analyst meeting 3q14 - listed...
TRANSCRIPT
Analyst Meeting 3Q14 17 November 2014
Disclaimer
This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use by prospective investors / analysts in the proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. By accepting this material each recipient agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability for any representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation.
The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each recipient of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.
2
Agenda
1. 3Q14 Overview
2. Highlight Update
3. Industry Outlook
4. Operation & Financial Performance
• Strategic Direction • Phoenix Project
Appendix
3
71,766 71,658 68,507
207,880 212,019
106.1 101.5 105.1 104.0 106.3
3Q14 Overview Overview of Business
Net Sales (net excise)
Dubai Unit: $/bbl
1,048
178 22 42 544
Net income
Unit: MB
Unit: MB
Market GIM 6.0 5.4 6.7 7.1 6.6
4.0 1.9
(4.5)
0.7
(1.0)
0.4 1.9 0.8
0.4 1.3
10.4 9.2 3.0 8.2 6.9 Accounting GIM Oil hedging
Unit: $/bbl
3Q13 3Q14 9M14 2Q14 9M13
9Mo9M 2%
1. In 3Q14, average Dubai price dropped to 101.5$/bbl from 106.1$/bbl in 2Q14, driven by higher Libya’s oil production and a gradual rise in the US shale oil production.
2. Net sales were 68,507 MB in 3Q14, decreasing by 4% from 71,658 MB in 2Q14 due to a decrease of 5% in the product prices despite an increase of 1% in the sales volume.
For 9M14, net sales were 212,019 MB, higher than net sales of 207,880 MB in 9M13, mainly due to an increase of 6% in the product prices despite a decline of 4% in the sale volume caused by the VGOHT fire incident.
3. Market GIM in 3Q14 was 6.7$/bbl, increasing by 1.3$/bbl compared to 5.4$/bbl in 2Q14 because of better petrochemical product spreads.
However, the Accounting GIM was 3.0$/bbl, dropping from 9.2$/bbl in 2Q14 mainly due to stock losses and provision for LCM despite hedging gains of 0.8$/bbl.
For 9M14, the Market GIM dropped to 6.6$/bbl from 7.1$/bbl in 9M13. Alleviated by hedging gains of 1.3$/bbl, the Accounting GIM decreased to 6.9$/bbl from 8.2$/bbl in 9M13.
4. Net profit was 22 MB in 3Q14, compared to 178 MB in 2Q14. For 9M14, net profit was 544 MB, compared to 42 MB in 9M13.
QoQ 4 % YoY 5 %
YoY 98% QoQ 88% 9Mo9M 1,195%
YoY 71% QoQ 67% 9Mo9M 16%
4
Stock gain/(loss)
Agenda
1. 3Q14 Overview
2. Highlight Update
3. Industry Outlook
4. Operation & Financial Performance
• Strategic Direction • Phoenix Project
Appendix
5
Highlight Update Dispute settlement between IRPC and Liaopairattana family
6
Criminal 33 Cases
Civil 62 Cases
Plaintiff 46 Cases
Defendant 49 Cases
Type of Cases
Total 95 Case
• Approval for dispute settlement between IRPC and Liaopairattana family
was granted by BOD since September 2014, totaling 95 cases.
- For cases in Trial Court, Trial Courts have approved compromise
verdicts and consented a disposal of the cases.
- For cases in Appeal Court and Supreme Court, IRPC is waiting for
Appeal Court and Supreme Court to issue summons for hearing an
order.
• All of shareholding in United Grain Industries Company Limited
amounting to 992,698 shares or 18.05% of the total shares in the firm to
Liaopairattana Enterprise Company Limited was disposed for 250 MB.
• The 90-year lease agreement beginning in 1995 -1999 between IRPC
and Pornchai Enterprises Co.,Ltd. for the TPI Tower building was
terminated, resulting in a refund of the remaining prepaid rental fees
amounting to 470 MB.
Highlight Update Dow Jones Sustainability Indices (DJSI)
• IRPC has been chosen for inclusion in the Dow Jones Sustainability Emerging Markets Index.
• Reinforce the fact that IRPC is operating businesses with the best sustainability practices by considering the environment, society, corporate governance and good performance.
7
Fire Incident Update
UHV Project Update
• VGOHT unit: Reconstruction is on schedule
Waiting for installation of long-lead items
Expect start-up in April 2015
• DCC: 3Q14, utilization was at 70%
Currently utilization is higher at 80%
• Insurance Claim: 3Q14, amounts to 22 MUSD (710 MB)
• UHV Progress: 84.6% as of October 2014
• COD: October 2015
• CAPEX Utilization: 59%
UHV Project
Highlight: Delta Project Update
Operational Excellence
Commercial Excellence
Human Resource Excellence
Achieving EXCELLENCE across all 3 strategic pillars ensures that IRPC will meet its vision by 2020.
