCALEI EARTHQUAKE
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: 1999 KOCALEI EARTHQUAKE
• A “TENT CITY” PROVIDES TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING RECOVERY
• A “TENT CITY” PROVIDES TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING RECOVERY
EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IS A TOOL FOR RECOVERY
EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IS A TOOL FOR RECOVERY
• EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY
• THE GOAL IS “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”
• EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY
• THE GOAL IS “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: 1988 SPITAK EARTHQUAKE
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: 1988 SPITAK EARTHQUAKE
• RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION SHOULD BE MORE THAN ”RESTOR-ATION TO NORMAL.”
• IT SHOULD BE LINKED WITH PREVENTION/
• RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION SHOULD BE MORE THAN ”RESTOR-ATION TO NORMAL.”
• IT SHOULD BE LINKED WITH PREVENTION/
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE
• 80,000 DEAD• 30,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• 25 MILLION
BUILDINGS DAMAGED• 45 MILLION PEOPLE
AFFECTED
• 80,000 DEAD• 30,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• 25 MILLION
BUILDINGS DAMAGED• 45 MILLION PEOPLE
AFFECTED
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE
• SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS,” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD.
• SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS,” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD.
THE VISION OF THE END IS
DISASTER-RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT
IN EVERY COMMUNITY.
THE VISION OF THE END IS
DISASTER-RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT
IN EVERY COMMUNITY.
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