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Annual SAC Reviews (2015)
NUMERICAL ATMOSPHERE MODELLING
D. BALA SUBRAHAMANYAM
SPACE PHYSICSLABORATORY, V IKRAM SARABHAI SPACE CENTRE
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM - 695 022
http://spl.gov.in/
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 1 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Scope of the Presentation
SCOPE OF THE PRESENTATION
Atmospheric Modelling Activities:OPERATIONAL AND RESEARCHMODE APPLICATIONS OF THENWP MODELS
Short-range Weather Predictions in support ofPSLV/GSLV Missions
Migration from the HRM to COSMO ModelComplete Automation of the COSMO Model Simulations
=====================================================
Rainfall Simulations through HRM and COSMOChallenging Tasks (Localized and Isolated Rainfall Events)
=====================================================
Current Status of Ongoing and New ActivitiesCoupling of the FLEXPART with COSMO Model
Large Eddy Simulations: Initiatives with the PALM Model
=====================================================
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 2 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) COSMO Simulations for PSLV/GSLV Missions
Weather Predictions for PSLV/GSLV Missions
COSMO Simulations in support of PSLV/GSLV Missions
SPL IS ONE OF THE PARTICIPATING INSTITUTIONS IN THE
“I NTER-CENTREWEATHER FORECASTINGEXPERT TEAM”CONSTITUTED BY SDSC, SHARFOR PSLV & GSLV
LAUNCHES SINCECHANDRAYAAN -1 MISSION.
SPL IS ALSO SUPPORTING THERLV-TD PROJECT THROUGH
DOL-WIND BIASING MEASUREMENT STRATEGY OVERSHARAND BAY OF BENGAL.
THIS YEAR, SUPPORT WAS EXTENDED TOPSLV-C26, C27,C28 AND GSLV-MK III (LVM3-X) M ISSIONS.
Mandate of the Expert Team:to forecast formation of low pressure systems in Bay of Bengal concerned to SHAR
clearance for start of countdown activities (T - 72 Hrs)
regular bulletins regarding thunderstorms over SHAR region from T - 5 days
analysis of NWP products from different global models with reference to SHAR
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 3 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) COSMO Simulations for PSLV/GSLV Missions
Weather Predictions for PSLV/GSLV Missions
COSMO Simulations in support of PSLV/GSLV Missions
SPL IS ONE OF THE PARTICIPATING INSTITUTIONS IN THE
“I NTER-CENTREWEATHER FORECASTINGEXPERT TEAM”CONSTITUTED BY SDSC, SHARFOR PSLV & GSLV
LAUNCHES SINCECHANDRAYAAN -1 MISSION.
SPL IS ALSO SUPPORTING THERLV-TD PROJECT THROUGH
DOL-WIND BIASING MEASUREMENT STRATEGY OVERSHARAND BAY OF BENGAL.
THIS YEAR, SUPPORT WAS EXTENDED TOPSLV-C26, C27,C28 AND GSLV-MK III (LVM3-X) M ISSIONS.
Mandate of the Expert Team:to forecast formation of low pressure systems in Bay of Bengal concerned to SHAR
clearance for start of countdown activities (T - 72 Hrs)
regular bulletins regarding thunderstorms over SHAR region from T - 5 days
analysis of NWP products from different global models with reference to SHAR
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 3 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) COSMO Simulations for PSLV/GSLV Missions
Weather Predictions for PSLV/GSLV Missions
COSMO Simulations in support of PSLV/GSLV Missions
SPL IS ONE OF THE PARTICIPATING INSTITUTIONS IN THE
“I NTER-CENTREWEATHER FORECASTINGEXPERT TEAM”CONSTITUTED BY SDSC, SHARFOR PSLV & GSLV
LAUNCHES SINCECHANDRAYAAN -1 MISSION.
SPL IS ALSO SUPPORTING THERLV-TD PROJECT THROUGH
DOL-WIND BIASING MEASUREMENT STRATEGY OVERSHARAND BAY OF BENGAL.