Value chain optimization Overall plant effectiveness Energy efficiency improvement Reliability & asset integrity
Product portfolio optimization Salesforce effectiveness Transportation optimization
Labor cost productivity Corporate overhead reduction Sourcing optimization
37
20
10
Benefit (MUSD)
Target (MUSD)
• Reallocation of spot/term contracts for petroleum products
• Focus on higher margin and high potential customers, and maintain customer royalty for petrochemical products
• Optimize crude selection via upgraded LP model
• Optimize steam consumption
• Optimize energy usage
• Shorten time required for turnaround
• Budget saving
• Reduced non-moving inventory of spare parts
As of 31/12/14
67 34.0
As of 30/9/14
13.9
15.1
5.0
8
Agenda
1. 3Q14 Overview
2. Highlight Update
3. Industry Outlook
4. Operation & Financial Performance
• Strategic Direction • Phoenix Project
Appendix
9
World Oil Demand: Recovery in 2015
Source: PRISM, October 2014 10
US Shale Oil Phenomenon Total US liquids production grew phenomenally in 2014 due to shale oil U.S. Now becomes the BIGGEST producer
Source: IEA, EIA, BofA ML
Big surplus in U.S. Crude Production
Source: IEA, EIA, PIRA, J.P. Morgan
• The US oil output soared to a 31-year high, reaching almost 12 MMBD.
• US is poised to leapfrog Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s largest oil producer.
• The US oil production has significantly changed the flows of oil around the world. US imports have fallen 31 percent since 2005 to 7.5 MMBD.
Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth
11
Less OPEC Crude Oil Needed
Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC & PRISM
Looking back (Nov 4,2013): PRISM estimate average Non-OPEC supply & OPEC NGLs growth of 2014 = +1.7 MMBD
12
A New Norm for Crude Oil Big supply disruptions from OPEC in 2014 As Libyan oil output attempted to make a return in June,
Saudi Arabia did not react
A lower oil price will likely hit countries facing US sanctions such Iran or Russia the hardest…
Source: PIRA
Saudi policy may have shifted to factor in geopolitics
1. A dip in prices could benefit Saudi Arabia by slowing down American shale oil investments and thus keep the US engaged in the Middle East for longer.
2. Higher inventories reduce the risk of a major spike and thus mitigate the likelihood of European or Asian recession.
3. A lower oil price will likely hit countries facing US sanctions such as Iran or Russia the hardest .
13
Breakeven Costs Set Floor for Crude Price
Fiscal Breakeven Price Cost of Oil Production $/BBL
Saudi can stay in comfort zone at 80 – 90$/bbl
Lower floor price shall cause delay for high production cost projects such GTL, Ultra-Deepwater etc.
If the price slides to below 80$/bbl, 1.05 MMBD of North America oil production will be affected.
Production of N. America Project Types with Breakevens above $80/BBL
Source: IEA analysis of Rystad energy Data
Source: Deutsche Bank Thomson Reuters, The Economist Oct14, J.P. Morgan Oct’14
Can. Synthetics Can. Bitumen US LTO Deepwater Crude Oil (>125 Metres)
Total
14
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
'000 Ton
US PROPYLENE DEMAND / SUPPLY ( by Feedstock )
Demand Export/Import Metathesis Dehydro FCC Splitters Steam Crackers ORPDH
Shale Gas, the Revolution in US
6065707580859095100
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
'000 Ton US ETHYLENE DEMAND / SUPPLY ( by Feedstock )
Demand Export/Import Naphtha Butane Propane Ethane OR
There is no effect of Shale gas on ethylene because the demand recovers and operating rate is still stable in high level, ~90% from 2015 -2023.
US Ethylene Demand / Supply (by Feedstock)
PDH continues to increase with several companies announcing new capacity, making propylene oversupplied and needed to be exported.
US Propylene Demand / Supply (by Feedstock)
% Operating rate
% Operating rate
15
Shift to Lighter Cracker Feedstock Changing Petrochemical World
Source: IHS 2014
Ethylene Cash Cost of Regional Stream Cracker
Coal/ Methanol
Ethane
MMT
World Ethylene Demand
The Era of Coal and Ethane
Incremental Ethylene Capacity 2013-2018, MMT
HDPE Demand Growth 4.7% (2013 – 2018)
Higher demand and more usage of US Shale gas improved competitive position, leading to the
reinvestment in commodity products.
