annual data and verification tabulation of atlantic … · annual data and verification tabulation...

NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC

ANNUAL DATA AND VERIFICATION TABULATION OF ATLANTIC CYCLONES1974

John R. Hope and Staff, NHC

National Hurricane CenterMiami, FloridaMarch 1976

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

ProPerty Of'NOM Coral Gables Library

GafJles One Tower~:$;'() &outh Dixie Highway, Room 520

Ccral Gables, Florida 33145

ANNUAL DATA AND VERIFICATION TABULATION

ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

1974

JOHN R. HOPE AND STAFF, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

JANUARY 1976

INTRODUCTION

This report, prepared at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is the

first of an annua series to provide a source of summarized data on Atlantic

tropical cyclones. I t wi 1 not duplicate the narrative overview of the

hurricane season and the description of individual storms, which will con-

tinue to be published in the Monthly Weather Review.

To a considerable extent, the information contained herein rep1aces that

which appeared during the past years in the U.S. Navy's Annual Hurricane

Summary, that series having been discontinued after the 1971 hurricane season

This summary a1so is similar in some respects to the Annua1 Typhoon Report

prepared by the u.s. Navy Fleet Weather Central/Joint Typhoon Warning Center

in Guam.

In addition to data supplied by the National Weather Service, materials

Satellite Service (NESS),have been furnished by the NOAA National Environmenta

Hurricanes)and the CARCAH (Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, Al

OBJECTIVE FORECAST TECHNIQUES.

The following tropical cyclone prediction models were used at the National

Hurricane Center for forecasting motion on an operational basis:

,

Chase, 1968).NHC-67 (Miller, Hi A stepwise screening regression

model using predictors derived from the current and 24-hour old 1000-

700-, and 500mb data, and includes persistence during the early fore-

cast periods.

SAN BAR (Sanders and Burpee, 1968).2. A filtered barotropic model using

nput data derived from the 1000- to 100 mb pressure weighted winds.

The mode1 requires the use of "bogus" data in data-void areas. The

system was modified by Pike (1972) so that the initia1 wind

near the storm wou1d conform to the current storm motion.

3. HURRAN (Hope and Neumann, 1970). An ana1og system using as a data

base the tracks 'pf a11 At1antic tropica1 storms and hurricanes dating.,

back to 1886.

4 CLIPER (Neumann, 1972). Stepwise mu1tip1e screening regression using

predictors derived from climatology and persistence.

5. NHC-72 (Neumann, Hope, Miller, 1972). A modified stepwise multiple

screening regression system which combines the NHC-67 concept and the

CllPER system into a single model.

6. NHC-73 (Neumann and Lawrence, 1973). Simi1ar in concept to NHC-]2

except t also uses the I'perfect prog and MOS (model output statis-

tics) methods to introduce NMC (National Meteoro1ogical Center) numer-

ica prognostic data into the prediction equations.

The National Hurricane Center uses the above mode1s as guidance in the

formu1ation of ts forecasts. The hurricane forecaster also makes extensive

use of analyses and prognoses produced by NMC and RCTM (Regional Center for

Tropical Meteorology) in Miami

VERIFICATION

Verification statistics for the 1974 season are shown in Table

average errors for official forecasts for the 5-year period 1970-1974 are

(Pe1issier, 1974).shown in Table 2.

2

Table 1. Verification of 1974 tropical storm and hurricane forecasts.

Figures in parenthesis are number of cases

FORECAST DISPLACEMENT ERRORS (~I oM I.)12 HR. 24 HR. 48 HR. 72 HR.METHOD

INITIALPOSITION

ERROR (N.MI.)

Official 18(99)

46(99)

90(86)

199(62)

346(41 )

NHC-67 19( 1 00)

49(100)

104(87)

217(63)

330(43)

NHC-72 46(100)

89(8])

19( 1 00)

138(63)

372(43)

NHC-73 17(48)

49(48)

102(42)

161(31 )

226(21)

HURRAN 20(53)

64(53)

142(44)

297(31)

357(26)

SAN BAR 54(48)

17(48)

185(30)

100(41 )

339(20)

CLIPER 19( 1 00 )

104(8])

52(100)

298(43)

193(63)

Tab1e 2. Five-year summary, 1970-1974, of verification of officia1

forecasts. Figures in parenthesis are number of forecasts.

FORECAST DISPLACEMENT ERROR (N.MI.)INITIALPOSITION

ERROR (N.MI. 24 HR. 48 HR. 72 HR

21

(513)243

(297)102

(435)405

(207)

The initia1 position error in Tab1es 1 and 2 is the difference between the

3

operational initial position and that determined during post analysis (best

track position). s the vector differenceThe forecast displacement error

between the forecast displacement and the actual disp1acement computed from

best-track positions.

Another verification statistic computed following the 1974 season was

the 1andfa1 That error isprediction error for the official forecasts.

defined as the distance from the predicted landfall point, made 24 hours

andfa11, to the actua1 1andfa11 point. In the few casesprior to actual

where the storm either crossed an island or made landfal when predicted to

remain offshore, the error was designated as the distance from the landfall

point to the nearest point on the forecast track. These data are shown in

Tab1e 3.

landfal errors of named tropica1 storms and hurricanesTab1e 3.