THIS YEAR, SUPPORT WAS EXTENDED TOPSLV-C26, C27,C28 AND GSLV-MK III (LVM3-X) M ISSIONS.
Mandate of the Expert Team:to forecast formation of low pressure systems in Bay of Bengal concerned to SHAR
clearance for start of countdown activities (T - 72 Hrs)
regular bulletins regarding thunderstorms over SHAR region from T - 5 days
analysis of NWP products from different global models with reference to SHAR
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 3 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Migration from the HRM to COSMO Model
MIGRATION FROM THE HRM TO COSMO MODEL
High-resolutional Regional Model (HRM)⇓
Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO)
BACKGROUND: GRIdded Binary (GRIB) Data Format
The first version (GRIB1) was introduced by WMO in 1985
This is a CBS (Commission for Basic Systems)/WMO Data Format
Used world-wide for the storage and exchange of weather products
GRIB1 Data Format: A Few Shortcomings and Disadvantages:
(i) Compression of GRIB1 Data (Was not advantageous)
(ii) No convention for missing data
(iii) No support for smaller time-steps
(iv) Inclusion of new products in the GRIB1 format (EnsembleForecast) ???
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 4 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Migration from the HRM to COSMO Model
MIGRATION FROM THE HRM TO COSMO MODEL ...
High-resolutional Regional Model (HRM)⇓
Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO)
INTRODUCTION OF THE GRIB2 DATA FORMAT
In 2003, WMO introduced a NEW edition of GRIB, namely: GRIB2
The GRIB2 data format offered inclusion of infinite no. of newproducts
The GRIB2 data also offered excellent compressibility:
Compressibility of GRIB1 Data (TAR + GZ) = 50%∗
Compressibility of GRIB2 Data (TAR + GZ) = 88%∗
∗[Based on GME global model analyes data compression]
WITH THE CHANGING TRENDS WORLDWIDE, THE GERMAN WEATHER SERVICE (DWD)
ALSO ADOPTED THEGRIB2 FORMAT FOR THEIR GLOBAL MODELS(GME AND ICON).
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 5 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Migration from the HRM to COSMO Model
MIGRATION FROM THE HRM TO COSMO MODEL ...
GLOBAL SCENARIO: Grid-Resolution of Global Atmospheric Mo dels
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
WITH THE AVAILABILITY OF VERY FINE
RESOLUTION SPATIAL OBSERVATIONS,
TOGETHER WITH A DENSE IN-SITU
OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH-PERFORMANCE
COMPUTING SYSTEMS, ALL THE THE
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCMS)
ARE FORCED TO REFINE THEIR GRID
RESOLUTIONS.
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 6 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Migration from the HRM to COSMO Model
MIGRATION FROM THE HRM TO COSMO MODEL ...
Future Scenario in Atmospheric Modelling ???[PRESENTLY(2015), DWDIS PROVIDING THE GLOBAL DATA @ 0.20°RESOLUTION!!!]
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 7 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Migration from the HRM to COSMO Model
MIGRATION FROM THE HRM TO COSMO MODEL ...
Inevitable Migration from the HRM to COSMO Model
⇓
Migration of Global Models from GRIB1 to GRIB2 data format
Compatibility issues for HRM in handling the GRIB2 data
Migration from hydrostatic to non-hydrostatic models
A new version of HRM ??? (A temporary solution for few more years)
SINCE JUNE 2014, SPLHAS COMPLETELY MIGRATED FROM THEHRM TO COSMO
MODEL, AND NOW THE SHORT-RANGE WEATHER PREDICTIONS IN SUPPORT OF THE
PSLV/GSLVMISSIONS ARE CARRIED OUT THROUGHCOSMOMODEL SIMULATIONS.