Source: IHS 2014
Source: ICIS 2014
16
Increasing On-purpose Propylene Production Due to the New Wave of PDH and CTO
Source: IHS 2014
Incremental Propylene Capacity 2013-2018
China brings a large capacity of CTO and PDH to the market.
Coal/ Methanol PDH
PDH
CTO/MTO becomes a large portion of local supply, reaching 50% of the supply in 2020.
China CTO/MTO expansion 2013-2020
Global Propylene Demand Growth Average 4 MMT/year (2008-2023)
2013-2018 Global propylene demand growth: ~4.6% PP demand growth: 4.4%
17
Petrochemical Driving Force The consumption growth in China boosts global petrochemical investments.
Source: Nexant 2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
China Europe North America South EastAsia
India Japan Brazil Turkey Middle East
Mill
ion
tons
Demand in 2023
Capacity in 2013
China: Primary Driver for Global Future Investment
India: Secondary Driver for Future Investment in Asia
20 Million Tons Excess Capacity
Forecast Capacity Development 2013-2023
Note: Commodity plastics include polyolefins, polystyrene, poly vinyl chloride, PET resin
Demand and Capacity Outlook for Commodity Plastics
18
Benefits of Lower Crude Oil Prices
Fuel Loss Decrease Fuel loss is estimated as a proportion of
production yields and the value of the fuel losses incurred is linked to the level of crude price.
Thus, lower crude price would result in lower value of fuel losses incurred.
Lower Crude Premium Lower Arabian premium is driven by Saudi
Arabia’s incentive to maintain its market shares amid excess supply of crude, supporting product margins. Narrower Brent/Dubai premium is caused by
higher output of US shale oil supply and lower Middle East crude price in well-supplied oil market. Sweet crude is thus relatively cheaper.
Widen Petroleum and Petrochemical Product Margin Sustainably low crude price could stimulate economic growth in the long run.
Higher economic growth would boost up the demand for petroleum and petrochemical products and support the product spreads.
5
4
3
2
1
Less Working Capital Requirement
Benign Inflation and Interest Cost Lower crude price directly eases headline
inflation pressure.
Without inflation pressure, central banks can prolong the low interest rate environment to support economy during the recovery period.
The amount of working capital is directly linked to the amount of payments for purchases of crude, which is in turn proportional to crude price.
Lower crude price reduces required working capital and frees up existing cash.
19
Agenda
1. 3Q14 Overview
2. Highlight Update
3. Industry Outlook
4. Operation & Financial Performance
• Strategic Direction • Phoenix Project
Appendix
20
(7.3) (3.6)
(10.7) (10.4) (8.5) (10.6) (8.4) (7.2) (9.1)
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
020406080
100120140160180200
$/bbl Dubai ULG 95 GAS OIL 0.05% FUEL OIL
Mixed performance of Petroleum Spreads
Source: Platts, IRPC Analysis Team
106.3 106.4
AVG. Price.
1 7
2Q14 2Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
106.3
3Q12
0.04 107.5 106.8 108.2 100.8
0.5 5
18.4 14.6 12.4 9.2 14.6 16.1 13.2 15.1 14.6
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
19.6 16.8 17.3 17.7 17.8 16.0 14.4 17.9 16.1
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
ULG95-Dubai
1Q14
104.5 2
Gasoil-Dubai ($/BBL)
Fuel oil -Dubai ($/BBL)
0.7
($/bbl)
($/bbl)
($/bbl)
106.1 1.6
116.1 10
1Q12 3Q14
101.5 4.7
21
• Average Dubai price decreased in 3Q14, driven by higher Libya’s oil production and a gradual rise in the US shale oil production.
• ULG spread declined due to high US gasoline stock and the end of US driving season.
• Gas oil spread was adversely affected by the monsoon season in South East Asia.
• A rise in fuel oil spread was because of strong power demand in the summer season in M.E., and increased of Iran’s stockpiling demand for fuel oil cargo due to shortages of LPG.
Source: Platts, ICIS, IRPC Analysis Team
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600$/Ton FO 180 3.5%S 500SN 150BS Asphalt
1Q12 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13
421 494 518 509 486 501 499 478 496
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
$/Ton 500SN – FO 180 3.5%S Spread
(19) (7) (3) (27)
(68) (77) (66)
(10)
(71)
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
$/Ton Asphalt – FO 180 3.5%S Spread
1.0 2.0 0.2 0.3
1.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0
1.4 1.5
1.4 1.2
1.8
1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4
2.4 3.5
1.6 1.6
3.1
1.7 2.2 2.5 2.3
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
$/bbl
Market GRM
Lube Base
Refinery
1Q14
• Lube base oil spread was quite stable amid solid demand from China.
