us economy before and after stimulus
Post on 18-Nov-2014
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The U.S. EconomyPre-stimulus/Post-stimulusPre-stimulus/Post-stimulus
Michael NormanJTF Chief Economist
Gross Domestic Product(Y-o-Y % change)
0
1
2
3
4
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Stimulus enacted
Unemployment Rate
8
9
10
11
Stimulus enacted
4
5
6
7
Total Nonfarm Payrolls(M-o-M change thousands)
0
200
400
600
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
Stimulus enacted
Total Private Payrolls(M-o-M change thousands)
0
200
400
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
Stimulus enacted
Industrial Production
95
100
105
80
85
90
Stimulus enacted
Capacity Utilization(percent)
75
80
85
60
65
70
Stimulus enacted
Total Vehicle Sales(million units)
14
15
16
17
18
8
9
10
11
12
13
Stimulus enacted
Housing Starts(thous units)
1200
1400
1600
400
600
800
1000
Stimulus enacted
Stock Market(S&P 500 Index)
1400
1600
1800
600
800
1000
1200
Stimulus enacted
Dollar Index
85
90
95
Stimulus enacted
70
75
80
10yr Treasury Yield (percent)
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
Stimulus enacted
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
U. Of Mich Confidence Survey
80
85
90
95
100
50
55
60
65
70
75
Stimulus enacted
Retail Sales(billions $)
380
400
420
300
320
340
360
Stimulus enacted
Personal Income(Y-o-Y % change)
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Stimulus enacted
Personal Saving(billions $)
800
1000
1200
0
200
400
600
Stimulus enacted
Total Business Investment(billions $)
2050
2250
2450
1250
1450
1650
1850
Stimulus enacted
Corporate Profits(billions $)
1600
1800
2000
2200
800
1000
1200
1400
Stimulus enacted
CPI(Y-o-Y % change)
3
4
5
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Stimulus enacted
ISM PMI Index
50
55
60
65
30
35
40
45
Stimulus enacted
Oil(WTI $ per barrel)
100
120
140
160
20
40
60
80
Stimulus enacted
Household Net Worth(billions $)
60000
62000
64000
66000
68000
50000
52000
54000
56000
58000
60000
Stimulus enacted
DisclosureThis information provided in this publication is for informational purposes only. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This information report is not an offer tosell or a solicitation to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal.This report has been prepared as a matter of general information. It is not intended to be a completedescription of any security or company mentioned, and is not an offer to buy or sell any security. All facts andstatistics are from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Additionalinformation of these securities and companies is available upon request. Securities, financial instruments orstrategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. This material does not take into accountyour particular investment objectives, financial situations or strategies. Before acting on the materialsherein, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary seekprofessional advice. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Pastperformance is no guarantee of future performance. Trading and investment decisions are the soleresponsibility of the reader.responsibility of the reader.
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