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 8 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Comparison of HRM and COSMO Models
COMPARISON OF HRM AND COSMO MODELS
HRM and COSMO Models: Brief Technical Details
HRM COSMO
Model Type Hydrostatic Non-Hydrostatic
Prediction ofw diagnostic approach direct approach
Grid-type Arakawa-C type Arakawa-C type
Vertical Grids Hybrid vertical coordinates Lorentz vertical grid staggering
Time Integration Split semi-implicit Second-order leapfrog HE-VI
Initial Conditions GME, ICON GME, ICON, ECMWF, COSMO
Lateral Boundary Conditions Davies (1976) Davies (1976)
Radiation Ritter and Geleyn (1992) Ritter and Geleyn (1992)
Convection Tiedtke (1989) OR Tiedtke (1989) ORBechtold (2001) Bechtold (2001)
Surface-Layer Processes Louis (1979) Louis (1979) ORTKE-Based Scheme
Vertical Diffusion (ABL) Mellor and Yamada (1974) Mellor and Yamada (1974) OR1-D TKE-Based Diagnostic Closure
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 9 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Comparison of HRM and COSMO Models
COMPARISON OF HRM AND COSMO MODELS
Operational Mode Applications of the COSMO Model
THE NECESSITY IS MOTHER OFINVENTION
For a given spatial domain (15°x 15°x 60-verical layers), generation of+48 hrs forecast (@ 0.10 degree grid resolution), the HRM wasconsuming about 50 minutes on Parallel Computing Facility.
For a similar configuration, the COSMO model took about 3+ hrs.
In addition to the above mentioned timings, manual intervention forentering the appropriate dates, and proper time-stamping in the modeloutput also required adequate attention.
⇓
Automation of the COSMO Model Runs
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 10 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Automation of the COSMO Model Runs
AUTOMATION OF THE COSMO MODEL RUNS
Automatic Scheduling of the COSMO-related Important Processes
Auto-shutdown and Auto-reboot at pre-assigned timings
Automatic file transfer of GME (ICON) model data from Surya server to SPL server
Unpacking the GME (ICON) data and identification of analysestime stamp
Generation of GME (ICON) to COSMO conversion control files
Generation of COSMO model runs control files
Self-execution of COSMO binaries
Generation of basic necessary plots with relevant time-stamps
Self-archival of the whole database in appropriate folder
⇓
DIRECTLY EXAMINE THE OUTPUT FIELDS IN PDF FORMATRoutine Forecast fields (based on 00 UTC) become ready by 0600UTC
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 11 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Automation of the COSMO Model Runs
Automated COSMO Forecast Fields: A Typical Sample
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 12 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Rainfall Simulations: Model vs. Observations
Rainfall Simulations from HRM and COSMO Models
Performance of HRM and COSMO Models on June 23, 2014A TYPICAL CASE STUDY ON “I SOLATED RAINFALL EVENTS OVERWESTERNCOAST OF INDIA”
Category : Rainfall (in mm)
No Rain : 0.0Very light Rain : 0.1 - 2.4Light Rain : 2.5 - 7.5Moderate Rain : 7.6 - 35.5Rather Heavy : 35.6 - 64.4Heavy Rain : 64.5 - 124.4Very Heavy Rain : 124.5 - 244.4Extremely Heavy Rain : > 244.5Exceptionally Heavy Rain : > 1200.0
Is HRM over-estimating ? Or COSMO under-estimating ? Or ????
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 13 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Rainfall Simulations: Model vs. Observations
Rainfall Simulations: Model Vs. Observations
Space-based Observations of Rainfall on 22-June-2014 (INSAT-3D SND)TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOUR (IN MM ) FOR 0600AND 1200 UTC
Image Courtesy: India Meteorology Department
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 14 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Rainfall Simulations: Model vs. Observations
Rainfall Simulations: Model Vs. Observations ...
Space-based Observations of Rainfall on 22-June-2014 (INSAT-3D SND)TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOUR (IN MM ) FOR 1800AND 0000 UTC (23-JUNE-2014)
Image Courtesy: India Meteorology Department
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 15 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Rainfall Simulations: Model vs. Observations
Rainfall Simulations: Model Vs. Observations ...