• Asphalt spread increased since there was a seasonally strong demand from Australia.
Mixed performance of Lube Base Oil
3Q14
22
• Polyolefin spread maintained at high level due to tight supply of its feedstock in Asia amid ongoing maintenance schedule in the regions. The spread was also supported by the demand from manufacturing sectors.
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
$/Ton Naphtha Ethylene Propylene HDPE PP
1Q12 2Q12 4Q12 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14
434 405 397 480 507 496 565 412
523
87 179 171 110 113 121 125 146
120 521 585 568 590 620 618 691 558 643
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
$/Ton
HDPE-Ethylene –Naphtha Spread
3Q12
HDPE-Ethylene Ethylene - NP
1Q13 3Q13 1Q14
Rising Olefin Spreads
Source: Platts, ICIS, IRPC Analysis Team
3Q14
23
345 439 412 420 434 328 388 399 383
236 175 184 177 193 304 327 198 275
581 614 596 597 627 632 716 597 658
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
$/Ton PP-Propylene Propylene - NP
PP-Propylene –Naphtha Spread
Source: Platts, ICIS, IRPC Analysis Team
• Mixed xylene and toluene spreads improved. This improvement was attributed to ongoing strong performance of paraxylene.
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500$/Ton Naphtha Benzene Toluene Mixed Xylene
1Q12 2Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 4Q13 2Q14
426 428 336 338 364 341 392 396 366
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
$/Ton
305 260 205 192 161 134 234 257
176
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
$/Ton
366 334 349 269 169 115
225 350
170
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
$/Ton Benzene – Naphtha Spread
3Q12 3Q13
Toluene – Naphtha Spread MX – Naphtha Spread
1Q14
Recovering Aromatics Spreads
3Q14
24
500700900
1,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,500
$/Ton Naphtha SM ABS PS
1Q12 2Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 4Q13 3Q12 3Q13
922 976 995 891 863 804 821 965 829
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
$/Ton
1,051 1,057 1,015 960 980 974 1,033 1,041 996
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
$/Ton
PS –Naphtha Spread
773 851 895 759 724 673 688 840 695
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
$/Ton SM - Naphtha Spread
ABS –Naphtha Spread
1Q14
Source: Platts, ICIS, IRPC Analysis Team
Improving Styrenics Spreads
• ABS and PS spread rose supported by strong feed price although the improved spread appeared to be capped by continued weak downstream demand in Asia.
133 168 123 125
156 137 156 140 150
151 141 132 135 66 39
83 142 63
140 157
126 129 116 94 120
141 110
1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
Aromatic &Styrenics Olefins
Market PTF*
$/Ton
* Exclude Intermediate Stream Margin
2Q14 3Q14
25
67% 67% 63% 61% 63% 0%
65% 62% 28% 22% 24% 21% 26%
31% 24%
5% 11% 14% 18% 11%
4% 14%
3Q13 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
Domestic CrudeSweet CrudeSour Crude
Current Production Utilization Crude Intake
Mbbl
• Crude intake dropped in 3Q14 by 5% relative to 2Q14 due to VGOHT fire incident.
• Domestic crude intake in 3Q14 amounted to 18 KBD or 11%, declining by 13 KBD from 2Q14 because of high level of impurity (mercury and sulfur).
• Lube utilization rose by 6% to 84%.
• Utilization rates of aromatics and styrenics were 82% and 92% respectively. These amounted to increases of around 10% QoQ. In the previous quarter, there was a planned shutdown for 13 days.
• Utilization rate of olefins was 84%, down 6% since there were shutdowns in HDPE and PP units.
Unit: KBD
107% 111%
97% 90%
84%
105%
91%
78% 89%
85% 75%
82% 84% 81%
81%
95% 87%
84%
92%
84% 88%
3Q13 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
Olefins Aromatic Styrenic
83% 81%
80%
80%
76%
85%
79%
95% 92%
82%
79%
84% 89%
82%
3Q13 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
Refinery Lube
Utilization
Petrochemical Petroleum
174 172 173 163 179
169 183
16.5 16.0 15.5 15.7 14.9 50.1 46.2
26
Petroleum Sale Metrics Petrochemical Sale Metrics
10%
29%
20%
40%
11%
30% 24%
35%
10%
29% 23%
38%
3Q13 2Q14 3Q14
6%
8%
12%
9%
9%
10%
53%
55%
48%
10%
13%
11%
14%
12%
10%
8%
3%
9%
3Q14
2Q14
3Q13
Naphtha Gasoline pool Diesel pool FO pool Lube &Asphalt Others
6%
27% 26%
41%
6%
29% 32% 33%
5%
27% 30% 38%
Direct Wholesale Article 7 Export
3Q13 2Q14 3Q14
14.23 Mbbl
13.97 Mbbl
14.86 Mbbl
16%
13%
15%
53%
55%
59%
29%
30%
25%
2%
2%
1%
3Q14
2Q14
3Q13
Aromatics Olefins Styrenics Polyol
322 KMT
347 KMT
344 KMT
23%
37% 40%
24%
35% 41%
22%
38% 40%
Direct Agent Export
3Q13 2Q14 3Q14
77% 75% 75%
22% 24% 23%
3/56 2/57 3/57 .