LANDFALL ERROR (N.MI.)STORM

40A1ma

no landfalBecky

Carmen (Belize) 18

Carmen (Louisiana) 40

no landfallDolly

no landfallElaine

Fifi 0

25Gertrude

25Average

4

The mean landfal error for a1 storms during the period 1970-1974

computed as described above was 47 n.mi. (23 cases), while that for only

those that struck the United States (9 cases) was 44 n.mi.

A summary of 1974 North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics is shown

in Table 4. Tracks of 1974 tropical cyclones are in Figure

The best track positions for 1974 named storms are in Table 5, along

with forecast positions, initia1 position, and forecast errors.

Table 6 lists a1 center fix positions and intensity evaluations used

operationa11y at the Nationa1 Hurricane Center during 1974. Fixes are in

chronological order, and include those obtained by aerial reconnaissance

penetrations and radar, sate1 te (Miami SFSS), and 1and-based radar

Tab1e 7 s an aerial reconnaissance summary for the 1974 season, and

Table 8 summarizes tropical cyclone reconnaissance over a la-year period

A number of vortex profiles constructed from data obtained by aerial

reconnaissance are in Figure 2. These profiles show winds, temperatures

dew points, D-values, and weather in the four quadrants of the storms at

specified distances from the center out to 80 n.mi. Figure 3 is a diagram

of the paths flown in obtaining the vortex profiles.

Graphs of the lowest central pressure vs. time for 1974 tropical

cyc1ones are in Figure 4.

Daily satellite photographs (SMS- or ATS-3) of 1974 named tropical

cyclones are in Figure 5.

,.

Main contributors were: Ms. Dorothy Mixon, who listed the center

fixes in chronological order; Ms. Mary Watson, who did the graphics;

Ms. Lilias Wilson, who typed the tables and manuscript; Dr. Joseph

Pe1issier, who computed the verification statistics; and Captain Michae1

Westman, U. S. Air Force (CARCAH), who p1otted the vortex profi1es

6

REFERENCES

Hope, J. R. and C. J. Neumann, 1970: !'An Operationa1 Technique forRe1ating the Movement of Existing Tropica1 Cyc1ones to PastTracks," Month1y Weathe~ ~eview, Vo1. 98, No. 23, pp. 925-933.

Miller, B. I., E. C. Hill and P. P. Chase, 1968: "Revised Technique forForecasting Hurricane Motion by Statistical Methods, "MonthlyWeather Rev)_e_w, Vol. 96, No.8, pp. 540-548.

Neumann, C. J., 1972: "An A1ternate to the HURRAN Tropica1 Cyc1oneForecast System", NOAA Technica1 Memorandum NWS SR-62, 24 pp

J. R. Hope and B. I. Miller, 1972: "A Statistical Method ofCombining Synoptic and Empirical Tropical Cyclone PredictionSystems", NOAA Technica1 Memorandum NWS SR-63, 32 pp.

and M. B. Lawrence, 1973: "Statistical-Dynamical Prediction ofTropical Cyclone Motion (NHC73)'t, NOM Technical MemorandumNWS SR-69, 34 pp.

Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane Track Prediction byAdjustment of the Initital Wind Field,11 NOAA Technical MemorandumNWS SR-66, 16 pp.

Sanders, F., and R. W. Burpee, 1968: "Experiments in Barotropic HurricaneTrack Forecasting,11 Journal~ Applied Meteorology, Vol. 7,No.3, pp. 313-323.

Pe1issier, J. M., 1974: Minutes of the Interdepartmenta1 Hurricane WarningConference, Nationa1 Hurricane Center, Coral Gab1es, Florida.

7

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

Figure Tracks of 1974 tropical cyclones.

Figure 2. Vortex profi1es, 1974 tropica1 cyc1ones.

Figure 3. F1ight pattern flown in obtaining vortex profi1es.

Figure 4. time, 1974 tropical cyclones.Lowest pressure V5.

Daily satelhurr-icanes ~

Figure 5. te photographs of 1974 tropica storms and

Tab1e Verification of 1974 tropical storm and hurricane forecastsFigures in parenthesis are the number of cases.

Tab1e 2. Five-year summary, 1970-1974 of verification of officia1forecasts. Figures in parenthesis are the number of cases.

Tab1e 3. Landfa1 errors of 1974 tropical storms and hurricanes.

Tab1e 4. Summary of 1974 tropica cyclone statistics

Table 5. Best track and forecast positions, initia1 position error, andforecast errors for 1974 tropica1 cyc1ones.

Table 6. Center fix positions and intensity eva1uations for 1974 tropica1cyc1ones.

Tab1e 7. Reconnaissance summary for 1974 hurricane season

Tab1e 8. Summary of tropica1 cyc1one reconnaissance, 1965-1974.

8

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annual data and verification tabulation of atlantic … · annual data and verification tabulation...

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