Space-based Observations of Rainfall on 23-June-2014 (INSAT-3D)DAILY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL (IN MM ) OBTAINED FROM INSAT-3D
Image Courtesy: INSAT Meteorological Data Processing System (IMDPS, MOSDAC)
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 16 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Rainfall Simulations: Model vs. Observations
Rainfall Simulations: Model Vs. Observations ...
Space-based Observations of Rainfall on 22-June-2014 (KALPANA-1)THREE-HOURLY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL (IN MM ) OBTAINED FROM KALPANA-1
Image Courtesy: http://www.mosdac.gov.in/
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 17 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) Rainfall Simulations: Model vs. Observations
Rainfall Simulations: Model Vs. Observations ...
Space-based Observations of Rainfall on 22-June-2014 (KALPANA-1)THREE-HOURLY ACCUMULATED RAINFALL (IN MM ) OBTAINED FROM KALPANA-1
Image Courtesy: http://www.mosdac.gov.in/
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 18 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) COSMO Simulations during PSLV-C28 (DMC3) Mission
COSMO Simulations during PSLV-C28 (DMC3) Mission
ONE OF THE MOST CLASSICAL CASES OF “FALSETHUNDERSTORM” ALERT
DWR Images Courtesy: Chennai IMD
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 19 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) COSMO Simulations during PSLV-C28 (DMC3) Mission
COSMO Simulations during PSLV-C28 (DMC3) Mission
ONE OF THE MOST CLASSICAL CASES OF “FALSETHUNDERSTORM” ALERT
COSMO Alerts (48 h before; 40 h before; 18 h before)
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 20 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) COSMO Simulations during PSLV-C28 (DMC3) Mission
COSMO Simulations during PSLV-C28 (DMC3) Mission
Time-Series of Rainfall over SHAR (COSMO Model Simulations)
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 21 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) COSMO Simulations during PSLV-C28 (DMC3) Mission
Rainfall Simulations: Model Vs. Observations ...
Important Inferences from the HRM and COSMO Simulations
HYPOTHESIS:
Similarity in the HRM and COSMO Model Runs [ (i) Initialised from the same GMEanalyses, and the lateral boundary conditions extracted from GME forecast fields; (ii)Similar model configurations were maintained for both the simulations. ]
EXAMINATION OF MODEL SIMULATIONS:
The INSAT-3D and KALPANA-1 observations clearly indicatedisolated rainfall(moderate) over the western coastline of the India, while the southern peninsularemained mostly dry. The HRM simulations had a tendency to create wide-spreadrainfall, whereas the COSMO could discriminate isolated spots of rainfall efficient zones.
SCIENTIFIC INFERENCES:
Despite the “Mass Flux Convection Parametrization Scheme”indicating favourableconditions for the light to moderate rainfall, the non-hydrostatic nature of COSMO (wbeing treated directly) allowed the discrimination of rainfall efficient zones from therainfall deficient zones.
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 22 / 23
Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) COSMO Simulations during PSLV-C28 (DMC3) Mission
“Some Ongoing Activities” & “New Initiatives”
Present Status of “Short-term” & “Long-term” Future Projec tions
COSMO Model Related Studies:
Ingestion of coastal ABL heights into COSMO modelRedefining the mixing length scale in ABL parametrization ofCOSMOTesting of new “Tropical” setup for rainfall simulations
Large Eddy Simulations:
Operationalisation of Parallelized Large Eddy Simulation(PALM) ModelFeasibility of COSMO Model runs for LES configuration
CO2 Fluxes over the Indian Region:
Installation of FLEXPART model and its operationalisationOffline coupling of the FLEXPART with COSMO Model
D. Bala Subrahamanyam (NAM) Annual SAC Reviews (July 2015) 22 July 2015 23 / 23