ปิโตรเลยีม
ปิโตรเคม ี
+1% from Power & Utility
71,766 71,658 68,507
3Q14 Sale Volume Metrics
Local 62%
Export 38%
Unit: MB
Direct Wholesales Article7 Export
3Q14 Net Seles Revenue Sale Value
3Q13 2Q14 3Q14
Petroleum Petrochemical
27
1.6 1.6 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.3
3.3 4.1 3.4
2.5 3.3 3.7 3.1
1.1 0.8 1.3
1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2
6.0 6.5 7.8
5.4 6.7 7.1 6.6
83% 81% 80% 80% 76% 85% 79%
3Q13 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
Power & Utility
Petrochemical
Petroleum
GIM in 3Q14
6.0 6.5 7.8 5.4 6.7 7.1 6.6
4.0 0.1
(0.4)
1.9
(4.5)
0.7
(1.0)
0.4
2.3 1.1 1.9 0.8 0.4
1.3
10.4 8.9 8.5 9.2
3.0 8.2 6.9
3Q13 4Q 1Q14 2Q 3Q 9M13 9M14
Accounting GIM
Market GIM
Utilization rate
Unit: $/bbl
Unit: $/bbl
28
• In 3Q14, Market GIM was 6.7$/bbl, rising by 0.7$/bbl compared to 6.0$/bbl in 3Q13.
- Product spreads 0.48 $/bbl - Crude intake 0.67 $/bbl - Delta project 0.92 $/bbl
• Oil Hedging gains (31% of production) was 0.8$/bbl (376MB) in 3Q14, rising by 0.34$/bbl (165MB) compared to 0.4$/bbl in 3Q13. In 3Q14, stock losses and provision for LCM were 4.5$/bbl (2,224MB) while there were stock gains of 4.0$/bbl (2,085MB) in 3Q13.
3Q14 vs. 3Q13
Hedging
Stock gain/ (loss) net LCM
Market GIM
9M14 vs. 9M13 • In 9M14, Market GIM was 6.6$/bbl, decreasing by
0.5$/bbl compared to 7.1$/bbl in 9M13.
- Product spreads 0.52 $/bbl - Crude intake 0.56 $/bbl - Delta project 0.57 $/bbl
• Oil Hedging gains (40% of production) was 1.3$/bbl (1,931MB) in 9M14, rising by 0.92$/bbl (1,398MB) compared to 0.4$/bbl in 9M13, stock losses and provision for LCM were 1.0$/bbl (1,490MB) while there were stock gains of 0.7$/bbl (1,107MB) in 9M13.
Financial Highlight: Quarterly
Unit : MB Quarter % Change
3Q14 2Q14 3Q13 QoQ YoY Net sales 68,507 71,658 71,766 (4) (5)
Market GIM 3,357 2,773 3,121 21 8 Stock Gain/(Loss) (1,906) 944 2,085 (302) (191)
LCM (318) 18 - (1,867) -
Oil Hedging Gain/(Loss) 376 975 211 (61) 78
Accounting GIM 1,509 4,710 5,417 (68) (72) OPEX & Selling Exp. (2,861) (3,113) (3,058) (8) (6)
Other Income 1,156 364 289 217 300
EBITDA (196) 1,961 2,648 (110) (107) Cost of Finance (265) (403) (209) (34) 27
FX Gain/(Loss) 33 (5) (112) 760 129
Impairment Gain/(Loss) 535 (51) 9 1,149 5,844
Investment Gain/(Loss) 130 7 16 1,757 713
Income Tax 1,107 (35) (61) 3,263 1,915
Net Profit 22 178 1,048 (88) (98)
29
Remark
Net Sales YoY: 5% from volume , price 0.3% QoQ: 1% from volume , price 5%
Market GIM YoY: increased by 0.73 $/bbl QoQ: increased by 1.32 $/bbl from spread and Delta project
Oil Hedging 3Q14 Hedging 31% of production volume
OPEX & Selling Exp. YoY: a decline in staff costs and consult exp. QoQ: a decline in maintenance exp.
