andri snaer magnason - si · at the moment, iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium,...

59
Náttúruvernd og nýting náttúruauðlinda. 5. október 2006 Andri Snær Magnason

Upload: others

Post on 06-Nov-2019

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

Náttúruverndog nýting

náttúruauðlinda.

5. október 2006

Andri Snær Magnason

Page 2: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Page 3: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 4: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 5: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 6: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

“Without damaging the environment”

Page 7: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

Lowes prices:

• Economically harnessable hydropower ... With reletively little environmental impact is estimated at 30 TWh/yr

Page 8: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

JÖKULSÁR SKAGAFJARÐAR

Page 9: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 10: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

SKJÁLFANDAFLJÓT

Page 11: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

• MYND ALDEYJARFOSS• (Hann er á póstkortinu)

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Page 12: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

JÖKULSÁ ÁFJÖLLUM

Page 13: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Page 14: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

JÖKULSÁR

AUSTURLANDS

Page 15: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 16: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 17: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

MARKARFLJÓT

Page 18: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Page 19: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

LANGASJÓ

Page 20: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 21: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 22: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

ÞJÓRSÁRVER

Page 23: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 24: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

ALLT ÞETTA:

16TERAWATTSTUNDIR

Page 25: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

Hvað er þá eftir?

Stóra Laxá, Selá, GrímsáVatnsdalsá, Norðurá...

Page 26: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

HVÍTÁ

Page 27: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Page 28: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 29: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 30: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 31: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 32: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 33: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 34: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

Íslensk sendinefnd skoðar

súrálsverksmiðju áSpáni

Page 35: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 36: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

Irish Independent, 31. október 2005. „A terrified community has raised major cancer fears over plans to expand the giant 'red mud' lagoons at the controversial Aughinish Alumina plant.“

Page 37: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

HAGVÖXTUR

Page 38: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 39: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

Til þess að uppfylla áumbeðnum tíma þessar þarfir Norðuráls fyrir raforku er nauðsynlegt að byggja Búðarhálsvirkjun og Norðlingaölduveitu. Aðrir kostir eru ekki í stöðunni.

www.landsvirkjun.is

Page 40: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

True wealth17 ágúst 2006

Published by Stansberry & Associates Investment Research

Page 41: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

Harnessing Unlimited Power and�Profits from the World’s Most �Progressive Energy Program

Page 42: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

It works out great for Iceland, too. It is very cheap for Iceland to deliver power to Century.

The Icelandic power companies will make extraordinary profits on that power if aluminum prices stay strong. And if aluminum prices weaken, Iceland is not biting the hand that feeds it."

Page 43: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

NFS 3. mars 2006.,,Álverið í Straumsvík stækkað eða lagt

niður."Forráðamenn Alcan í samtali við Halldór

Ásgrímsson.

Page 44: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

Dæmi um nokkur ný álver:

SUAL Group: Kazakhstan: 500.000 tonn.

Hydro aluminum: Qatar: 600.000 tonn stefnir í 1.200.000 tonn.

RUSAL: Krasnoyask: 600.000 tonnBoguchansk: 600.000 tonn

ALCAN: STRAUMSVÍK: 500.000 tonn

Page 45: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

Mögulegar stóriðjuframkvæmdir munu þrengja verulega að frekari nýtingu

orkulindalandsins. Allar þrjár

álversframkvæmdirnar krefjast um 13 TW stunda af nýrri orku og

yrði heildarorkunotkun komin upp í 29 TW stundir sem þýðir um 60% af

heildarframleiðslugetu orkuauðlindarinnar.

KB banki 3. Okt. 2006

Page 46: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

Alcan: Straumsvík með stækkun: 460.000 tonnCentury: Helguvík: 250.000 tonnAlcoa: Fjarðar�ál: 340.000 tonnHúsavík: 250.000 tonnCentury: Hvalfjörður: 300.000 tonn

Samtals 1560 þúsund tonn

Svo er RUSSAL áhugasamt

Page 47: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 48: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 49: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to

boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy over the course of ten years, in a move that will place Iceland in the top ten global producers.

"Iceland offers aluminium producers plentiful energy resources, a beneficial geographical location and favourable legislation as the government seems eager to build on the aluminium production base," a Moscow-based analyst told MB.

Page 50: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

Companies filed charges in New York against Russian Aluminum and its chief executive, Oleg Deripaska, accusing him of fraud, money laundering, extortion and complicity to murder.

Rusal aquried companies:

"through pure physical force of armed thugs, bribery [and] extortion”

heimild: moscow times

Page 51: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

Reuters 4. j�l’ 2006:

�Underperforming U.S. aluminum giantAlcoa Inc. is ripe for takeover, andanalysts see Rio Tinto Ltd. as likelypredator.

Page 52: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

RIO TINTO

Page 53: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

PROBABLYTHE MOST RUTHLESS

ANDUNCARING COMPANY

IN THE WORLD

Page 54: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

ALCOA... fær 90% afslátt af stimpilgjöldum, það er undanskilið

vörugjöldum, markaðs- og iðnaðarmálagjaldi og greiðir 5% tekjuskatt af arði í stað 10%. Þáfær fyrirtækið verulegan afslátt

af leyfisgjöldum vegna byggingarframkvæmda og umtalsverðan afslátt af

fasteignagjöldum til frambúðar. Það þarf ekki að taka fram, að

hátæknifyrirtæki, þjónustufyrirtæki og önnur

fyrirtæki í eigu Íslendinga fáengar þessara ívilnana. Hörður

Ágústsson Marel.

Page 55: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

• Þá mun aukin eftirspurn aðeins kalla ámótvægisaðgerðir af hálfu ríkisins, s.s. vaxtahækkanir, til þess að halda öðrum greinum efnahagslífsins ískefjum svo hægt sé að skapa rými fyrir álfjárfestinguna.

• KBbanki 3. okt 2006

Page 56: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 57: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

...Alcoa’s image as the worst polluter in the most polluted state in the United States.

American Metal Market, July 23, 2001

Page 58: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy
Page 59: Andri Snaer Magnason - si · At the moment, Iceland produces 270,000 tpy of primary aluminium, while the authorities aim to boost output more than fivefold to 1.5 million tpy

2093