what is risk?

What is Risk?

Stella SwansonGolder Associates Ltd.

Betty HutchinsonNorthern Mines Monitoring Secretariat

Ecological Risk Assessment Workshop June 2005

Risk is an Everyday Thing

Planning a Boat Trip

Goal: Make Sure the Boat Stays Afloat

Is It Safe?

Standards:

• The rating of the motor

• How many people can the boat hold?

Is It Safe?Variables:• Weather

• Distances to be travelled

• Experience of the boat operator

• Condition of the boat and motor

• The navigation aids and equipment – e.g. maps

How Sure Are We?

Add to Our Confidence That it is Safe By:• Having enough approved life vests

• Having a first aid kit and bailing equipment

• Having fishing gear along in case have to get emergency food

• Checking the fuel – and having extra fuel along

• Tool kit for motor repairs

• Filing a travel plan

Is this Reasonable?How much risk

are we willing to take?

• Can we really count on the weather and are we prepared if the weather gets bad?

• Is there really room for one more moose?

Assessment of Risksfrom Chemicals

Goal: Make sure fish continue to be present in normal numbers and in a healthy state

Is it Safe?“Standards”:• Water quality guidelines or

objectives• Sediment quality guidelines• Consumption guidelines for

concentration of chemicals in fish

• Benchmarks –the level of chemical where we are confident that the fish are protected at the population level

Benchmark

Guideline

Effluent Discharge Point

100 mDownstream

500 mDownstream

Is it Safe?“Variables:”• Amount of chemical being

released after treatment in the effluent treatment system

• Size of the creek, river or lake that the chemical is entering

• Amount of the creek or lake that has changes in chemical concentrations

Is it Safe?Variables, Cont’d• The kinds of fish present in the

creek, river or lake and how sensitive they are to the chemicals

• Whether the fish use the area right where the chemical enters the creek, river or lake for things such as spawning or over-wintering

• Whether the chemical is in a form that can enter the body of the fish

How Sure Are We?Chemical• Treat the effluent to the

best of our ability in order to get chemical concentrations down as low as practical

• Apply safety factors to the water quality or sediment quality objectives or to the effects benchmarks for fish

Boat Trip• Use life vests and

have bailing buckets in the boat

• Boat maximum capacity and motor rating include safety factors

How Sure Are We?Chemical• Deliberately over-estimate the

amount of time fish spend in the area right where the effluent enters the river or lake

• Monitor the water, sediments and fish to be sure that our assessment is correct

• Go back and correct if monitoring shows assessment has some errors

Boat Trip• Look at worst case

weather scenarios

• Keep an eye on weather and performance of the motor

• Leave half of the moose behind if over-loading the boat

Is that Reasonable?

• how important is it to protect fish?

• is the level of safety for the fish correct given how important the fish are?

Is that Reasonable?Chemicals• Different people will

have different opinions as to acceptable risk

• Basic principle for fish: fish continue to be there in normal numbers and in a healthy state

Boat Trip• There may be differences in

opinion re loading the boat with the moose even if somewhat overloaded

• Basic principle: correct balance between benefit of bringing back the whole moose and the risk of swamping the boat