Other Income Due to port , tank and claim insurance VGOHT = 710 MB
Cost of Finance YoY: a decline in gain from CCS 149 MB and interest paid 93 MB QoQ: increased gain from CCS 72 MB, a decline in interest paid 66 MB
FX Gain/(Loss) Ex.rate 32.52 $/฿ ( 30 Jun 14 Ex.rate = 32.60 $/฿)
Impairment: TPI Tower 470 MB
Investment: Gain of 167 MB from sales of stock
Income Tax: Increased from deferred taxes
Financial Highlight: 9 Months
Unit : MB 9 Months % Change
2014 2013 YoY
Net sales 212,019 207,880 2
Market GIM 10,100 10,904 (7)
Stock Gain/(Loss) (1,169) 1,107 (206)
LCM (321) - -
Oil Hedging Gain/(Loss) 1,931 533 262
Accounting GIM 10,541 12,544 (16)
OPEX & Selling Exp. (8,734) (8,292) 5
Other Income 1,826 841 117
EBITDA 3,633 5,093 (29)
Cost of Finance (1,033) (1,099) (6)
FX Gain/(Loss) 184 (312) 159
Impairment Gain/(Loss) 484 8 5,950
Investment Gain/(Loss) 172 6 2,767
Income Tax 1,005 2 50,150
Net Profit 544 42 1,195
30
Remark
Net Sales Sales volume declined by 4%, product prices rose by 6%
Market GIM 0.51$/bbl = 804 MB 1. A decline in MKT price and volume of production 2. Gain form Delta project
Oil Hedging Hedging 40% of volume production
OPEX & Selling Exp. Increased from staff costs and maintenance exp.
Other Income Due to port, tank and claim insurance VGOHT = 710 MB
Cost of Finance Net interest paid 151 MB and gain CCS/IRS 85 MB
FX Gain/(Loss) Ex.rate 32.52 $/฿ (31 Dec 13 = 32.95 $/฿)
Impairment: prepaid rental fees TPI Tower 470 MB
Investment: Gain from sell stock 167 MB
Income Tax: Increased from deferred tax
43,294 56,725 52,693
360
177 4,640 43,654
56,902 57,333
7,580 16,144
3,188
3Q13 2Q14 3Q14
Long term Short term Cash & S/T investment
3Q14 Debt Portfolio
Float 36 THB 56
Fixed 64 USD 44
Currency (%) Interest Rate (%)
Net Debt = 54,145 MB
Debt Structure As of Sep 30, 2014
ST Loan 4,640LT Loan 17,353
Bond (USD) 7,727Bond (THB) 27,613
Total 57,333
Debt (MB)
ST Loan 8%
LT Loan 30%
Bond (USD) 13%
Bond (THB) 49%
1.34 1.26 1.16
3Q13 2Q14 3Q14
> 1.05x
0.48 0.55 0.74
3Q13 2Q14 3Q14
< 1.0x
Net D/E CA/CL
36,074 40,758 54,145
3Q13 2Q14 3Q14
Cost of Debt 4.04% 3.97% 4.09%
Debt Profile
Financial Ratios
USD/THB = 32.52
Agencies Annual Review
March 2014 “Ba1” (Negative outlook)
April 2014 “BB+” (Stable outlook)
February 2014 “A-(tha)” (Negative outlook) /
F2 (tha)
Credit Ratings
Net Debt
Unit: MB
31
The future begins now creating shared value
Q & A Environment Social Education & Sports Labor & Human Rights Religion Public Health
32
Thank You
Investor Relations Contact: [email protected] Tel. 02-649-7380, Fax. 02-649-7379
Presentation is available at
www.irpc.co.th Click “Presentations”
This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use by prospective investors / analysts in the proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. By accepting this material each recipient agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability for any representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation.
The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the Information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each recipient of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.
Agenda
1. 3Q14 Overview
2. Highlight Update
3. Industry Outlook
4. Operation & Financial Performance
• Strategic Direction • Phoenix Project
Appendix
34
Vision and mission
Leading Integrated Petrochemical Complex in Asia by 2020
BIG LONG STRONG
1st Quartile ROIC in Petroleum & Petrochemical Industry
Member of DJSI Emerging Markets Universe
5% pa Revenue Growth with 15% pa EBITDA Growth
Groups Aspirations
Capacity & Products Expansion
Product & Service Improvement
Asset Utilization Enhancement
Operational Efficiency Improvement
Business Structure & Work Process
Leadership & Culture
Superb Products Portfolio
Management
Technology Driven Growth
Performance Planning & Monitoring
Excellence Capital Discipline
END
MEAN
WAY
Commercial Excellence BD & RD Excellence HR
Excellence Financial
Excellence Operational Excellence
REVENUE DJSI ROIC
35
Strategic Roadmap 2009-2020
Completed Project
Trail
Destination
Leading Integrated Petrochemical Complex In Asia by 2020
2015
2013
2009
2020
CHP I: - Electricity +220MW - Steam +420T/h
PRP: +100KTA of Propylene EURO IV: - Gasoline 15 KBD
- Diesel 10 KBD - Kerosene 15 KBD
TDAE: +28KTA, 150BS +25KTA Lube Blending: +60m.Ltrs./year EBSM: +60KTA, ABS/SAN: +60KTA
DELTA Initiatives & Implementations
Domestic crude usage up to 35KBD
Assets Management (Bankai/EIZ)
Product value increase by converting fuel oil to petrochemical products
Crude run at the full capacity of 215 KBD
UHV Completion
Quick Win Initiatives
Focus on specialties and move away from heavy-asset company
AA / SAP PX
Polyols SM
Future Project New investments
Crude Run 181 KBD: 84% Nelson Complexity Index: 6.6 Portfolio of Revenue: Petroleum 76% Petrochemical 24%
Crude Run 215 KBD: 100% Nelson Complexity Index: 8.6 More stable portfolio of Revenue:
Petroleum 59% Petrochemical 41%
Functional Excellence
Organic & Inorganic Growth: 5% pa Revenue Growth 15% pa EBITDA Growth
Member of DJSI: Emerging Markets Universe 1st Quartile ROIC in Petroleum &
Petrochemical Industry: ROIC 14%
PP Compound PP Expansion Approved
2017
36
COMmercial EXcellence
Strategic Initiatives: Delta
Organisation
DELTA
HR EXcellence
7 Workstreams
USD 37 M
5 Workstreams
USD 10 M
2 Workstreams
USD 20 M
USD 67 M
Delta
HR EXcellence OPerational EXcellence
37
• Increase propylene yield 320 KTA • Heavy and cheaper crude processing • COD : October 2015
Product Yield
23% 8%
14%
10%
40%
38%
5%
10%
16%
21%
2%
5% 6% 2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
IRPC IRPC+UHV
Ethylene
Propylene
LPG
Naphtha +Reformate
Gasoline
Diesel/ JetFuel
Lube Oil
Fuel Oil
Market GIM ($/BBL)
Benefit
$/bbl
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
BAU Dom.Crude UHV Delta Prog.
2012A 2013A 2014B 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
5.8 7.0
Progress 84.6% as of October 2014
HYVAHL reactor C3 rectifier & C3 stripper erection
Reactor and regenerator
38
Strategic Initiatives: UHV
Strategic Initiatives Roadmap: 2020
PP Derivatives • PP Expansion
160 KTA • PP Compounding
140 KTA
• DELTA Initiative Implementation • Assets Management (Bankai/EIZ)
Para-Xylene (PX)
Acrylic Acid (AA)
• Specialty focus and Moving away from heavy-asset company
• CHP I: Electricity +220MW, Steam +420T/hr • PRP +100KTA of Propylene • EURO IV: Gasoline 15KBD, Diesel 10KBD, Jet 15KBD • TDAE +28KTA, 150BS +25KTA • Lube Blending +60m.Ltrs./year • EBSM +60KTA, ABS/SAN +60KTA
Completed Project during 2011-13
2013 Crude Run 181 KBD Nelson Complexity Index Portfolio of Revenue: Petroleum/Petrochemical & Others
2
2015 Crude Run 215 KBD Nelson Complexity Index More stable portfolio of Revenue: Petroleum/Petrochemical & Others
76% / 24%
59% / 41% 6.6
8.6 84%
100%
1
3
STS 2014: Strengthening Core Business
• Increase product value by converting fuel oil to petrochemical products
• Running at full capacity of 215 KBD
Super Absorbent Polymer (SAP)
Quick Win Initiatives
UHV Completion
New investments through JV
2013
2014
2015
2017
39
Agenda
1. 3Q14 Overview
2. Highlight Update
3. Industry Outlook
4. Operation & Financial Performance
• Strategic Direction • Phoenix Project
Appendix
40
Phoenix Initiatives & Roadmap Capacity & Products
Expansion Capacity & Product
Expansion
Operational Efficiency Improvement
Asset Utilization Enhancement
Product & Services Improvement
Petrochem Petroleum Port & Tank Real Estate & Services
6. Supply Chain Optimization (Griffin and Trading)
3. Ethylene Specialty Development
7. Lube Group 1 Specialty Products Focus (TDAE/150BS)
12. I'M ACE: IRPC Service Solutions
1. Petrochem Operation & Energy Efficiency
5. Petroleum Operation & Energy Efficiency
9 . New Value Added for Port and Tank Business
2. Capacity Development for Propylene Growth (PRP/UHV)
11. Build and sustain land for green industrial complex (Bankai/EIZ)
4. EBSM Upgrading for ABS Specialty
(EBSM, ABS/SAN)
14. Performance Chemical Business Development Project
8. Petroleum quality improvement to clean fuel and green growth development (EURO IV)
13. Petrochem Catalyst Commercialization
15. Utilities for Sustainability
16: Oil Depot and Lube Blending Business Improvement (Lube Blending)
17: Analytical Lab
19: Hydrocarbon Management
20: Intellectual Property Stewardship
41
Additional Capacity in Phoenix Projects
Sep. +60 KTA
2012 2013 2014 2015
EBSM Upgrading for
ABS
Lube Group1
Petroleum Quality
Improvement
SM 200/260 KTA
TDAE 22/50 KTA 150BS 95/120 KTA
EURO IV Gasoline 15KBD Diesel 10KBD
Kerosene 15KBD
Project Total Capacity Old/New
Oct. Propylene +100 KTA
Sep. Propylene +320 KTA
PRP+ Propylene Growth (UHV)
Propylene 312/732 KTA
SAN3/ABS6 Apr. +60 KTA
ABS/SAN 117/177 KTA
Sep. TDAE +28 KTA 150BS +25 KTA
Feb. GHU 15 KBD
Mar. Co-Invest
Diesel 10KBD Kerosene 15KBD
42
Refinery & Lube
ADU
Lube Base
Asphalt
Products 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CDU 215 KBD 215 KBD
150BS 95 KTA 120 KTA
TDAE 22 KTA 50 KTA
Lube Group 1 Specialty Products: Increase high value added lube specialty products: TDAE & Bright Stock
+28 KTA
Petroleum Quality Improvement to Clean Fuel & Green Growth Development: Upgrading HSD / Gasoline to be EURO IV standard
Products 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gasoline 75 M.Ltrs 75 M.Ltrs
Diesel 180 M.Ltrs 180 M.Ltrs
50 KTA
Phoenix by Business Unit
120 KTA +25 KTA
Initiative 7
Initiative 8
43
Products 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Benzene 114 KTA 114 KTA
Toluene 132 KTA 132 KTA
Mixed Xylene 121 KTA 121 KTA
Products 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
SM 200 KTA 260 KTA
ABS/SAN 117 KTA 177 KTA
PS 100 KTA 100 KTA
EPS 30 KTA 30 KTA
+60 KTA
Performance Chemical Business Development Project: Increase 60 KTA EBSM for feeding ABS specialty. To satisfy local demand for ABS/SAN expansion and to produce Nano additive.
260 KTA
Styrene
+60 KTA 177 KTA
ABS/SAN Expansion 6 Increase ABS/SAN from 117 KTA to 177 KTA to support ABS specialties production and Nano
additive production.
Phoenix by Business Unit (Con’t)
Aromatics
Initiative 4
44
Olefins Products 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ethylene 360 KTA 433 KTA
Propylene 312 KTA 732 KTA
Butadiene 56 KTA 56 KTA
Acetylene 4 KTA 4 KTA
Upstream Project for Hygiene & Value Added Products (UHV): Upgrading low value product (HS-ATB) to be high value added product for petrochemical feedstock:
Propylene 320 KTA, Ethylene 73 KTA, and Heavy Aromatic Naphtha 250 KTA, etc.
+320 KTA +100 KTA
+73 KTA
412 KTA 732 KTA 433 KTA
Products 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PP 475 KTA 475 KTA
HDPE 140 KTA 140 KTA
Ethylene Specialty Development High Value Added Product of HDPE Specialty & PE Wax .
Phoenix by Business Unit (Con’t)
Polyolefins
Initiative 2
Initiative 3
45
After completion of UHV • Running at full capacity of 215 KBD • Propylene 320 KTA • Light Distillate yield • Crude Selection Flexibility Sweet : Sour = 30:70 20:80
Benefits of UHV Project
Production Yield
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current Run +40 KBD Crude Run with UHV
20%
43%
8%
11%
10%
35%
35%
38%
11% 10%
19% 20%
21%
4% 2% 5% 6% 2% Ethylene
Propylene
LPG
Naphtha
Gasoline
Diesel/Jet
Lube Base
FO
Currently running at full capacity is not optimal.
at 175 KBD (As of 2012)
46